jeff the genius'  Instablog

With major global economic concerns, the center of attention is falling back on the US Dollar. After all, the US economy is still by far the healthiest in the world and by far the most resilient. We are fed a multitude of economic data practically every week, and what does Wall Street do? Digestion and regurgitation is the norm with a panic stricken frenzy of selling. Great, let's not focus on the media, global events, nor panic induced crises. Let us look at US.  The good old United States. I don't care about what others say. Last time I listened to someone else, it cost me a fortune. Analyzing key industries that are vital to sustain global economic growth and recovery is the only way to seize the opportunities that have surfaced with this huge market correction. Ask yourself, what will still be around regardless of what happens? What are the industries that we simply cannot function without. And which sectors will bounce back because of the tremendous drop in oil, which I predicted months ago?What are the SUPER deals out there? Which industries will be maximizing profits, due to the interwoven world economy and population growth, which joins the nations of the international economic arena due to the unprecedented levels of financial interdependence?Trade;  MNCs and their dependence on transporting their goods (cargo) world wide along with an incredible demand for international and domestic air travel, will play a large role in the success of the Airline Industry! Profitability, due to drop in oil prices, will play a major part in the "Rise of the Airline Carrier Companies."Short supply in seating capacities and cargo space coupled with the new levels of demand for air transportation will be the key to the Sector's resurgence. I will not go into detail on the specific plays, however, I will mention a couple of stocks to watch over the next 3 months. Those are: AMR, DAL, UAL.Oh, and remember the strengthening Greenback (UUP), and oil tailspin. I originally gave out a $70/barrel target, and now I am dropping it to $45/barrel by year end. Stay away from metals. Panic buying will fizzle while tech, biotech, transportation and food commodities will dominate our market "New Global Economic With major global economic concerns, the center of attention is falling back on the US Dollar. After all, the US economy is still by far the healthiest in the world and by far the most resilient. We are fed a multitude of economic data practically every week, and what does Wall Street do? Digestion and regurgitation is the norm with a panic stricken frenzy of selling. Great, let's not focus on the media, global events, nor panic induced crises. Let us look at US.  The good old United States. I don't care about what others say. Last time I listened to someone else, it cost me a fortune. Analyzing key industries that are vital to sustain global economic growth and recovery is the only way to seize the opportunities that have surfaced with this huge market correction. Ask yourself, what will still be around regardless of what happens? What are the industries that we simply cannot function without. And which sectors will bounce back because of the tremendous drop in oil, which I predicted months ago?What are the SUPER deals out there? Which industries will be maximizing profits, due to the interwoven world economy and population growth, which joins the nations of the international economic arena due to the unprecedented levels of financial interdependence?Trade;  MNCs and their dependence on transporting their goods (cargo) world wide along with an incredible demand for international and domestic air travel, will play a large role in the success of the Airline Industry! Profitability, due to drop in oil prices, will play a major part in the "Rise of the Airlines Carrier Companies."Short supply in seating capacities and cargo space coupled with the new levels of demand for air transportation will be the key to the Sector's resurgence. I will not go into detail on the specific plays, however, I will mention a couple of stocks to watch over the next 3 months. Those are: AMR, DAL, UAL.Oh, and remember the Greenback (UUP), and oil tailspin. I originally gave out a $70/barrel target, and now I am dropping it to $45/barrel by year end. Stay away from metals. Panic buying will fizzle while tech, biotech, transportation and food commodities will dominate as the out performers of our "New Global Economic Order."Jeff Life

Without getting too much into the financial mess that we are still in, I want to warn all that we may be heading for a financial meltdown. Don't be fooled by the profits and the books. The mortgage crisis is far deeper that we think. And most of the loans on the books are bad loans that have been "swept under the carpet," hoping that one day they will just disappear.

Well reality will be hitting us shortly, the question is how long will these inexistent assets and % revenue going to be exposed and who will fall first. Who scare me the most are Bank of America and Citibank. 

Are we actually on the brink of a banking disaster? I think the question to ask is how long will the banks be able to keep delaying foreclosures and keeping huge losses off their books. You see, it's actually a 3-1 hit on paper when a bank actually takes a mortgage off their books. Most mortgages post the principal balance, all that interest (usually a bit less than the original loan amount) over the 30 years. Now, of you post a loss, not only does the original principal balance get wiped off the books, so does the interest and then come the brackets in the sum of the original dispersed amount. Add all the other costs such as forced placed insurance, several year's worth of property taxes, legal fees, and let's not forget to mention how much it costs the bank to sell the home which has lost 200% or more in value. Let's think, hmmmm, how much money are we really talking about that's out there floating around or just fell into a black hole. Let's refer to this amount in an astronomical term (no pun intended), the bank's dark matter. Between all of the banks out there there's a whole bunch of dark matter. In fact, the books are so off the true potential gross revenue off at the least 100% and the net around 300%. Those numbers are hard to believe but in my opinion not too far from the truth. To start exposing all the real numbers to the shareholders right now would create tremendous panic and a banking armageddon. By the way, there may be a cure and that would mean a bunch of mergers or nationalization of the banking sector. Whatever the real story is, we will soon find out. The sSenate Banking Committee is getting very anxious right now. It's just that the biggest loans are the ones that are being hidden. Chase is probably one of the healthier banks, but Bank of America and their recent completion of the BAC Home Loan takeover, awarded them with all those lovely Countrywide loans. Wells Fargo another one in the cauldron. And Citigroup....."fogettabatit!" Baked are the banks. So look out, that will affect the markets globally. God Bless America!!Jeff the Genius