Banking Massive Pandora Gains, Getting Aggressive With Lululemon [View article]
Lulu needs to be very selective as to where it opens new stores. Locations such as Santa Monica are not numerous. This may be a limiting factor in its growth.
PS: One time my girlfriend and I walked by the Santa Monica Lululemon store and decided to go in and take a look see. We came out with $500 less in our wallets.
Salesforce.com Has Broken The GAAP Model: Why The Stock Is Unlikely To Fall [View article]
To say that GAAP does not matter in this case is to say that dilution does not matter. Right now the market is saying it does not matter. Your article basically says the market will continue to think so. So you are making a prediction about this stock.
Setting Up An 8-Year Old To Be A Millionaire [View article]
Hi Rocco: I take exception to your idea that you can live off of 1000000 by writing covered calls and naked puts. You have not take into consideration "black swan" events. Take the example you gave of a 1000 shares of aapl. Let us back test it for a year. When apple was trading under 400, you would be writing covered calls. Since you cannot foresee the stock going to 600 in such a short time (it was under valued for so long so one cannot predict the market changing its mind so fast). As a result, the stock will be called away. To get back in the stock, one needs to write puts with higher strike. That is risky. Another example would be say a repeat of 2008. All you puts will be assigned to you and the portfolio will be substantially under 1 million.
I think you confused Tilson with David Einhorn. Einhorn got fined 11 million in GB. Einhorn is much bigger than Tilson. Tilson only manages about 200 million which is smaller than a lot of retail stock brokers. But Tilson got on CNBC a lot more than even the big boys because he is very well spoken.
I agree with JYucca that if nflx can become so dominant that content cost might decline on a proportionate basis. However, it is a very unlikely scenario. Due to the technology not being proprietory, competition will come in to prevent nflx from dominating entertainment delivery. My short thesis for nflx is that, (1) the technology is not proprietory and (2) it owns no content (only licenses that cost too much). Witney Tilson does not think these two are issues. Well, he is the one who went to Harvard.
Netflix Litigation: Ambulance Chasers Or Legitimate? [View article]
Hastings did say, "we will only take on content consts that will enable us to main our margin" (not exact words). I do not know if that statement is materially misleading. Nflx's technilogy is not proprietory and it has to rely on others to provide contents. However these 2 problems can be solved if it can grow its subscriber base to a critical mass; say 50 million. I think that is not achievable and therfore I remain short.
Is Netflix Stock Due For A Comeback? [View article]
Netflix has a competitive advantage in that it offers the convenience of streaming (with much better interface than amzn) and the rich content of dvd by mail (much better than Blockbuster). The correct strategy is to exploit this advantage. But Hasting's mind is made up, he wants to focus all his resources on streaming (to the detriment of the company). He won't change his mind. I don't think so.
Netflix: Bizarre George Costanza Moves [View article]
Based on feedbacks from former employees, nflx runs on a culture of fear. Hastings may not look like a despot but he is. The result is he surrounded himself with yes men. That is the most likely explanation for the decisions.
Hastings is a genius and has his fabulous wealth and directorship at Facebook and Microsoft to prove it.
Analysis On Buffett's IBM Investment [View article]
I am a CPA (tax specialist) but not an accounting expert. But I think accounting for stock buy back as held in treasury v. retirement of stock has the same effect on overall shareholders' equity. If the shares are retired, they are charged against equity, just the opposite of issuing stock. But in retiring stock, the number may not stand out as a negative but rather netted against capital stock, retained earnings and so on.
Looking For The Next Netflix Or RIM? Be Wary [View article]
"Had I invested just $5,000 to $10,000 buying puts"
Despite your attempts at introspection, the above indicated you still do not understand. As we understand it, you do not have a lot of trading capital. So if you deploy 5 - 10k on puts that might become zero, the chance of you maintaining your emotional balance is none. You should have bought a put for say 1000, then now you have a 10k+ profit. As in poker, scare money never wins.
You also got this ego thing going. You are always trying to be right and you want others to appreciate you for being right. That is the wrong trading mind set. A good trader can be wrong and made big money. He would ride nflx all the way up then exit when its momentum broke.
The third clue that you do not understand trading is you still do not think that paper trading is a worthless exercise.
You are like Tilson, a good analyst but a bad trader. I believe you are cut out to be an analyst and not a trader.
I do not mean to put you down, just trying to help.......honest.
$10,000 Portfolio Update: Introducing Netflix, RIM And Pandora Torture Trades [View article]
Slim Shady wrote in one of the articles that you do not have the capital to back up your belief. You did not argue with that. So I and other readers thought it was true. That is the reason nobody said anything to you when you sit there and watch nflx implode without taking any action.
Banking Massive Pandora Gains, Getting Aggressive With Lululemon [View article]
PS: One time my girlfriend and I walked by the Santa Monica Lululemon store and decided to go in and take a look see. We came out with $500 less in our wallets.
Salesforce.com Has Broken The GAAP Model: Why The Stock Is Unlikely To Fall [View article]
Setting Up An 8-Year Old To Be A Millionaire [View article]
I take exception to your idea that you can live off of 1000000 by writing covered calls and naked puts. You have not take into consideration "black swan" events.
Take the example you gave of a 1000 shares of aapl. Let us back test it for a year. When apple was trading under 400, you would be writing covered calls. Since you cannot foresee the stock going to 600 in such a short time (it was under valued for so long so one cannot predict the market changing its mind so fast). As a result, the stock will be called away. To get back in the stock, one needs to write puts with higher strike. That is risky.
Another example would be say a repeat of 2008. All you puts will be assigned to you and the portfolio will be substantially under 1 million.
Regards,
Netflix: It's All Over But The Inane Tears [View article]
Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
My short thesis for nflx is that, (1) the technology is not proprietory and (2) it owns no content (only licenses that cost too much). Witney Tilson does not think these two are issues. Well, he is the one who went to Harvard.
Netflix Litigation: Ambulance Chasers Or Legitimate? [View article]
Nflx's technilogy is not proprietory and it has to rely on others to provide contents. However these 2 problems can be solved if it can grow its subscriber base to a critical mass; say 50 million. I think that is not achievable and therfore I remain short.
10 Safe Dividend Stocks For 2012 [View article]
Is Netflix Stock Due For A Comeback? [View article]
Is Netflix Ignoring The Will Of Its Shareholders? [View article]
Bulls Sending Investors Into The Abyss That Is Netflix [View article]
It appears that the online contents have alot less editorial vigor.
Netflix: Bizarre George Costanza Moves [View article]
Hastings is a genius and has his fabulous wealth and directorship at Facebook and Microsoft to prove it.
Analysis On Buffett's IBM Investment [View article]
I invite others to comment on this.
Looking For The Next Netflix Or RIM? Be Wary [View article]
Despite your attempts at introspection, the above indicated you still do not understand. As we understand it, you do not have a lot of trading capital. So if you deploy 5 - 10k on puts that might become zero, the chance of you maintaining your emotional balance is none. You should have bought a put for say 1000, then now you have a 10k+ profit. As in poker, scare money never wins.
You also got this ego thing going. You are always trying to be right and you want others to appreciate you for being right. That is the wrong trading mind set. A good trader can be wrong and made big money. He would ride nflx all the way up then exit when its momentum broke.
The third clue that you do not understand trading is you still do not think that paper trading is a worthless exercise.
You are like Tilson, a good analyst but a bad trader. I believe you are cut out to be an analyst and not a trader.
I do not mean to put you down, just trying to help.......honest.
$10,000 Portfolio Update: Introducing Netflix, RIM And Pandora Torture Trades [View article]