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wenlock00

wenlock00
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  • John Hussman: Hovering With An Anvil [View article]
    Looks like Goldman has started to agree with you?

    http://bit.ly/19pYaAf

    Well done for standing up for your principles, and for having the courage to speak out and diligently argue your case.
    Jan 13 02:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Make Or Break Moment [View article]
    Odd how Windows PC's appear to run very slowly just before a new release? I will not be buying another one. Two people have asked me to look at their computer performance problems this week, one on Vista and another on XP, both were completely slugged.
    Aug 20 09:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus's parliament is due to convene this afternoon to debate an astonishing eurozone demand that it tax all bank deposits at up to 10% in return for a €10B bailout. While approval is not guaranteed, Cypriots rushed to take as much money as allowed out of ATMs. And although EU Commissioner Olli Rehn ruled out a deposit raid in other eurozone countries, menacingly for savers, eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem would not. "We are in a new world," says an economist. Update: The parliamentary debate has been postponed until tomorrow. [View news story]
    Individual deposits with European banks of up to #100,000 Euro are supposed to be safe and protected by a guarantee scheme. The Cyprus bailout grab will shatter peoples confidence in their European banks and create a further divide between citizens and politicians. Cyprus is small beer but the breaking of the guarantee precedent will have major implications resulting in a lack of credibility of Europe, the Euro and beyond?
    Mar 17 11:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus's parliament is due to convene this afternoon to debate an astonishing eurozone demand that it tax all bank deposits at up to 10% in return for a €10B bailout. While approval is not guaranteed, Cypriots rushed to take as much money as allowed out of ATMs. And although EU Commissioner Olli Rehn ruled out a deposit raid in other eurozone countries, menacingly for savers, eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem would not. "We are in a new world," says an economist. Update: The parliamentary debate has been postponed until tomorrow. [View news story]
    But they are punishing many other people as well e.g. European retirees / expats. Perhaps they should have stuck to the 100k guarantee and punished the Russian money launderers a bit more?
    Mar 17 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: The S&P extended its winning streak to eight on strong reports from P&G, Halliburton and others to close above 1500 for the first time since 2007, with the next stop the 1565 high. Not too hot, not too cold: Earnings have come in better than expected, and money seems to be moving into stocks without a stampede. Treasury prices fell on signs the eurozone is healing from its sovereign debt crisis. [View news story]
    "signs of eurozone healing from its soverign debt crisis"? Don't make me laugh.

    - unemployment up again in Spain, 10yr Bond yield +3.25% today.
    - UK wants to leave EU, unless terms renewed, triple dip.
    - Cyprus recognised as basket case money laundering operation.
    - Italy banks in crisis.
    - France and many others still contracting

    All the things announced by Draghi - never deployed e.g. OMT

    Only Germany is the exception?
    Jan 25 04:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing And Economy: The Road To A Slow Death Recession [View article]
    Actions are needed to get the spiral going in reverse. With automation and the application of technology, less and less people are needed. The making of the machines and technology has been outsourced to emerging markets. So have the call centres and the back office functions. We continue to make the value chain shorter and shorter. There are not many things left that have high barriers to entry that other countries can’t make by themselves - they can certainly do it a lot cheaper. Perhaps we have reached a tipping point from which a number of mature western economies might never recover. The structural changes needed in the west to compete in a globalised world will remain a difficult pill to swallow?
    May 10 06:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifty five years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, which founded what is now the European Union, the EU increasingly finds itself on the verge of disintegration. As European politicians routinely put national interest and popularity at home first and blame the EU and the the euro for most of their countries' economic troubles, many fear it's just a matter of time before the house comes tumbling down.  [View news story]
    Subsidising contraception rather than solar power might be a better option in terms of return? :-)
    Apr 14 04:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany's Dilemma And The Future Of The Eurozone: Part 2 [View article]
    What about the IMF being used as some sort of proxy? Could this let Merkel off the hook? She could still be a hero at home, and seen less as a 'Dictator' in wider Europe.
    Feb 3 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Stock Market Ramp – The Latest In A Long Litany Of Market Manipulations [View instapost]
    Will we ever get to see a 'Snowden' of the markets, explaining manipulation?
    Jul 7 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This 2011 All Over Again? [View article]
    Manipulation and dark forces - a sound reason to invest? - it is a matter of opinion but I think not. I need to seek out a more trustworthy asset class?
    Mar 4 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware: A Large Bull Rides A Tiny Elephant [View article]
    Honest talk, meanwhile the evil temple rises on spin. There is often a correction to the mean, and in terms of honest talk there is yet one to come. Churn, small deviations classed as expansion, and ignored areas of contraction (e.g. Europe). The Debt Ceiling challenge and that of sequestration still remains, yet as a discount mechanism has this been represented appropriately by the markets? - I doubt it. The worlds greatest economic challenges seem to be represented by a market based on 'just in time concern' (JIT) mechanism. If we knew six weeks before an Asteroid was to hit planet earth, will we just ignore it until a week before?
    Jan 8 02:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Compromise Seems Futile As Cliff Nears [View article]
    Thanks for sharing your very good work, I particularly enjoy the graphs and visual commentary. Nice to see the big picture and all the various dimensions.
    Nov 10 06:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Storms In Spain [View article]
    I was in Spain just yesterday. Economic activity seemed very subdued. The taxi driver said to expect trouble soon, the natives are feeling restless. He talked about the 2 Menorcan mafias and the sanctioning of unnecessary building projects to support kick-backs. I guess my thinking is that the Eurozone will be taking a big risk lending to countries like Greece and spain in that they are unlikely to get the money back. Drahgi will be explaining OMT (On My Tab) to German politicians tomorrow, perhaps that is what they (the Germans) are worried about - vast amounts of money going down a black hole? Also manipulating risk and reward in terms of rates.
    Oct 23 07:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spanish fiscal reform plans exceed the recommendations of the EU, says economy minister de Guindos. If true, the boast is an important one as it means Spain can submit to a bailout without having to go through the politically difficult route of accepting EU conditions. This would then trigger the ECB bond purchase program. Stocks rally to a session high, the S&P 500 +0.8%[View news story]
    Europes betrayal of Spain - a nice article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard today. http://bit.ly/S2WcN1

    Gives the impression that this is just the beginning of something that could end up very much in tears.
    Sep 27 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany's Dilemma And The Future Of The Eurozone: Part 2 [View article]
    Perhaps a Greek default would not be such a bad thing for them. Tourism would boom, Unemployment would drop to single digits, and leave them in a better position to compete with Turkey etc. Cultural changes take years to achieve. The Drachma route does not sound too bad. If they devalue by 25% then they will have 100% occupancy rates with cash strapped Europeans. Perhaps also a boom in the property market? 10 more years pain without any gain does not seem like a good idea. They should go for it now.
    Feb 5 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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