Seeking Alpha

haiguike

haiguike
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View haiguike's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Yuan And Won: Now This Is New [View article]
    China had been building up the military since 1990 due to the Gulf War. From on the ground insiders and military intelligence officers (Europeans and Americans btw) I have spoken to, they all say that the Chinese military is either already on par with the U.S. military or will be by 2016 or 2019.

    The U.S. is energy and food independent. China is not and there are tremendous risks to China if the logistics of food and energy imports are intercepted.
    Dec 8, 2012. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yuan And Won: Now This Is New [View article]
    Hu's leadership would not work in the next ten years. It seems that Xi Jinping recognizes this, so he is cutting down on corruption, allowing non-SOEs to be more competitive, and cautiously embracing reforms.
    Dec 7, 2012. 03:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yuan And Won: Now This Is New [View article]
    You think Hu Jintao is a good leader? China would have done a lot better with someone else.
    Dec 7, 2012. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yuan And Won: Now This Is New [View article]
    Japan needs a good leader to guide the country out of the doldrums. An economically vibrant Japan that does not foolishly get into territorial disputes is good for all of Asia.
    Dec 6, 2012. 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    I stand corrected on my remark of inflation in the 90s. That was during the late 70s.
    Dec 3, 2012. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Is Not Manipulating The Yuan: U.S. Treasury [View article]
    The suicide rate at Foxconn is actually lower than the national average. People are lining up for these "slavery" jobs. Actually, wages at Foxconn have been steadily rising in the past few years - So much that Foxconn is considering moving more inland and replacing workers with robots. Foxconn would love to consider cheaper "slavery" in countries such as Vietnam; unfortunately, the level of productivity over cost in other countries still pale in comparison to China.

    It's kind of hypocritical that you make a moral argument against AAPL and WMT, yet you're buying containers from China. You're the prototypical westerner on his high horse romanticizing about emerging markets when his own developed country has already had the luxury to go through the development phase.
    Dec 2, 2012. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    There is very strong correlation between QE announcements and the rise of gold prices. In the end, it's all based on global human emotions. I agree that inflation has not gotten that out of hand yet; if anything, we are still going through cycles of global deflation. When inflation was rampant in the 90s, gold prices steadily dropped.

    Gold will still be going up, and it may even get to $10,000 per ounce; however, for every action there is a reaction. Once gold hits its peak, it will come tumbling down and stay down for a long time, just like what happened with real estate.
    Dec 2, 2012. 07:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    Gold and silver have been used as mediums of exchange for millenniums. If you had a brain, you would exchange the gold for paper currency (900% appreciation vs the USD in the past 12 years) and then buy your groceries.

    The USD will be systematically inflated. You can hold your paper. I'll hold my gold.

    If gold isn't money, then why are all the central banks hoarding it when it has very little industrial value?
    Dec 1, 2012. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    The smart money is already in gold. If gold is so expensive, why did Paulson and Soros recently buy billions worth of gold? China is already the largest producer of gold and by 2015 the consumption of gold in China is projected to double its production. India's insatiable hunger for gold isn't stopping anytime soon.

    These charts only date back to a few decades. Gold has been established for millenniums. Centuries ago, gold and silver were the only mediums of exchange in trade. In the past century excluding the past 10 years, the Asia Pacific had little influence on the price of gold. Now it is the main driver.
    Nov 27, 2012. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    "Still people of mongolia would prefer live in poverty rather than seeing the wealth stolen by gov made billionaires."

    --- There is no wealth if it's just buried in the ground with no capital, expertise, and work force to extract and buyers to buy from Mongolia. I definitely don't like oligarchies and you're right about these billionaires being artificially, government made. However, I cannot agree with having the attitude that you would rather live in poverty than to have some wealth trickle down to you. With OT, there will be plenty of entrepreneurial opportunities. Rather than expecting a handout from the taxes, you should exploit missing nodes within the supply chain and capitalize on it. I have several Mongolian friends who are self-made millionaires and they did not get it from mining license handouts.

    "we don't have problem with you, I don't expect you to love my people or my land. you would try to make as much as possible from us. that is how business works or not?"

    --- Foreigners are bringing in the foreign capital, the expertise and supply to meet the existing demand. I am currently compensating my staff more than twice as much as Mongolian companies are. I am 100% legit by paying all taxes to the government of Mongolia and I am providing my staff with business development training and individual career development. I love the country of Mongolia and I wish the people and the country's sovereignty and economic growth the very best, but the anti foreigner sentiment and policies are disturbing.

    "without fixing the problem within the gov we will stay poor forever, doesn't matter how many big mines we have. rich will get richer"

    --- I agree with this statement; however, this only means Mongolians should fight against its own government by demanding to honor the existing OT contract. Raising the tax rate to 50% will not benefit you at all directly, but only the oligarchs. Honoring the current agreement would actually provide the average Mongolian with many more opportunities to make a difference and establish a lifetime's worth of wealth.

    Many other countries are jumping on the resource nationalism bandwagon, Mongolia should learn from Singapore's and Dubai's history and capitalize on this wonderful opportunity. Singapore had no resources; they only had a port, but it was their government and excellent policies that made Singapore the #1 GDP per capita nation in the world. Mongolia has the potential to be even greater; sadly, I doubt the full potential will come to fruition within our lifetime.
    Nov 19, 2012. 02:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Grand Bargain: Are Fiscal Spending Cuts And Revenue Increases Both Needed? Part 1 [View article]
    Yeah, I know plenty of guys who own a shell company in HK just for the purpose you mentioned.
    Nov 15, 2012. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    I agree with you completely. The GoM should have started off one step at a time with smaller scale projects. But now that OT has invested many billions into development, the GoM should simply take this as a learning process and be more savvy on the future negotiations. That's exactly what the Chinese did and they experienced 30 years of double digit growth with FDI coming from HK, Japan, and the U.S.

    The problem with the GoM is that they are trying to strong arm when they have very little leverage in the midst of a global economic recession.

    You are certainly right that there will be good opportunities at the bottom of the next bust cycle. I am currently accumulating cash and plan on starting an RMB fund to invest in Mongolia, 3rd and 4th tier cities in China, and Myanmar (have reliable and resourceful friends there; visiting next year).

    In all honesty, the bust cycle that is happening right now is probably good for my career. I just got into Mongolia in April 2012 and I am involved in two businesses that are all about generating positive cash flow. I should able to do much more by the bottom of the bust cycle.
    Nov 14, 2012. 11:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can They Spare A Penny A Click For International Coverage? [View instapost]
    I actually became an avid reader on SA due to Jon Springer. He and Moon Kil Woong got me hooked. Wherever Jon is going, I'm going as well!
    Nov 14, 2012. 10:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    Nothing wrong with greed. The problem is that Mongolia is not playing by the rules. In the long run, the renegotiation attempts and power plays will hurt Mongolia.
    Nov 14, 2012. 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    35% is untenable when Mongolia does not the workforce, expertise, and capital and OT is providing tens of thousands of high paying jobs, training, and education? Mongolia has at least 5 more projects the size of OT in the pipeline; they can seek better negotiation terms in the future. OT is the catalyst for Mongolia's economic growth and it is foolish to be shortsighted now.

    Economic imperialism - What a joke. China could have played the sweatshop, slave labor imperialism card 20 years ago, but they were smart and strategically planned for decades ahead. Now look where they are at. Mongolia can't even seem to plan one year ahead. What government is going to be in power one year from now? No one is certain.

    Not only can Rio Tinto spend years to do international arbitration, but Mongolia loses credibility with international organizations, financial institutions, and individual investors.

    I will re-emphasize that Rio Tinto has already poured billions and is projected to spend 7.1 billion on this project. To seek renegotiation now when OT has just barely begun production is dishonorable and foolish.
    Nov 14, 2012. 09:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
937 Comments
968 Likes