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wpeary

wpeary
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  • Angela Merkel Correct Even Though Banking Collapse Coming [View article]
    James Wood - If a limb has gangrene just let it fester until it rots your whole body away and you die. That's what you're saying. Let the Eurozone collapse. Let the banking system collapse. Let the world go into a global depression. Then Germany can pick through the rubble and buy cheap assets after its economy has collapsed. Or maybe, we can try to keep the worst case scenario from happening. Maybe with a tighter fiscal union, the ECB can start acting like a real central bank like the Federal Reserve does and hold a line in the sand on bond yields so that Italy and Spain have functioning economies. The irony of it is, the U.S. debt situation is probably worse that Italy and Spain's, yet we pay 2% note yields.
    Dec 11 12:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Hits Record High But Risk Premium Factor Model Shows Market Still Undervalued [View article]
    Where do you get your earnings data? The latest 'as reported' earnings for the S&P500 as of January 2013 that I saw was just over $88. You state $98 for trailing earnings. That's a huge difference and it makes the market look cheap. 'As reported' earnings show the trailing P/E at over 17 -- not so cheap. Thank you.
    Mar 8 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Common Sense And Logic To Forecast 2013 - Part 2 [View article]
    Excellent, in-depth understanding of the way the money system works. Not going to have hyperinflation when our government doesn't print currency to spend, only debt securities. People comparing us to places with hyperinflation don't understand this. Most money from Fed purchases stays in excess reserves as you say. Doesn't get into the economy much. Just look at velocity as you say. How much gets "injected" into the market to drive it up endlessly? No one seems to have a good answer. Do you have any idea?
    Market certainly rallying on flimsy fundamentals. Economy is in a stagnant growth environment. Not sure we'll hit a big bear this year, but it's certainly coming. I do believe a big correction is way overdue, and not a piddling 5-10%, but more like 20% which puts us somewhere between the 2011 and 2012 lows. Thanks for the insights.
    Jan 26 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Way For The Market's New Leaders In 2013 [View article]
    It seems the performance figures for the financial and consumer discretionary SPDR are exaggerated as they are both up about 45% from their October 2011 bottoms according to good chart sources. Funny, at the time, I heard no one recommending anything that did good in the future, nor did I at the 2009 bottom. Now what to do is the question? I suspect whatever returns are left to be had, will not equal what we've seen earlier in the bull market.
    Jan 12 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For 2013 And Beyond: Exploring The Endgame For Financial Markets [View article]
    How are assets purchased by the Fed from primary dealers then "injected" into the financial markets? First it goes into credits in their Federal Reserve accounts. Bank's excess reserves have grown massively from this. I've never seen anyone be able to trace how this money then gets into the financial markets. Perhaps, some of it does. Perhaps, the Fed induces a huge psychological influence on the financial markets. Your thoughts?
    Nov 20 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Many Headwinds, But Stocks Will Continue To Climb In 2013 [View article]
    You report analyst's earnings estimates for the S&P 500 of $105 for 2012. Standard and Poors own estimates for 2012 are $89.64 as reported by Doug Short. Why do you report such a disparity?
    Nov 4 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charts: 10 Reasons To Expect A Year-End Stock Rally (Part 2) [View article]
    You cite 14.28 as the S&P 500's P/E ratio. I just read that it's 16 based on Standard and Poor's estimates for 2012 (cited by Doug Short with the S&P 500 at ~1430) Please explain your lower P/E figure.
    Nov 4 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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