Contributors: Scott Tzu, Parke Shall, Thom Lachenmann
(contributors write under pen names for anonymity purposes)
Please read Seeking Alpha's Policy on Anonymous Contributors to familiarize yourself with the site's terms and conditions relating to anonymous authors.
I have a degree in Math and Science from the University of Toronto, as well as a degree in education, also from U of T.
I have traded private equity for 38 years and have developed a proprietary Price Modelling System which has provided me with consistent profitable trading success.
In partnership with my computer scientist son, Aidan Gomez, we have automated this model using neural networks, and offer a Trade Alert service that lets subscribers replicate the trades we are involved in.
Taylor Dart is a top contributor on Seeking Alpha in both the Long Ideas and Precious Metals section of the website. He has over 7 years of experience in active investing with a compound annual growth rate the past 4 years of 21 percent. His main focus is on undervalued growth stocks outperforming the market and their peers. In addition he use extensive technical analysis to capture maximum upside price action, as his belief is that timing is everything. Taylor scans upwards of 1200 stocks nightly on the U.S. and Canadian markets to identify the best fundamental opportunities with the most timely technical setups. He is a huge proponent of trend following and the "Turtles" who enjoyed compound annual growth rates of over 80 percent per year.
"If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try and fade that price move. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.” - Paul Tudor Jones
"While a fundamental analyst may be able to properly evaluate the economics underlying a stock, I do not believe they can predict how the masses will process this same information. Ultimately, it is the dollar-weighted collective opinion of all market participants that determines whether a stock goes up or down. This consensus is revealed by analyzing price."
Mark Abraham , Quantitative Capital Management, L.P.
"Profit targets imply a trader can predict the future. Profit targets are profit-limiting. Trend followers stay in the moment of now, avoid prognostication, and let markets run as far as they go. "
Thomas Vician, Jr.
"We can’t always take advantage of a particular period. But in an uncertain world, perhaps the investment philosophy that makes the most sense, if you study the implications carefully, is trend following. Trend following consists of buying high and selling low. For 19 years we have consistently bought high and sold low. If trends were not the underlying nature of markets, our type of trading would have very quickly put us out of business. It wouldn’t take 19 years or even 19 months of buying high and selling low ALL of the time to bankrupt you. But trends are an integral, underlying reality in life. How can someone buy high and sell low and be successful for two decades unless the underlying nature of markets is to trend? On the other hand, I’ve seen year-after-year, brilliant men buying low and selling high for a while successfully and then going broke because they thought they understood why a certain investment instrument had to perform in accordance with their personal logic. "
John W. Henry
While most economists focus on short-term trends, policy changes, technical indicators, elections – things that are volatile and unstable– Harry Dent and the Dent Research team focus on long-term trends.
Demographic trends, business, market and economic cycles; human behavior patterns; and purchasing power are all things that have demonstrated themselves over hundreds (even thousands) of years to be consistent, predictable and measurable.
We study the past to predict the future - an approach that enables us to forecast years into the future with an incredible degree of accuracy. With Economy & Markets, you’ll know what’s coming next… where the immediate opportunities are… and where to park your money for the longer term.
As an Economy & Markets subscriber, you'll learn when it’s time to start profiting from the rise of specific emerging market economies, and exactly what industries and investments will hand you the fastest profits... You’ll learn when commodities are likely to peak again, when the housing market will turn up again, when markets and bonds would be a better investment than stock allocations, and more!
Tim has been involved with the financial industry for over 30 years. He is a CMT (Chartered Market Technician) and member of the MTA (Market Technicians Association). In 1986-1988, he was a market maker (floor trader) at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE), where he traded through the ’87 stock market crash. He has been involved in both private equity as well as public market and is well versed in commodities, stocks, futures, options and bonds.
Avi Gilburt is a lawyer and accountant by training. He formerly was a partner and National Director at a national firm.
Mr. Gilburt is also the Managing Member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC, which provides:
- Financial market analysis to the public through ElliottWaveTrader.net;
- Elliott Wave market analysis to institutional clients;
- Specific stock analysis to retail clients; and
- Webinars and personal coaching on Elliott Wave analysis.
He is also the Managing Member of the of the consulting firm of Gilburt & Associates, LLC, which specializes in transaction structuring and tax services.
After more than 4 decades in the financial markets, Robert P. Balan has retired. Education in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training in economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994). He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today’s new UBS) as head of technical research and as proprietary trader in various major finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently head of proprietary trading in Toronto, respectively) from late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research (in London and New York) followed in late 1990s to early 2000s. Robert did technical analysis for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the mid-200s based in New York. He returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX and commodity market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich. He joined Diapason Commodities Management in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently as Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers, and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which was hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as “the best book ever written on the subject”. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), USA.
A lifelong student of the markets, speculator, and investor, decades of experience have forged Adam into a hardcore contrarian. He believes in buying low when others are afraid, then later selling high when others are brave. He founded the financial-market research company Zeal LLC, and continues to write acclaimed weekly and monthly subscription newsletters.
Mr. Berger is the creator and developer of the YDP screening tool, a chart system and its analysis for screening and monitoring dividend income equity investments. The recipient of Seeking Alpha's Outstanding Performance Award, he also has been Seeking Alpha's #3 ranked Author for Income Investing Strategy & #4 for Utilities.
20 years of sitting in the board room gives me unique insights into Oil & Gas investments and corporate deal making in general. Additionally, he offers a Premium Research subscription service for boosting income while reducing market risk using covered option writing on a dividend income equity portfolio.
Residing in Brazil gives me a local's inside view on the pulse of its economy, politics, investment climate and breaking news. A view of my front yard is available here.
A former Chief Operating Officer, Director, Vice President and General Manger of Oil and Gas for Southern Pacific's Oil and Gas Operations, Business owner, geologist, and cribbage player, I've been an investor for over 48 years (started young at 13) and learned my lessons the way that makes them stick, by hard knocks and both big and little mistakes. Hopefully I can share some of those lessons with others.
I am an American expatriate that decided to retire at age 57 in 2009 and now live in Brazil. As an early retiree I invest for income and manage portfolio risk by screening for strong and reliable historic data along with favorable fundamental and technical current trends.
I spend 6 months/year living at home in Brazil and 6 months/year traveling the world. I have structured my financial positions so that I live virtually tax free with much of my income exempt from US tax since I live ex patriot and a lot of my US derived income over the annual ex-patriate exemptions is held in my tax free ROTH and tax deferred IRA/SIMPLE plans. This enables my tax savings to pay for my 6 months of annual traveling :) .
My investing is for income and appreciation with a balance of low to moderate short term risk and low long term risk. To accomplish this I use quality dividend payors with a long track record of steady or increasing dividends along with slowly appreciating equity prices. I target a 6 to 9 % yield and almost exclusively require a minimum history of 5 years of steady/increasing dividends and no decreases in dividend ever or at least past 10 years. I diversify through sector, country and currency unit the stocks are traded in, and security type (equity, royalty trust, REIT, mlp, etf, and ADRs).
I use covered call writing to enhance my portfolio yield with no added risk. In fact, it lowers the risk substantially. Once I identify a stock I want to own and an entry price for it, I write cash covered puts at or below that entry price (with a minimum of 1%/month time premium. Thus i obtain at least a 12% annualized yield before compounding just from the option premium.
Likewise, I use the sale of cash covered puts to generate income and and generally get an entry point at 5 to 10% below my acceptable entry level price if/when the put stock does get presented. Thus my strategy provides a 12% pre compound yield on cash and entry into stock purchases at a 5 to 10% discount from "retail".
Because I only select stocks that I am willing to hold long term for their reliable dividend yields of > 6%, I am not concerned much with market volatility or short/midterm risk. Indeed, market volatility is my friend since it increases the premiums paid on the options I sell. I also selectively sell covered calls on positions I hold long so as to add to my yield that way while not taking on any additional risk.
This strategy has kept me happily living off my portfolio income and traveling 1/2 the year while my portfolio has been slowly increasing in value even after my harvesting income for living expenses. Of course my income will incrementally increase when social security kicks in for me in a few more years and I may then slightly mofidy my goals and strategies.
Readers can get an e-mail once a day from Seeking Alpha that lists all newly published articles of ALL the authors they follow in a single e-mail. To get these updates:
- a - Click "Alerts" along the top menu tab (just left of the green PRO tab)
- b - Scroll all the way down, and check the box for "author alerts" (2nd box from the bottom)
- c - Then you'll be notified by Seeking Alpha once per day of new articles by all authors you follow (in a single e-mail)
Williams Market Analytics, LLC is a quantitative research boutique offering insightful, actionable analysis of financial markets. The firm also runs a systematic allocation strategy using quantitative models. The strategy portfolio can be accessed by both individual investors as well as RIAs in the U.S. and Europe. The strategy description and 5-year performance record can be found at: http://www.williamsmarketanalytics.com/fund/
Market Trend Signal™ is the leader in Trend Following, Market Timing and Stock Ratings.
Market Trend Signal clients receive access to stock ratings on over 15000 stocks as well as market timing trend following signals on all major markets and sectors.
Market Trend Signal™ provides users with an easy to use market timing system to determine whether the stock market is providing favorable or unfavorable trading conditions.
Our investment analysis and stock ratings are based solely on price. This method is a trend following method. Our proprietary market timing signals and stock ratings find strong stocks in rising industries again and again, and will ALWAYS identify best of breed stocks using our StrengthRank setting. We place a very simple BUY, SELL or HOLD stock rating with a short term trend following signal for early indication of a shifting entry or exit signal.
It is our objective to provide every individual with a Market Timing System and trend following system, to allow success in investing and trading.
In an ever changing economic environment investors need a serious, disciplined approach to trading, trend following, market timing
I typically write about oil exporting countries, as well as other oil related topics. I also ocassionally analyze stocks and other commodities.
My oil analysis is supported by tanker tracking data. As I know, THIS INFORMATION IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR FREE ANYWHERE ELSE. Insipired by #OOTT, I developed my own algorithm to identify how much oil is floating from one port to another. Using weekly updated model enables me to identify changes in oil flows ahead of official data sources. By mining this data, I am currently capable to produce following reports:
- Exporting country breakdown by sources of export (pie chart)
- Oil output to date (cumulative line chart)
I constantly improve the model and will soon start writing importing countries, including USA. I am interested to know how to make my writing better; so feel free to let me know what other data/reports you would like to see.
Ever feel like trading is like rolling dice? In a way, it is, because every mathematical model of the market includes a stochastic aspect. But I believe we can load the dice in our favor through the use of statistics. Understanding both the stock market and each individual stock as a sort of random process with its own characteristics allows us to more accurately predict what it will do in the future. Coupling statistics with fundamental analysis, I have the goal of revealing to you the hidden patterns within stocks so that you may do what you wish with that information.
Everyone deserves to invest their money in the safest, most flexible way possible, without paying huge fees or sacrificing meaningful returns. Hedgewise strives to become the first wealth manager to take the best ideas from hedge funds and institutions and make them available to anyone, while keeping fees low and capital requirements to a minimum. There have been tremendous innovations in finance over the past decade which have only benefited a select few, and I believe it is time for that to change.
Hedgewise is owned and run by Mr. Lee Tobey, who previously worked at one of the largest hedge funds in the world and has all of his own wealth invested in Hedgewise products.
Named by Fortune as one of its "50 Great Investors". Acknowledged as Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) expert by WSJ, Fortune, Forbes.com and Smartmoney.com after developing a CFFO algorithm that predicts bankruptcies for seemingly healthy large NYSE and NASDAQ traded companies. Markowski also has CFFO algorithms that identify severely undervalued companies.
In September 2007 Equities Magazine column predicted the 2008 collapses for all five of the U.S. major brokers including Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. Wholesale sell recommendations for the five based on macro-analysis of brokerage industry's negative cash flow due to "sub-prime mortgage revenue".
Founded: TrophyInvesting.com (2016), Dynastywealth.com (2014), Onlinefinancialsector.com (2007), StockDiagnostics.com (2002).
Currently: Analyst for Dynasty Wealth (focused on finding and covering disruptor companies that have 100X to 1,000X potential within 5 years).
Passion is recommending shorts for hyped companies that have inherently flawed negative CFFO models and ten baggers for those which are extremely undervalued based on their CFFO. Does not trade the markets and is instead a buy and holder.
Began career with Merrill Lynch in 1977 and was employed in early years by Oppenheimer and Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette. Became CEO of a firm in 1990 that subsequently went out of business due to the firm’s having a net capital deficiency on January 15, 1991, the day before the first Gulf War broke out.
Markowski voluntarily left the broker industry in 1991. Most of his activities since have been in the financial information industry. The SEC and the NASD subsequently barred Markowski in 1995 from associating with a broker dealer. The bar related to activities that occurred in 1990, and before the war's breaking out which caused a severe lack of liquidity for the markets resulting in the firm's going out of business. Markowski appealed his bar to the U.S. Supreme Court which denied to hear his appeal. Markowski was not barred from being a registered investment advisor (RIA). However, Markowski chose not to pursuit a career as a RIA.
I've developed personal investing strategies for individual stocks and Asset Allocation:
1) Stocks - Fundamental value investor using Free Cash Flow as defined by Buffett's 1987 shareholder letter. Invest in predictable, undervalued stocks with good management. Buy with a Margin of Safety, Sell at Intrinsic Value. Hold cash when nothing is available at my price. Use the Kelly Formula to determine optimum fraction to invest in each stock which maximizes the amount of money you win over a lifetime of investing.
2) Asset Allocation (for 401-k, small IRA accounts, and available cash) - Use a 'Value-Weighted' asset allocation strategy with inputs of projected returns/historic volatility. Apply the Kelly Formula to determine optimal asset allocation. Rebalance twice a year in April and October.
Store my portfolio - and my brain - on the web at www.healthywealthywiseproject.com
Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
The author of Stockerblog worked for over 20 years in the financial services industry as a stockbroker, investment advisor, Vice President of a San Francisco money management firm, mutual fund wholesaler, and market maker on the Pacific Stock Exchange. He has written numerous articles for the Bond and Share Society Journal, Friends of Financial History Magazine, TheStreet.com and many other investment publications. He has also appeared on CNBC and Fox Business News, and is founder of WallStreetNewsNetwork.com.
Visit Stockerblog (http://stockerblog.com/) and WallStreetNewsNetwork.com (http://WallStreetNewsNetwork.com)
Philstockworld.com is the fastest growing stock and option newsletter on the Web. "High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits" is our motto and our Basic and Premium Chat Sessions offer readers a chance to speak to Phil live during the trading day as well as authors like Optrader, Sabrient, Income Trader and Trend Trader - who send out Alerts during the market sessions and discuss trade ideas live with Members.
We even have a new low-cost "Trend Watcher" Membership that lets readers view our chat sessions without directly participating a great solution for people who want to test-drive the site and profit from our experience! Trend Watchers get to view all of our Chat Archives, weekly Webinars - as well as the amazing PSW Wiki, which gives you Phil's recent opinions and trade ideas as well as technical and fundamental analysis of hundreds of stocks that we follow.
Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks).
Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)
Chief Market Strategist at www.buysellshort.net. Learn how to make a living trading small and midcap stocks
Additional Disclaimer: I may buy and sell any positions mentioned in any article at any time.
Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets?
Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities.
Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center.
His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.
Copy and paste links into your browser:
More About CCM:
CCM Home Page: