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  • Why American Airlines Needs $5 Billion In Buybacks This Year  [View article]
    Why on earth would you think that a guy with 4 bankruptcies in his background has a clue about what will happen in the future?!
    Feb 12, 2016. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sun Edison: Read Through From Solar City Earnings Release Conference Call  [View article]
    Makes me think that Blackstone was helping SUNE's stock price climb while setting them up for a fall. But SUNE fell a little too quickly for them, before they could actually finalize the deals. Indeed, the way VSLR's revenue growth fell so sharply after the deal was agreed to and from the way some posters here were complaining that VSLR would go bankrupt w/o the deal happening because VSLR didn't capitalize their business the way they allegedly would have if the deal hadn't been made, makes me believe that the whole thing was a setup.

    Although obviously I can't prove anything. It is the speculation of both of us now. Whoever is on the board better get rid of Chatila and his team.
    Feb 12, 2016. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sun Edison: Read Through From Solar City Earnings Release Conference Call  [View article]
    Thanks for the back story.

    It sounds like Blackstone was busy taking SunEdison to the cleaners with several deals while SUNE had cash growing on trees via their rising stock price, and then SUNE couldn't afford the deals when their stock price went south before they could raise any new cash through an equity sale.

    Does that sound like a fairly accurate albeit brief reading of the situation? I don't know anything about the LAP property, but the VSLR deal certainly looks like a Blackstone fleecing to me, even before the way their revenues suddenly dipped. Sounds like Chatila had too much money for his good, and Blackstone was only too happy to try to relieve him of it.
    Feb 12, 2016. 01:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's profit sharing day for Delta employees  [View news story]
    I didn't get into the nitty gritty details of the contract, but how can a 20% raise be less than the current contract?
    Feb 12, 2016. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's profit sharing day for Delta employees  [View news story]
    That is certainly true. But it is also true that UAL's merger with Continental was a disaster and AAL's merger with US Air was only consummated a couple of years ago, with the reservation systems only merged a few months ago, while DAL's and LUV's biggest mergers were long ago. No doubt that they both did much better than UAL and they deserve for the moment higher valuations than AAL and UAL. But I would argue that AAL's valuation is way low given how they've done on the merger so far, and that they plausibly have much greater appreciation ahead of them than either DAL or LUV for that reason.

    But of course that is speculative--they still must deliver the goods over the next year or two. We'll see.
    Feb 12, 2016. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sun Edison: Read Through From Solar City Earnings Release Conference Call  [View article]
    Apologies for having to ask, but -- what do LAP and Blackstone have to do with each other?
    Feb 12, 2016. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's profit sharing day for Delta employees  [View news story]
    Maybe it isn't a surprise, but today at least DAL and LUV are both lagging the other airlines I follow. Many of them are up more than 3% while DAL is up 0.86% and LUV is up 1.90%. AAL is up 3.6%, HA up 6.1%, VA up 2.25%, SAVE up 3.6%, JBLU up 2.90% among some of the others.
    Feb 12, 2016. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Intel: Occam's Razor  [View article]
    It means that Fidelity owns more than 5% of Micron's stock (5.346% to be exact).
    Feb 12, 2016. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group: Do Fundamentals Matter Anymore?  [View article]
    Tim, the reason downturns were especially bad for airlines--and why upturns were not as good as downturns were bad-- is that there was overcapacity in the sector. Not only way too many seats and planes, but way too many airlines. That made it very difficult to eliminate capacity when that was needed. In order to eliminate capacity in a meaningful way, companies had to either merge or go out of business. That is the process that has occurred over the past 10-15 years.

    It had nothing to do with poor "strategies" that the individual companies adopted. It had everything to do with sector structure. The companies had to adopt those strategies in an attempt to survive. The fact is, not all of them could survive. It was mathematically impossible for all of those companies to continue to sell seats profitably in a cyclical sector like the airline business. And that is why we now have four airlines that control over 80% of the domestic US capacity and why they are profitable now.

    It's the consolidation, stupid (paraphrasing Carville's famous comment from the '92 election, for those who might not get it--I'm not calling Tim "stupid").
    Feb 12, 2016. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group: Do Fundamentals Matter Anymore?  [View article]
    Yeah, we got it the first eight times you said it was headed toward 30. Why do you feel compelled to repeat this ad nauseum?

    That's a rhetorical question, you really don't need to answer.
    Feb 10, 2016. 03:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Earnings Portend Gloomy Outlook For Several Solar Companies  [View article]
    >>why do you think their multiple is so low? read their cash flow statement, focus on the "Project assets and deferred project costs" line item. nasty cash drain, very indicative of a short-term revenue sling-shot.<<
    Those are longer term projects that they are building. Those projects require debt and are drains on cash until they are sold or until they are operating, when they will throw off cash with the development expenses behind them and being depreciated. That is what CAFD exists for for FSLR (and why TERP and GLBL exist for SUNE).
    Feb 10, 2016. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group: Do Fundamentals Matter Anymore?  [View article]
    Thanks for your interesting post. I think a lot of the issues that you point to have to do with their exposure to S. America, especially Brazil and Venezuela (heavier than other legacy airlines, relatively speaking) and their merger expenses. Both of these should be less of a drag over the next year. But their exposure to S. America will continue to be a drag on revenue growth as long as S.A. economic conditions remain so sluggish.

    You are right to point to the revenue issue, but that can't be helped, as it is at least in good part due to a double edged sword (in addition to the S.A. issue). Lower fuel prices lowers their costs considerably, but they also will inevitably lower ticket prices. The decline in ticket prices has been more gradual than the fuel price decline, but my current guess about why PEs are so low on airlines is that Mr. Market just doesn't know how much of the fuel costs will eventually be given back to customers and employees, and how much will investors have access to in the future. That is an issue for all of the airlines.

    What we should watch for is, now that the reservations systems are integrated and the costs associated with that presumably over, will we finally see synergies from the USAir-AMR merger be realized? I have read estimates of anywhere between $300m and a billion dollars of possible savings. Where are they? They were pretty quick to sign contracts with their major unions--did they give them too much? Parker keeps saying that he isn't in favor profit sharing agreements with the unions, giving them a higher salary instead, but it seems to me that lower salaries and profit sharing is a better idea, as that will lower costs in bad times and increase them in good times, as well as giving employees a greater stake in ensuring the success of the airline.
    Feb 10, 2016. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Intel: Occam's Razor  [View article]
    Micron will be webcasting the Investor Meeting on Friday. It can be accessed here:

    Micron's 2016 Winter Analyst Conference

    Feb 12, 2016
    8:00 AM MT

    Location: The Phoenician - Scottsdale, AZ
    Listen to webcast

    It is at least plausible that S.A. will provide a transcript as well. I hope so. These meetings are usually about 2-3 hours long, occasionally a little longer.
    Feb 9, 2016. 09:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Airlines Needs $5 Billion In Buybacks This Year  [View article]
    Well, LUV is giving AAL a run for its money. Here are the 52 week highs for a few airlines and today's closing price:
    LUV: 51.34--> 34.72 at the close today
    AAL: 56 --> 35.55
    ALK: 87.17 --> 63.06
    HA: 40.13 --> 31.89
    VA: 39.20 --> 27.90
    SAVE: 83.45 --> 40.38

    They've all taken a beating, especially since the beginning of the year. I think maybe recession fears are part of it? Also, plausibly ALGO has jumped on the bear bandwagon.

    And of course the bears will repeat ad nauseum, "Hey, this is as good as it gets! Fuel prices have to go up from here!" I would reply, "Yeah, but even if they do, the airlines will still make good money as long as there isn't a deep recession."

    My voice obviously doesn't carry much weight, lol....
    Feb 8, 2016. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The DRAM Process Node Roadmap  [View article]
    Samsung Shelves Expansion of Semiconductor Plant in China -


    Samsung Electronics has virtually shelved its second phase investment in its semiconductor plant in Xi’an, China. It seems that the Korean electronics giant is concerned about a sharp rise in supply due to the expansion of NAND flash plants by Toshiba, SanDisk and Intel with the memory semiconductor market forecast to have the worst market situation in seven years this year.

    According to the semiconductor industry on Feb. 3, Samsung Electronics postponed the second phase investment in the Xian plant to some time in 2016 or beyond. Samsung Electronics currently uses about one fifth of the whole area (about 1.1 million square meters) of the Xi’an plant, which has already reached its maximum production capacity with its current equipment. This situation compelled industrial experts to predict that the company will execute its second phase investment in the remaining site within this year.

    more at the link
    Feb 8, 2016. 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment