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haiguike

haiguike
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  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    "The poor weren't "fleeing" China in the 1980s"

    --- This claim is disingenuous and incorrect. The data is there that most of the capital are going into WMPs, savings accounts and money market escrow accounts like what Alibaba and Tencent are offering. China actually has less than half of the "capital investment abroad" rate than Western Europe and the USA. Expect more capital outflows for the next 10-20 years, but that does not mean the Chinese are trying to run away from China. Other than corrupt political elites, most Chinese investors are simply looking to diversify or spend their money based on lifestyle and education.
    Jun 25 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    "I hope china is able to pull it off, that will be good for world peace if they do because it will mean they are a truly democratic country."

    --- Wrong. None of the Asian tigers rose to prominence as a democratic country; they were all dictatorships when they reached their peak growth rates.

    "China will get old before it gets wealthy."

    --- Demographic claptrap from academia. Yes, the "easy" growth phase is over. It's quite apparent from the policies that the policymakers know this.

    "I could be wrong however, the fact that you are getting so upset would leave me to think you are arguing from a place of emotion as opposed to logic."

    --- I actually used to believe all of the western neo-liberal dogma and believed China was a huge bubble back in 2008. I even tried to convince my relatives to sell their properties at the time. Boy am I glad they told me that I'm crazy and that I don't understand China. I'm not being emotional; I'm just amused.
    Jun 25 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    "according to Patrick Chovanec..."

    --- You follow Patrick and share his biased views. It's clear that he is permanently bearish and biased against China. He always references data from academic sources to paint a discriminatory picture against China. He is a staunch supporter of student uprisings and believe China would have been a better place had the students of Tienanmen Square succeeded in overthrowing the government.

    "These racial explanations are just racism."

    --- Stop the race baiting. It's actually more of a result from millenniums of culture and policies. China has always been cutthroat competitive for the ordinary people. One must be competitive in order to survive and entrepreneurship was rewarded for thousands of years. Would it be racist to say that America, primarily Silicon Valley, is a hub for innovation, brilliance and hard work? I would say so. Shanghai has that same kind of energy today.

    "(C)onsumption as %age of (http://bit.ly/Qp6JjN) GDP has dropped from 35 years ago."

    --- Cause investments have picked up. Duh. This is a good thing. Don't let the academic neo-liberal economists or "experts" tell you otherwise. All countries go through business cycles. If the current slowdown in China is considered really bad, then China is really well managed and quite blessed.

    "and the Gini coefficient shows how household income is distributed"

    --- Oh spare me... More academic claptrap. Do you know how the gini coefficient originated? How is the gini coefficient practical when it comes to developmental economics? Do central planners plug in gini coefficient calculations when they form policies? Did Singapore or even the U.S. do this? Singapore has one of the worst gini coefficients in the world and oh boy are the people there struggling...

    "it shows that over the same time income inequality rose to among the highest levels in the world."

    --- More communist dogma (income inequality). While it is important to promote and maintain harmony and social stability, income inequality is a result of the debt infrastructure growth development phase. Japan and Korea had citizens who starved during this phase.

    "I and many other millionaires in China whom I have personally known are enough proof for me that that is not true."

    --- Many millionaires are coming up from selling goods through their virtual store and WeChat on the internet.

    "You seem to be very bitter, Arthur K."

    --- Or he clearly has an agenda. Our agenda is to make money and we are doing well in China, and will be doing much better for the many years to come. If China was so bad, then why are all the Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and Princeton graduates coming to China? Why are the "Hai Gui" and American Chinese like me going to China?
    Jun 25 03:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    "As I mentioned before, almost all Chinese were poor in the 1980s and basically nobody was very rich on paper, so of course wealth was evenly distributed and the share of GDP of "ordinary Chinese" was near 100%."

    --- I had dinner with a very wealthy businessman in his 160M RMB home in Shanghai last night. We ate exotic wild raw prawns and drank very expensive aged baijiu. He kept praising Deng Xiaoping - That if not for him, we would all still be eating nothing but rice and sweet potatoes. I look forward to using his connections for business advantages (It's called relationships; yes, they exist in the west too).
    Jun 25 02:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    ArthurK, name one rich country during its development phase that did not have the rich benefit first. This happened in Japan, USA, Korea, and everywhere else that you can think of.

    Economic growth has always been top down, not down up.
    Jun 25 02:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    Anyone who claims life for "Laobaixing" (ordinary people) was better in the 1980s than now is clearly delusional.
    Jun 25 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    "Things have not changed!"

    --- Only that more are able to do this now. In terms of quality of life and education, it will take perhaps more than our lifetime for China to even sniff at catching up to the US. Capitalism? The Chinese have already caught up and are already prepared to surpass.

    "If the welfare or entitlements laden govt budget doesn't overtake the economy."

    --- Detroit, Cleveland, Oakland, etc... No such cities in China.
    Jun 20 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    Shaduc (Or shall I say my friend in Shanghai who I already know):

    Bayer Healthcare, the German pharmaceutical, agriculture, and material science behemoth have already moved the majority of their R&D to China. Mercedes Benz have allowed tech transfer and access to their blueprints in order to be more competitive with BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen, who are all salivating at the market share in China.

    On top of that, there is a lot indigenous innovation in China when we take into account that China is still only 20% GDP per capita of the western developed nations. Tencent used to be a joke, but they are now very innovative, just like what happened with Toyota, Hyundai and Samsung. Companies like Alibaba have become giants to rival or even surpass the likes of Amazon, eBay, PayPal, etc...

    The groundwork investments for innovation have been carefully laid out. This is why I say with a lot of confidence that there will be innovation in China, and I say this to the CFOs and Executives of large Chinese companies who doubt this themselves.
    Jun 20 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    "I am seeing the Rich Chinese evacuate Mainland China, not stay.
    Certainly their capital flees."

    --- This is what western mainstream media is telling you, and you don't even bother to even want to know what is really going on. 1) Corrupt officials and their ties, 2) Diversification, 3) Investors seeking better alternatives. It's really as simple as that. When real estate in the west is stupendously cheaper than Chinese real estate, the Chinese buy it all up, especially when they are so cash rich.

    "Taiwan made the transition somewhat successfully, we'll have to see if China is able to."

    --- Mainland China is far better managed than Taiwan ever was, and China has 1.4 billion people to manage. As for the details, it's not worth going over sideline commentators like you. It's only important for real entrepreneurs and investors.

    "I am old enough to remember when Japan was taking over the world economically, (too young for the military attempt) so I may be a little too jaded in looking for tidal waves."

    --- A lot of people compare Japan's uprising to China's current growth. Some go as far as comparing it to the USSR. Just because you are old, it does not make you wise or correct.

    Cheers.
    Jun 20 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    So if Steve Jobs was born in Tanzania or Zimbabwe and stayed his entire life, would he have had a chance to be as innovative?

    Following is all you need to do and do very well when you are only at around US$500 GDP per capita 20 years ago.

    Now China has taken the lead in renewable energy, thorium technology, and much much more. You will be seeing the giants such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi come after the international and western markets very soon.

    One thing we know for sure, Benny: Your perspective on China is either very off or very outdated.
    Jun 20 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    "They know they have to move up the value chain. In order to do that, they will need a large population of free thinking, innovative people."

    --- Only the 1% is needed for that. Who in the right mind would expect a country with 20% GDP per capita of the U.S. to take the lead in innovation already? You are in for a surprise over the next 20 years though. Just like you didn't see the present China 20 years ago, you certainly won't see the future China 20 years from now. The Silicon Valley and wall street cultures are already flooding into China and it will be a tidal wave.
    Jun 20 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    WeChat is far superior to Whatsapp as well. Just let these guys live in a box. I prefer to spend my time evaluating where the trends are going and riding them for my own benefit. Do you want to be rich or do you want to be "right" on Seeking Alpha?
    Jun 20 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    20 years ago, very few people imagined China would become the industrial, commercial, investment and military powerhouse that China is today. Currently, very few would even dare to imagine China becoming a country known for its clean energy, clean air and water, and safe food, similar to what Japan is known for once it became a developed country. The same will happen to China, except on a much larger scale.

    China just signed a US$400B deal with Russia and it's only the first deal of its kind for clean and efficient energy. Contrary to many analysts' thermal coal forecasts, China is clearly looking for alternative, albeit more expensive ways to meet the rising energy demands.

    Very few people see Shanghai becoming the Financial and Commercial center of the Pacific, but that's the trend I am seeing. Like Jim Rogers said, if you went to London in the early 1800s and NYC in the early 1900s, you did very well. In the 21st century, that city is Shanghai.
    Jun 19 02:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4 Stages Of Chinese Growth [View article]
    Why does anyone still respond to Benny? Isn't it clear that the guy is not even trying to be objective?
    Jun 18 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia-China Deal Rattling The Markets [View article]
    There are many alternatives for China to buy from. Mongolia only has one viable buyer. Money will eventually overtake the those who stubbornly fight against this process. I predict this will not go smoothly for Mongolia until there is a tremendous consolidation of power. There is simply too much money in the potential deals with China - Potentially USD30-100 billion in deals made over the remainder of this decade; therefore, there will be very greedy politicians who fight tooth and nail to get a piece of this action. This infighting will not be good for the common people and overall good of Mongolia.

    Ben Gee, Mongolia has the population of a Tier 4 Chinese city. A tier 3 city can have around 5 million in China. Mongolia has 2.7 million with 1.3 million in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar.
    Jun 15 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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