Canuck Investor

NYMEX: Speculators Aren't Driving Oil Market

Speculators have little to no effect on the price of oil. The price is determined by supply and demand. It's called the market mechanism. Does anyone believe the Saudis when they say the rise in price is caused by speculators and there's plenty of oil in the market?

Oilsands Quest: What's in a Name?

This is a serious but long-term play. Some investors won't have the patience to see this through to production, revenue and profitability. But in 10 years I believe this firm will likely be quite valuable.

Will Someone Please Explain Lululemon's Outrageous Valuation?

I read the prospectus but didn't invest went it listed. It's more than just another retailer. It has a cult following and tremendous growth potential. It could become the Starbucks of fitness wear with a devout following and very high penetration. But high-flying retailers trade at crazy valuations. I tend to avoid retailers because I dislike losing money but LU does have some real potential. It's unfortunate that it probably will never trade at a valuation that would entice me to buy. Yes, the business will grow but much of the growth is already priced into the stock.

The Realities of Natural Gas

Pipeline gas in the Northeast and on the West Coast will originate from the Pinedale anticline in Wyoming--tens of trillions of cubic feet of it.

On a worldwide basis, we are nowhere near the peak of natural gas production. A couple of decades ago many foreign finds of natural gas were considered a nuisance as part of a quest for oil. The problem is, much of the gas is stranded and costs billions to market. Nevertheless, LNG imports are growing and, as a natural gas investor, I'm concerned about the growth of LNG imports in North America.

Big Oil Once Again Abused by Congress

I like the article. But what congress should have been asking is why has big oil done so little frontier, high-impact exploration in the last 20 years. The oil majors are minnows in terms of their ability to affect the price of crude but if they could put some effort into finding elephant fields they might be able to have an impact. While there probably aren't too many giants left to find, the world is a big place and some areas outside of North America have potential. Big Oil's approach to adding reserves has been scan the stock tables for a takeover candidate and that becomes a zero sum game with no effect on the world oil supply.

Filling Up on Natural Gas

It's a good article in terms of explaining how demand is affecting price. But the big issue in the medium to long-term is the impact that large supply volumes of LNG imports will have on North American gas prices. Natural gas production may be in decline in North America but there's plenty of it in places like Qatar and Trinidad. Unlike Oil, the world isn't running out of Natural Gas.

Chavez's Empty Threats

While Chavez won't cut off supply to the U.S., there's currently no worldwide oil surplus to replace Venezuelan production.

Patience Paid for Shareholders in Lukoil Litigation

It's hard to believe that Lukoil has a reputation or any goodwill to salvage in the first place. Most international petroleum investors are aware of how the firm operates.

Oilsands Quest: The Rocket Has Left the Platform

There's no THAI testing going on in Saskatchewan. Petrobank was just awarded the concession. Nobody knows if the oilsands extends that far south in Saskatchewan. They can't test before they have discovered and then firmed up the resources in that area if they exist. You have to take a very long-term approach to oilsands in SK as there is very little infrastructure in place and Axe Lake is the only area where there has been significant exploration. But in the end it may be well worth the wait.

Petro-Canada Announces New Oil Sands Breakeven: $50 a Barrel

Fort Hills may make money but the main problem is the production technique. Oilsands mining projects have poor economics compared to SAGD. It may seem counterintuitive but deeper pay formations are more attractive (if they have certain characteristics). And if you look at the projects with the highest cost overruns you'll find that they're all mining projects. Stay away from oilsand mining operations.

The Ins and Outs of Share Buybacks: Sometimes Hot, Sometimes Not

It's a good article, but I take issue with the opinion that buybacks at NVR are "bad". NVR began it's buyback program in 1993 when the share price was below $10. The current price is $695. I don't know about the author but I consider those share purchases to be excellent investments.