pkamp

A Modest Proposal For the Future of Ethanol: Cellulosic Beef

I appreciate Tom's thoughtful and well researched article. There is a wild card here and it is corn yield developments. Tom suggests that if all the 2006 crop were used for ethanol it would be enough for 20 billion gallons of fuel ethanol. This would be about 14% of our total transportation fuel needs in the US.

In just one year, the 2007 anticipated crop (about 13 billion bushels) would be enough for over 35 billion gallons of fuel ethanol. Many in the ag community feel that with implementation of other seed varieties and crop technology, 20 billion bushels is not unreasonable. Without taking one kernel from established, stable markets for corn use (feed, food, industrial, and export), and without increasing total planted acres, fertilizer use or soil erosion runoff, producing 35% of our fuel needs from corn in just a couple years is not unreasonable. Numerous technology developments by ICM, Poet/Broin, and my company Delta-T are being proven and implemented which further reduce the water and energy requirements for corn ethanol plants, and lower operating costs. This points to the need for more corn to ethanol capacity, not less.

Put another way, this would displace the oil imports we currently receive from Saudi, Arabia, Iraq, and Venezuela. It points to a more energy independent United States.
Commodities are about logistics and with the tremendous increase in the demand for fuels in other parts of the world, it may not make sense for them to export to the U.S. in the future anyway.
Corn and corn to ethanol infrastructure is already in place and there are very positive outcomes in terms of the environment, tailpipe emissions and air quality, and economic development of domestic industries and agriculture. Not only does ethanol create direct jobs at plants, but for a huge number of people employed in materials, fabrication, construction, and agriculture.
I wholeheartedly agree with development of low cost cellulose to ethanol processes and plants. But this should not be looked at as something that will displace the corn to ethanol industry, rather to supplement it. Corn to ethanol is simply going to be way ahead of cellulose to ethanol for a long time, not just in terms of the technology, but also in feedstock infrastructure and logistics and agricultural methods, and in acceptance and non-disruption of existing animal feed methods and equipment.
The heavy lifting is in the hands of the pro-ethanol and renewable legislators. We talk about the E10 wall as blocking the ongoing development of ethanol production capacity and blending. Development of voluntary blending markets for ethanol (E20, E30, E50, E85 etc) and their acceptance by US Automakers, and breaking down the barriers that have been put in the way of convenience store operators and fuel retailers by the oil companies (which is a reality, not a slogan) is a necessary short term route to increased renewable fuels and ongoing development. Sen John Thune from South Dakota and others are leading the efforts here in Washington, with a lot of support, but its a hard fight.

Paul Kamp
Delta-T