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haiguike

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  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]
    Taiwan is suppose to be developed whereas everyone in mainland China knows that the top government officials have amassed billions in wealth through corruption. Thank you for making my point for me.
    Jun 7, 2014. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]
    We can put a positive spin on Detroit too if we really tried. Yes, Chen Shui Bin. Isn't he that pro independence, ultra nationalist Taiwanese that stole billions from his own people?
    Jun 6, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]
    Sure, you can have all of that AFTER the economic reforms. When you have democratic movements without the economic development, you get India, Thailand, Indonesia, and many countries in Africa.
    Jun 5, 2014. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]
    I have brokers and friends in Taiwan, so I do visit Taiwan. Brokers are fine because they're making money from the rich. My friends, the ones who regretfully aspired to be doctors and other honorable professions, tell me how awful it is in Taiwan. People are ignorantly snobbish, expects the best service, yet do not want to pay for anything. The streets and infrastructure are filthy. People are jobless and the ones that have work like the doctors are making very little. They hate it. They want to get out. Most are still ignorantly pompous when it comes to their attitude on mainland Chinese; however, that changes very quickly once they have visited mainland China. The ones that have are even considering moving to China.

    Mainland tourists visit Taiwan, but do they want to live there? Mainland tourists visit everywhere in Europe, U.S., Canada, Australia, Korea, Singapore, HK, and even Japan. Just name any country with even the tiniest attraction and you will see hordes of mainland Chinese tourists there.

    A lot of young Taiwanese girls who failed to become famous actresses now come to mainland China to work as "PR managers" in night clubs. I wonder why that is? Could it be that there are better opportunities and they are making much more money in mainland Chinese cities like Shanghai and Xiamen?

    Taiwan has no innovation and their manufacturing base have completely been replaced by mainland manufacturers. China now having rising companies such as Xiaomi, etc... The only industries left for Taiwan are pop singers and aspiring actors/actresses and perhaps Foxconn who uses almost all mainland Chinese labor.
    Jun 5, 2014. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]

    Mongolia had a democratic revolution in 1990 where students such as Elbedorj (current president of Mongolia) organized a mass hunger strike (no different than Tienanmen). The communist party at the time resigned and refused to shed Mongolian blood. Look at where Mongolia is now. Look at where China is now.

    Lee Kuan Yew, one of the greatest and most brilliant authoritarian minds and leaders of all time, threw his political oppositions all in jail. Now look at Singapore.

    Japan, Taiwan and Korea started their economic development as a military dictatorship government.

    Deng is the mastermind as China's catalyst for economic development. China is very lucky to have a leader in President Xi Jinping who is trying to become Deng 2.0. China has not had such a powerful leader in Xi with so much public, PLA and CCP support since Deng. I would argue that Xi even has far more public support than Deng did. Deng controlled the Politburo, PLA and CCP, but he did not have much public support at the time. Xi has it all.

    The results are clear. Never has there ever been a country in the history of mankind that has gone through such a fast and remarkable period of development and growth that China has gone through in the past 25 years.
    Jun 5, 2014. 01:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]
    Finally, a sensible comment. Thank you, Christopher.
    Jun 5, 2014. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]
    Has your head been stuck in the sand for the past 10 years? Your response makes you sound like an academic or hippie living under a box in the U.S. where your only sources of information on China are through Fox, CNBC, etc...

    There are way over 1 million Taiwanese living in mainland China at the moment. Taiwan has been in a long term slump for a long time. Go visit there and you will see broken down infrastructure and young kids struggling to make ends meet. Many of these young Taiwanese are coming to China to work and practically ALL of Taiwan's entrepreneurs and business owners are intertwined with the mainland Chinese economy.

    Try again hippie.
    Jun 5, 2014. 11:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiananmen 25 Years Later. I Was There. I Was Wrong [View article]
    Once again, white knight political scientists bringing up moral arguments to an article on economics. Don't you have some homeless people to save in San Francisco or Detroit?
    Jun 5, 2014. 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Has Become The Favorite Country For Electric Vehicle Companies [View article]
    PF, I have just figured out that the funds although technically are supposed to pay taxes to China, none of them actually do and the government doesn't seem to care. I will be learning a lot more over the course over this month. It seems that a third party RQFII route through a Cayman entity without having a nexus in HK is the best way to go.
    Jun 4, 2014. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Pettis: Hard Commodity Prices Will Continue To Fall With Decade-Long Chinese Slowdown [View article]
    Ben Gee, simple yet completely logical and true. It's amazing how people can be so oblivious to monetary policy fundamentals. When the economy grows by 6x in the past 10 years and 15x in the past 20 years, money supply needs to expand. It is impossible to have a fast growing developing economy without expansion in debt and money supply.

    The reason these high interest rate trusts and loans have not defaulted for so long is precisely because China was growing so fast and money supply grew exponentially. Now that China is slowing down, we are seeing these financial instruments unravel; however, China is still growing at a much faster than the developed economies and still demands money supply to further expand.
    Jun 3, 2014. 11:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trigger For The Next China Economic Correction [View article]
    Since when did economic growth result in or even correlate with stock market growth? Was the U.S. economy great from March 2009 to now? No. Then why did the S&P500 triple in growth?

    When multi billion dollar investment firms look at U.S. valuations of 17-20x P/E and see Chinese equities on the HKSE at 9x, what do you think they will do? With all the money supply expanding all over the world and with China's real estate, infrastructure, mining and trust investments coming to a ceiling, where do you think the liquidity will flow into? The stock market competes for the exact pool of funds that banks, real estate, and private businesses are competing for. When interest rates are declining and the government determined to keep growth rates steady at 7.5% but capping real estate and infrastructure, therefore stimulating and expanding money supply and with more than double the arbitrage in price between the U.S. and Chinese equities, where do you think the money will go?

    The word going around the investment management circles in HK, those who manage billions each, are saying that it's time to buy Chinese equities. Their executions take a very long time. This is where you the retail investor and small to medium investment firms have an advantage, but as usual, few will be able to.
    May 30, 2014. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trigger For The Next China Economic Correction [View article]
    "I believe that the premise of the quote I used was that individual investors hold the majority of their wealth in real estate. Some very wealthy individuals own large companies and their wealth is stored in those businesses."

    --- This is quite normal. China has been having double digit growth for decades. If they held cash in repressed interest rates (quite smart btw), these individuals and families would be broke. In the span of just 20 years, one used to be able to buy a bowl of beef noodles for 1 jiao (1/10 yuan). Now a bowl of noodles with very little beef costs at least 10 yuan. Again, this is quite normal for developing countries. In a developing country, the stock exchange is infantile, bonds are practically nonexistent in the retail market, gold got hot for only a short period of time. The only viable investments have been real estate, private businesses, and wealth management trusts. As for real estate in the residential market, most of the properties are purchased in cash. This has created an enormous amount of savings and wealth for the Chinese government. Stating that a small minority owns most of the assets is no different than how it is in all countries around the world. The 20% owns 95% of stocks in the U.S.; 5% owns 80% of stocks.

    "But I cannot buy into the idea that the majority of Chinese workers moving from the poor rural areas are coming to the cities with a six-figure nest egg looking for a $10,000 a year job with poor working conditions."

    --- This is simply fantasy land talk. Can a migrant worker in the U.S. buy a NYC, SF or LA property? No? Then why do you think they should be able to in a tier 1 or tier 2 city in China, which is 4x the population of the U.S. and China has much less livable land space than the U.S. The fact still remains that most of the residential properties are purchased in 100% cash.

    I am explaining. You simply aren't seeing it from your office/home in the U.S. through western sources/channels of mass media, data and articles.
    May 29, 2014. 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Weekly Update [View instapost]
    Jon, because Russia is practically giving it away to China at a very discounted price. China did not make any NatGas deal with Russia previously because Russia was quoting the same price they gave to Europe.

    China will not put too many of their eggs in one basket with Russian natural gas. China also sees this as a great opportunity to be more intimidating to the U.S. in the midst of the current disputes with Japan, Vietnam and Philippines.
    May 29, 2014. 11:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trigger For The Next China Economic Correction [View article]
    "How many average Chinese workers could afford to buy a $250,000 to $450,000 apartment on an annual salary of $10,000?"

    --- A lot. Wages, taxes, actual income and savings work very different between the West and China. Yes, China definitely needs an annual real estate tax, but the government has already made so much money from the land sales. The CCP has practically made most of their money from import duties, land sales, etc... Capital gains tax for citizens is zero.

    "Real estate wealth is most of the wealth in China," Hufbauer said. "So, anything to do with the property sector is pretty sensitive."

    --- Not being the #1 manufacturer, #1 producer, #1 exporter, and soon to be #1 consumer in the world? These have nothing to do with it?
    May 29, 2014. 11:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Weekly Update [View instapost]
    The coal would have to be mined, washed and processed into liquid gas in Mongolia. Let's assume Mongolia gets no more than 10% VAT of the money. It's still 3 billion USD which is enormous for Mongolia.

    China has no problems paying up if Mongolia can help alleviate its energy and pollution concerns. It's well known that Xi, Li, and China's top leaders have put reducing pollution and the burning of coal as a top priority for China. It's up to the GOM to negotiate a good deal for the long term and not get swindled again by looking to take the fast money upfront.
    May 29, 2014. 05:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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