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wenlock00

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  • Seasonal Factors To Cause Stock Market Volatility [View article]
    Salmo Trutta (a QE wiz with a good handle on money flows) I think suggests a drop from 4th thru 17th April.

    So you both might be right in the end?

    http://bit.ly/11n0fpX
    Apr 3 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Seasonal Soft Patch Coming? [View article]
    Jeff, thanks for explaining that, without your insight, we would have probably never of known the real background.
    Mar 31 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Seasonal Soft Patch Coming? [View article]
    I think Doug Short was suggesting the market (S&P) is 27% overvalued - is this not a reason to be very cautious at the moment?

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 31 06:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seasonal Factors To Cause Stock Market Volatility [View article]
    Stocks might rise this week as it is the end of the Quarter?
    Mar 26 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A senior official says Cyprus has reached an agreement with the Troika to impose a 20% tax on accounts over €100K at the Bank of Cyprus and a 4% levy on similar accounts at other domestic banks. The same source told Reuters the country would not nationalize pension funds.  [View news story]
    Nicosia official says Cyprus not in reach of deal with troika, blames IMF | http://bit.ly/Y6QUSp
    Mar 23 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Planning For The Unexpected [View article]
    Good point, Copper, Commodities in decline?

    Europe probably out of favour for a week or two, meanwhile Emerging Markets continue to lag.

    upside / downside / inflation risk, or continued QE and the beat goes on?

    US recovery looking good - anything on the horizon to stop the music e.g. budget / further decline in consumer sentiment?

    My biggest 'snake in the grass' - the market went to far too fast and a potential correction still looms?
    Mar 19 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The latest draft bill in Cyprus scraps a proposed levy on deposits of under €20,000 but doesn't make up for the "lost" revenue by increasing the tax on larger accounts. A vote is due later today. Meanwhile, Gazprom has denied speculation that it offered to bail out Cyprus in return for gas-exploration rights. Trading on the Cyprus Stock Exchange has been suspended for today and tomorrow - not a surprise given the chaos that would probably have ensued. [View news story]
    Once the levy is sorted, it will be interesting to see the impact on the wider Cyprus economy and any potential implications thereof.
    Mar 19 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Too Excited About Cyprus [View article]
    Quite simply, the market looks overbought to me and needs an excuse to move nearer to fair value. The trend is up, the logic and reason for it remains suspect?

    Some sort of thump is needed - Cyprus may not be enough?
    Mar 18 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus's parliament is due to convene this afternoon to debate an astonishing eurozone demand that it tax all bank deposits at up to 10% in return for a €10B bailout. While approval is not guaranteed, Cypriots rushed to take as much money as allowed out of ATMs. And although EU Commissioner Olli Rehn ruled out a deposit raid in other eurozone countries, menacingly for savers, eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem would not. "We are in a new world," says an economist. Update: The parliamentary debate has been postponed until tomorrow. [View news story]
    But they are punishing many other people as well e.g. European retirees / expats. Perhaps they should have stuck to the 100k guarantee and punished the Russian money launderers a bit more?
    Mar 17 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus's parliament is due to convene this afternoon to debate an astonishing eurozone demand that it tax all bank deposits at up to 10% in return for a €10B bailout. While approval is not guaranteed, Cypriots rushed to take as much money as allowed out of ATMs. And although EU Commissioner Olli Rehn ruled out a deposit raid in other eurozone countries, menacingly for savers, eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem would not. "We are in a new world," says an economist. Update: The parliamentary debate has been postponed until tomorrow. [View news story]
    Individual deposits with European banks of up to #100,000 Euro are supposed to be safe and protected by a guarantee scheme. The Cyprus bailout grab will shatter peoples confidence in their European banks and create a further divide between citizens and politicians. Cyprus is small beer but the breaking of the guarantee precedent will have major implications resulting in a lack of credibility of Europe, the Euro and beyond?
    Mar 17 11:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Retail Sales+1.1% vs. +0.5% expected, +0.2% prior (revised). Ex-auto +1.0% vs +0.6% expected, +0.4% prior (revised). [View news story]
    The Resilient Consumer? Not Quite | http://on.wsj.com/Wnu08a
    Mar 13 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This 2011 All Over Again? [View article]
    Manipulation and dark forces - a sound reason to invest? - it is a matter of opinion but I think not. I need to seek out a more trustworthy asset class?
    Mar 4 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen surprises no one, calling for the central bank to press on with its asset purchases. It's the usual story - the benefits are obvious, the costs negligible, if any. QE will continue, she says, until there is substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market. [View news story]
    Interesting how mainsream markets have chugged ahead 7-10% for little reason in the last couple of months. The perception is that the market is jacked up on QE. I find it difficult to invest based on non-fundamentals - perhaps time to consider another asset class?
    Mar 4 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: The S&P extended its winning streak to eight on strong reports from P&G, Halliburton and others to close above 1500 for the first time since 2007, with the next stop the 1565 high. Not too hot, not too cold: Earnings have come in better than expected, and money seems to be moving into stocks without a stampede. Treasury prices fell on signs the eurozone is healing from its sovereign debt crisis. [View news story]
    "signs of eurozone healing from its soverign debt crisis"? Don't make me laugh.

    - unemployment up again in Spain, 10yr Bond yield +3.25% today.
    - UK wants to leave EU, unless terms renewed, triple dip.
    - Cyprus recognised as basket case money laundering operation.
    - Italy banks in crisis.
    - France and many others still contracting

    All the things announced by Draghi - never deployed e.g. OMT

    Only Germany is the exception?
    Jan 25 04:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A chart broken out by The NPD Group shows the stark difference in growth rates for the traditional coffee sector versus specialty coffee in the U.K. While traditional coffee has lost close to half of its market share of total foodservice purchases over the last four years, specialty sales have shot the other way to account for close to 12% of the group's total. It's a trend that suggests Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR -0.7%) may hold up just fine against single-serve competitors such as Kraft Foods and J.M. Smucker. [View news story]
    Drink Tea, it is better for you, the green/black tea mix is very nice.
    Jan 16 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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