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xan

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  • More from Tepper: "We're going to get this hyper-drive market," unless the Fed starts tapering its purchases, he says (referencing 1999), adding the June meeting wouldn't be a bad time to get started. He pulls out this chart from a recent FRBNY report, showing stocks remain cheap - the equity premium to bonds is as high as it's been in the last 50 years. [View news story]
    Looks like Tepper got to sell some of his book at the bargain price of 1650 today... mission accomplished?
    May 14 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Tepper: "We're going to get this hyper-drive market," unless the Fed starts tapering its purchases, he says (referencing 1999), adding the June meeting wouldn't be a bad time to get started. He pulls out this chart from a recent FRBNY report, showing stocks remain cheap - the equity premium to bonds is as high as it's been in the last 50 years. [View news story]
    I think it really depends on the kind of taper. If they reduce purchases by say 5bln per month then it might cause more of a sideways move. I can envisage that the initial move down may be sharp but ultimately the "Bernanke Put" would remain and an equities floor would still exist.....
    May 14 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Tepper: "We're going to get this hyper-drive market," unless the Fed starts tapering its purchases, he says (referencing 1999), adding the June meeting wouldn't be a bad time to get started. He pulls out this chart from a recent FRBNY report, showing stocks remain cheap - the equity premium to bonds is as high as it's been in the last 50 years. [View news story]
    This guy is a complete tool. How can you use a chart of anything in comparison to bonds to justify valuations. Yields are artificially low, look at Junk for peat's sake. The moment things become even remotely unstable the rush for the exits will be ridiculous. Tepper should know better than to recommend investors buy equities here.... (Unless of course he's talking his book and surely no one in such a high position would ever do that on world wide television.... would they?)
    May 14 08:14 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Expiration Week Begins [View article]
    No worries totalcash, apologies for my tone, I defo woke up on the wrong side of bed this morning, been a bit grumpy all day :s....... One thing that did brighten my day was going long AAPL in the mid 20's, risky but happy to build a position from these levels, the 420 gap fill area appears to be holding. I have to agree with phil, this stock has been oversold in respect to its fundamentals and this downward trajectory is more stupid than the upward trajectory that had developed this time last year.... Funnily enough if this current bearish trend persists AAPL will be worth $0 around late November this year!!! (If I'm in too early I'm happy to own them lower down)
    Mar 11 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Expiration Week Begins [View article]
    totalcash, do me a favour and try not piss phil off as he just mite stop posting his articles here. You may not appreciate the article but i really enjoy reading his stuff, he provides a great view on many things that I may have missed. Do I agree with every single thing he says? No, of course not, and that is the nature of the market, for every buyer there's a seller...... and as far as spell checking the guy? well come on mate, that's just sad, an intelligent person like you knows full well what he's trying to articulate.... just my 2 cents (pence) worth
    Mar 11 12:07 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury sells $13B in reopened 30-year bonds at 3.07% - the first time since May that the auction's yields have topped 3%. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77, vs. a recent average of 2.61; indirect bidders take 37.8%. Direct bidders take 16.7%. [View news story]
    MACH, at the very least your second point is irrelevant if we're talking about US treasuries (which is what the original comment you are criticizing was doing)

    "Second, rising rates is actually a sign of increasing INflation expectations, not deflation."

    with regard to treasuries, these have been artificially inflated (yields suppressed) by the FED. So bond buyers haven't necessarily been buying due to low inflation expectations its more that the FED have put a bid under the market. If the FED removed its bond stimulus now then rates will rise due to all the longs who bought just to get on the FED bandwagon rather than because they believed that inflation was rampant (or will be). Yields will rise because demand will drop, investors will sell bonds to lock in gains. The FED will not necessarily remove stimulus when they fear inflation. They could remove it just because it is not working. A rate rise now ,sue to falling bond prices, would choke the economy and deflation will almost definitely ensue like it did during the 2008/2009 crash.
    Jan 11 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The economy, says Harvard's Clayton Christensen, suffers from too much "efficiency" innovation, which tends to lead to job losses, and not enough "empowering" innovation, which creates jobs. Because "efficiency" innovation provides a quicker return, one remedy is to change the tax code to encourage long-term innovation. [View news story]
    Whilst aknowledging how broken the system is, at least changing the tax code to encourage long-term innovation can be seen as a realistic step in the right direction.....
    Nov 4 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Also of interest regarding oil's big rise today is noted contrarian indicator Dennis Gartman getting bearish on Texas tea after it's fallen $12/barrel in 3 weeks. "The collapse of the Iranian rial and the possibility of regime change have the energy markets in thrall and rallies are to be sold into!" USO +2.5%[View news story]
    wyostocks, I can kind of agree with trading oil generally with a long bias as it is a favorite trade of the inflation hedge crowd but to say that "betting that the unforeseen event won't happen is a bad bet" is just silly, black swans are called black swans because they are improbable events and so betting on them is more silly than betting against them. The only way to trade in fear of a black swan is to ensure you have stops on your trades.... Also being short oil at todays open would also be ill advised as its extremely oversold but the trend since April is undeniably down and any prices over $100 in this current world economic climate is short lived IMHO.
    Oct 4 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Covering familiar territory, Ben Bernanke defends the Fed's QE∞ policy, and reiterates to an Indiana audience that a strengthening economy will not be enough to trigger higher policy rates. The Fed, he says, is shooting for a stronger employment picture. [View news story]
    To be read as "The Fed is shooting for an inflationary credit bubble to fuel a stronger employment picture"
    Oct 1 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The world needs to create 600M more jobs in the next decade in order to generate sustainable growth, warns the ILO in its annual report on global employment trends. "Job creation in the real economy must become our number one priority."  [View news story]
    Whatever it means its basically 60M jobs per month for the next ten years..... And yet some economists insist that its possible to have a 'Jobless Recovery'
    Jan 24 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up another 2.7% to $95.40/barrel, oil moves higher than it stood before the government attempt to drive prices lower just 4 sessions ago sent crude temporarily plunging. USO +3.2%, BNO +3.4%.  [View news story]
    Strong US growth?... Mmmmmm : /, this is looking like the fake pump before the post QE2 dump
    Jun 29 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For those keeping track, crude oil rises another 2.8% today to $93.18/barrel, and within sight of where it stood before governments tried to send prices lower by releasing oil stocks. For now, crude is a risk asset - if you know where equities are headed, oil is likely going that direction too.  [View news story]
    If the FED doesn't embark on QE3 then Oil has nowhere to go but down after the speculators are done with one last bullsh*t push upwards.
    Jun 29 05:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Birinyi's Jeff Rubin sees the S&P 500 eventually topping 2,100 at the peak of the current bull market, “but that's not this year, that's not next year. When we look at stock markets that go on for a long period of time, that start off quickly - 1974, 1982, 2009 - those markets are not ones that end quickly."  [View news story]
    I predict 1635 as both the top and the year ;) ....this is a fun game that all of us can join in on as it seems economists are happy to just make up numbers nowadays.... (clearly i'm no good at it either tho!!)
    Jun 15 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In its secular outlook, Pimco expects a period of "financial repression," where policymakers avoid addressing structural issues, and instead suppress interest rates into negative territory, stealthily easing the terms on which they must repay their massive debt.  [View news story]
    I thought we were already in this period for the last two years already?
    May 17 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The two-year bull market is one of the most powerful in U.S. history. That's not news, but Mark Hulbert explains why it matters: "To the extent this bull market continues into its third year of life, it will be venturing even further than it already has beyond what many of the historical norms would suggest we can rightfully expect."  [View news story]
    I can agree that a lot of what we do in the markets is a guess but the 'why' is important as it enables us to make an educated guess. The point on the stimulus is that if the FED decide not to go ahead with QE3 or even worse, end QE2 early, then there is a very good chance that this rally of all 'hard' assets will end abruptly as the markets are on stimulus life support (IMHO). Turn that life support off and... well you get the picture. So as an educated guess I would say the markets will have a hard time climbing strongly from here unless the Bernank signals an intent to continue stimulus past QE2.
    Mar 9 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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