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  • Is It Time To Take A Position In Turquoise Hill? [View article]
    It's funny how 'contrarian' investors on CNBC etc never talk about ridiculously under-valued stocks like TRQ. TRQ (as well as Ivanhoe) have massive, proven gold and copper reserves and incredibly strong balance sheets with nearly zero debt. What's holding these stocks back is of course weak commodity prices. Metals are always the last stocks to rise in a cycle, so what we're seeing is very much in line with historical trends.
    When the metals market improves (probably over the next 24 months), we should see TRQ realise its natural base value of $20.
    May 21, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Deere's Economics [View article]
    One thing I haven't seen discussed is DE's mining division. How does everyone see this segment performing?
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere - Executing In A Tough Environment, Through The Cycle Appeal Remains [View article]
    What I meant is that JD is still a fairly junior player in construction compared to Cat; and its overall contribution to the company sales remains only about 15%. There is also the issue of possible competition from foreign players in the US; and questionable prospects in the international market due to Chinese machinery.
    Aug 18, 2014. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere - Executing In A Tough Environment, Through The Cycle Appeal Remains [View article]
    The article focuses mostly on the agri segment, and the discussion on construction and forestry addresses only 2014 performance. The fact is that C&F has been weak since 2009 and it is questionable whether John Deere can compete effectively against Cat. This could worsen in 2015 as Kubota enters the market.
    Aug 18, 2014. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere - Executing In A Tough Environment, Through The Cycle Appeal Remains [View article]
    Great article! One question: does anyone know why Deere sold John Deere Landscapes to Clayton in October 2013 and how they plan to use the $465 million cash for this transaction?
    Aug 18, 2014. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big-cap bank bulls worried about a little too much love being shown for the hot sector may take comfort from an Atlantic cover and story entitled "What's Inside America's Banks?" It rehashes worries about the opaqueness of bank balance sheets and seems to draw quite a bit from a frustrated Bill Ackman who unloaded his Citigroup stake at a big loss right around the bottom last summer. [View news story]
    Whether BAC is overvalued or not really depends on the price you use as a starting point. Some analysts are saying its sharp rise since the summer from under $6 a share to its current price over $11 makes it overvalued. However, if you use its pre-crisis price of over $40 a share; and even its post-crisis norm of over $15 as a basis, the current levels look quite low. This is especially true if we consider that the overall condition of BAC's finances (and the sector in general) have improved considerably since it was sitting around the $15 level in 2010.
    Jan 5, 2013. 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shaken: 10 Economic Disasters Threatening Global Financial Markets [View article]
    The following is a summary of a briefing delivered by one of the UK's top scientific advisors on the Japan nuclear situation:

    1) The wind direction is not important to the nuclear fall-out and Tokyo is too far away to be seriously affected.

    2) If water spraying continues of the reactors, the situation will improve considerably.

    3) Japanese authorities' findings (including on radioactivity levels) are being independently monitored by a number of organisations and are deemed to be accurate.

    4) The Japan situation is not comparable to Chernobyl, where the reactor went into meltdown and the encasement, which exploded, was left to burn for weeks without any control. Even with Chernobyl, a 30 km exclusion zone would have been adequate to protect human health. The problem was that most people became sick from eating contaminated food, crops, milk and water for years afterward, as no attempt was made to measure radioactivity in the food supply at that time or warn people of the dangers. The secrecy over the Chernobyl explosion contrasts with the very public coverage of the Fukushima crisis.

    5) Regarding Iodine supplements, experts say this was only necessary for those who inhaled radiation (those in the exclusion zone or workers near the site) or through consumption of contaminated food/water supplies.

    6) The Head of the British School stated that there is no need to close the school due to fears of radiation. There may well be other reasons - structural damage or possible new quakes - but the radiation fear is not supported by scneice.

    The briefing was frank and credible. The concensus was that the earthquake and the tsunami were far more important than the problems concerning the nuclear reactor.
    Mar 22, 2011. 09:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Arab Revolution Result in Higher Oil Prices? [View article]
    AFP news service just reported that Saudi authorities have fired on protesters -- it appears that the Day of Rage is materialising. These events seem to be following the same trajectory as demonstrations in neighbouring Arab countries.
    What puzzles me is that oil is not yet reacting.
    My theory is that the negative economic news coming out of China is dragging down oil markets and causing traders to overlook the unrest.
    However, even if China is heading for a dip, then I find it hard to believe that it would compensate for real, or perceived loss of production in Saudi.
    I also wonder about events in Iran. The recent sidelining of Rafsanjani and Mousavi could pour gasoline on the embers and lead to additional unrest in that country.
    Today's drop leaves a lot up to the imagination, but I am very tempted to go long on oil.
    Mar 10, 2011. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Bad Products, Good Valuation [View article]
    The main threat facing Nokia is that their competitors are slowly chipping away at their market share in nearly all reas of their business. However, the new CEO seems to be cognicent of this fact, evidenced by the nasty memo he sent to the staff last month.

    Worst case scenario -- the company has a long way to go before it runs into trouble. More realistically, Nokia's fundimentals of sales and cash are strong, and it pays an attractive divided. Moreover, the bad news on this company has already been priced in to the stock.

    I think at this price ($8.60), the stock is way undervalued, and is being virtually ignored by mainstream analysts. In the absence of a market correction, I would be surprised if it didn't see btwn $9.50 and $10.50 within the next couple of months.
    Mar 9, 2011. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Arab Revolution Result in Higher Oil Prices? [View article]
    Interesting article.

    One of the most under-reported and important issues relating to oil prices concerns the planned protests in Saudi set for this month. Saudi's internal problems have been simmering for some time, but are largely unknown due to media blackouts in the country. Like in Bahrain, Iraq and Iran, Saudi's oil-producing areas are predominantly Shia, despite the monarchy being Sunni. Relations between the local Shia and the central government have never been good, and the recent Shia-led uprising in Bahrain has fanned of local discontent.

    If these protests materialise, the disruption to world oil supplies will be enormous and would place far more upward pressure on oil prices than the disturbances in Libya.

    I will be keeping an eye on the news coverage of Saudi in the lead-up to the first protests planned for this Friday. If it looks like the protest movement is spreading to the desert kingdom, I will definitely be long on oil.
    Mar 9, 2011. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment