Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View asavi4's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • More on Apple: Berenberg's Adnaan Ahmad has downgraded shares to Sell from Buy, while also cutting his rating on Samsung (SSNLF.PK). With smartphone growth now fueled by emerging markets, "Apple and Samsung margins are peaking and growth is going to be driven by the margin-dilutive mid-to-low-end segment," he argues. Also, Citi has cut its PT to $480, citing weaker iPhone 5 and regular iPad demand. Citi, which cut Apple to Neutral in December, now expects March and June quarter iPhone sales of 34M and 25M, below a consensus of 37M and 32M. AAPL -0.2%[View news story]
    contrarian. this means C etc trading desk is now buying
    Mar 6 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bruce Berkowitz Expects To Make 4 Times His Money On His Core Holdings [View article]
    50 would imply a market cap of about 500 bln vs peak market cap in largest bubble in history of 214 bln......
    Feb 5 02:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Revisiting The Valuation Case [View article]
    Wouldn't 22 suggest a mkt cap of ~240 bln, which is about 25 bln more than its peak mkt cap in oct 2007?
    Jan 2 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paulson Is Right To Short Bunds: The Pain Will Flow To Germany [View article]
    no a babbling at all. it is the cause. The ULC for Germany fell because of the distinct advantage they gained from the Euro that tried to standardize everything and especially labor and productions costs across 27 nations that are vastly different. this is just impossible. Greek unit labour costs have risen by 50 per cent since 2001. This compares with a eurozone average of about 25-30 per cent and a German cost increase of little more than 6 per cent. In an experience shared by other eurozone periphery countries, euro membership sparked a drive to catch up with salaries and living standards in core members.
    Apr 20 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paulson Is Right To Short Bunds: The Pain Will Flow To Germany [View article]
    Explaining The European €2.5 Trillion Liquidity Catch 22 Closed Loop

    If anyone is confused about what the real issue in Europe is, the following two charts should explain it all.

    Because stripping all the recent rhetoric and bluster about this insolvent nation or that, the real explanation for Europe's troubles, and the real reason why virtually every country except for Germany, is essentially insolvent (something that has absolutely nothing to do with how much liquidity the ECB can provide, and in fact by making liquidity free to fill transitory needs, the ECB enables even more destructive behavior that does nothing to fix the cause), has to do with the flow of cash. And specifically the transfer of cash within the mercantilist union.

    The first chart below summarizes the various individual current account deficits (accumulated over the past decade) within the Eurozone, and how it is clearly in Germany's best interest to perpetuate a common currency, which prevents its legacy currency, the DEM from soaring, and thus crippling intraunion current account flows that benefit Germany. As for external trade flows: the weaker the Euro, the better so Europe can export its stuff to China and the US (hence the need for a perpetual threat of a PIIGS Implosion, which prevent the EUR from rising on endless concerns foa default).

    Now this plan worked for many years, until about 5 years, the debt capacity of the Periphery started getting filled, and instead, via the Eurosystem Banks hub and spoke system, of which the ECB is at the hub, those countries with current accounts had to start funding indirectly, via TARGET2, the capital deficiency of the big CA deficit countries. The second chart below shows just how far this divergence has gotten.

    he problem, as we noted last year, is that the system may have crossed a threshold where Germany's explicit funding of the CA deficit transgressors is now far too large for it to be sustainable (as Jens Weidmann has now confirmed).

    Alternatively, should the status quo continue, and it very well may with just bailout after bailout in store - in other words the same defection-encouraging game theory stance - the only way it can work is if Germany continues to recycle the CA surplus right back into the European periphery. There is, however, no ceiling to this activity, and in several years, the German TARGET2 "receivable" will be in the trillions, or well greater than its entire GDP.

    And that, in a nutshell, is what is happening in Europe.

    Everything else is merely noise masking the expansion of the relationship whereby Germany pretends its increasing losses, in the form of recycled sunk Current Account "costs" as a victory.
    Apr 19 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paulson Is Right To Short Bunds: The Pain Will Flow To Germany [View article]
    Explaining The European €2.5 Trillion Liquidity Catch 22 Closed Loop
    Apr 19 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The power of the iPhone (AAPL): After learning of AT&T's (T) big drop in customers taking out long-term contracts after losing iPhone exclusivity, new iPhone provider Verizon (VZ -2.6%) says it added 906,000 contract-based wireless subscribers in Q1, more than double Y/Y. In total, Verizon activated 2.2M iPhones - but Wall Street had expected more.  [View news story]
    i think everyone is waiting for iphone 5 to come to vz
    Apr 21 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iShares Japan ETF in Focus [View article]
    @ahelfert - ewj was flat yesterday
    Mar 16 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Best Buy May Be a Great Value Play [View article]
    is there a good research report and/or website that compares prices for amzn and bby
    Mar 10 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment