I don't think so. 'Sell-in' versus 'sell-through' is an important distinction. We really don't know how many phones Samsung is selling to end users. They could tell us, but they don't.
The ecosystem is just not 'sticky' so that the success of 1 Samsung phone doesn't necessitate the success of the following version of the phone. Any other Android would suit the buyer just fine.
Samsung is doing well, but far from being broken, Apple's magic is not diminished one whit. The stock, on the other hand, is a different story. I'm bullish over the next 2 yr period, but I can understand other sentiments on the stock. It just shouldn't be confused with the continual improvement in sales of their top quality products.
Market Share Trends Make Apple Look Vulnerable [View article]
"So you are saying that if Apple had held share it wouldn't have earned an additional $3.5 billion?"
No, that's not what I'm saying.
"Or am I missing something?"
Yes, you are missing something.
"I am pretty sure that if Apple's share drops to zero it will negatively impact its profits."
You have a clear understanding of the obvious.
Instead of setting up a straw man and knocking it down, why not address the topic?
You made an incorrect assumption in your article that hypothesized a selling price at a different market share level. I pointed out that they are inversely related quantities: in order to achieve higher market share, lower prices are required, all other things being equal.
I prefer Apple to continue to grow sales of iPhones and iPads (as they have been), while maintaining excellent levels of profitability (as they have been). If Apple had a choice to either increase profits or increase market share, I would prefer they choose increased profits. Apple's action indicate they agree, and as an investor, I'm happy about that.
Market Share Trends Make Apple Look Vulnerable [View article]
"The loss of almost six percentage points of market share by Apple amounts to nearly 13 million units at an average selling price of about $600 and 47% margin. For Apple, the cost was over $3.5 billion in lost margin."
Not true. Market share is inversely related to sales price. Apple is looking for profits, and achieving them. Apple is interested in maintaining brand cache, and achieving it.
PS. The only numbers that don't differ between the tables are the Apple numbers. Why? Because Apple actually releases figures... and the numbers they report are actually sold to end consumers. You won't find them in BOGO sales. Companies that can earn a profit, do so. Other companies settle for lower margins and fight over market share.
I think cloud services will be largely commoditized, and erode MSFT's traditionally high-margin software business.
I think the consumer PC industry will continue to deteriorate, while MSFT continues to struggle to gain traction in the tablet and smartphone markets, further eroding margins as they persist at pushing into the hardware business.
On top of those obstacles, MSFT appears to be fully valued at these levels, having risen sharply as of late. Too much, too fast to my eyes.
Apple's Huge Buyback Could Attract Imitators [View article]
True, but it is we, the shareholders, who are receiving the money. There is now zero chance for Apple to squander 'those' earnings on poor acquisitions or leadership salaries (not that they have a history of doing so). I would be happy if Apple promised to return every penny to me that they felt they didn't need for R&D or other business needs. If they did so by borrowing at historically low rates and paying back the principal over time to people willing to accept low yielding bonds, that suits me just fine.
Samsung Is Eating Apple's Breakfast, Lunch, And Dinner [View article]
It's not meaningful to compare earnings YoY here. Apple released the most recent iPhone version (5) a further distance in advance of last qtr than the release of the previous most recent version (4s) was released in advance of the year earlier qtr.
Whether one looks at unit sales, in which case LGV provided the appropriate high end comparison, or profit, in which case Apple still dominates, Apple is clearly eating everyone's lunch. This will become even more evident again when Apple releases the next iPhone.
Then, a few qtrs later, we can go through all of this nonsensical apples to oranges comparisons again.
Apple's Huge Buyback Could Attract Imitators [View article]
No, not free, but extremely cheap.
So cheap, in fact, that the savings Apple will get from not paying a dividend on the shares they will buy back will exceed the interest payments on the debt they issue.
Apple's Huge Buyback Could Attract Imitators [View article]
But Apple isn't stagnating in the US. They grew sales at both the major carriers YoY.
And why ignore international growth, which in china was at a 3 digit percentage clip, even without China Mobile?
What is your argument supporting your claim that Apple needs more than the over $100 Billion they will have in the bank by the end of this year *after* the dividend hike and repurchase plan?
Apple grew R&D YoY, brand satisfaction is highest in the industry across multiple product lines, iPhone and iPad sales are growing, and even Macs are a ray oh hope in an otherwise abysmal PC industry...
I just don't see the reality of the situation reflected in your comments.
But GOOG is trading at over 24x earnings. As a mega market cap company, anything short of a fantastic report fails to justify such a rich valuation.
I suspect the stock will fall hard at some point when no one expects it in the next two years. Some lame baloney justification will be given for the plunge, but the truth will be that they were far too richly valued.
Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
The ecosystem is just not 'sticky' so that the success of 1 Samsung phone doesn't necessitate the success of the following version of the phone. Any other Android would suit the buyer just fine.
Samsung is doing well, but far from being broken, Apple's magic is not diminished one whit. The stock, on the other hand, is a different story. I'm bullish over the next 2 yr period, but I can understand other sentiments on the stock. It just shouldn't be confused with the continual improvement in sales of their top quality products.
Market Share Trends Make Apple Look Vulnerable [View article]
No, that's not what I'm saying.
"Or am I missing something?"
Yes, you are missing something.
"I am pretty sure that if Apple's share drops to zero it will negatively impact its profits."
You have a clear understanding of the obvious.
Instead of setting up a straw man and knocking it down, why not address the topic?
You made an incorrect assumption in your article that hypothesized a selling price at a different market share level. I pointed out that they are inversely related quantities: in order to achieve higher market share, lower prices are required, all other things being equal.
I prefer Apple to continue to grow sales of iPhones and iPads (as they have been), while maintaining excellent levels of profitability (as they have been). If Apple had a choice to either increase profits or increase market share, I would prefer they choose increased profits. Apple's action indicate they agree, and as an investor, I'm happy about that.
Market Share Trends Make Apple Look Vulnerable [View article]
Not true. Market share is inversely related to sales price. Apple is looking for profits, and achieving them. Apple is interested in maintaining brand cache, and achieving it.
PS. The only numbers that don't differ between the tables are the Apple numbers. Why? Because Apple actually releases figures... and the numbers they report are actually sold to end consumers. You won't find them in BOGO sales. Companies that can earn a profit, do so. Other companies settle for lower margins and fight over market share.
Microsoft: Time To Take A Break [View article]
I think cloud services will be largely commoditized, and erode MSFT's traditionally high-margin software business.
I think the consumer PC industry will continue to deteriorate, while MSFT continues to struggle to gain traction in the tablet and smartphone markets, further eroding margins as they persist at pushing into the hardware business.
On top of those obstacles, MSFT appears to be fully valued at these levels, having risen sharply as of late. Too much, too fast to my eyes.
Bought some leap OOTM puts on Friday.
Apple's Huge Buyback Could Attract Imitators [View article]
Amazon Is A Toll Bridge: Next Toll - Ads [View article]
5 yrs ago amazon was expected to earn over $5 per share in 2012... they lost 9 cents per share.
I think the smart money is starting to see that they weren't as smart as they thought.
Samsung Is Eating Apple's Breakfast, Lunch, And Dinner [View article]
Whether one looks at unit sales, in which case LGV provided the appropriate high end comparison, or profit, in which case Apple still dominates, Apple is clearly eating everyone's lunch. This will become even more evident again when Apple releases the next iPhone.
Then, a few qtrs later, we can go through all of this nonsensical apples to oranges comparisons again.
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Like salmon swimming upstream, it's a miracle to behold.
Apple's Huge Buyback Could Attract Imitators [View article]
So cheap, in fact, that the savings Apple will get from not paying a dividend on the shares they will buy back will exceed the interest payments on the debt they issue.
So, pretty close to free.
Apple's Huge Buyback Could Attract Imitators [View article]
And why ignore international growth, which in china was at a 3 digit percentage clip, even without China Mobile?
What is your argument supporting your claim that Apple needs more than the over $100 Billion they will have in the bank by the end of this year *after* the dividend hike and repurchase plan?
Apple grew R&D YoY, brand satisfaction is highest in the industry across multiple product lines, iPhone and iPad sales are growing, and even Macs are a ray oh hope in an otherwise abysmal PC industry...
I just don't see the reality of the situation reflected in your comments.
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Can you picture the herd all racing for the exit simultaneously when the time comes?
The Apple-Microsoft Comparison Is Valid [View article]
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Apple Earnings Preview: Playing The Analyst Game [View article]
Google's Phony Beat [View article]
But GOOG is trading at over 24x earnings. As a mega market cap company, anything short of a fantastic report fails to justify such a rich valuation.
I suspect the stock will fall hard at some point when no one expects it in the next two years. Some lame baloney justification will be given for the plunge, but the truth will be that they were far too richly valued.