SteveD64's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/88704/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/113028-friday-s-jump-sucker-s-rally?source=feed#comment-345654 345654
People that own gold are going to realize soon that it is a dead horse....it is of a different era....it will drop below $200 or maybe lower.....

And, with all due respect, you are not in the stock market at all.....the landscape is littered with people calling for the end of the US for the last 40 years at least....]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 14:59:58 -0500
People that own gold are going to realize soon that it is a dead horse....it is of a different era....it will drop below $200 or maybe lower.....

And, with all due respect, you are not in the stock market at all.....the landscape is littered with people calling for the end of the US for the last 40 years at least....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112268-why-a-revamped-housing-plan-should-be-government-s-first-priority?source=feed#comment-338057 338057
Most of the public builders will go under or go private. They are better off just JVing with a hedge fund on specific projects than trying to be a public company with all of the expense that goes with that burden.

There is no "moat" around their business. Anybody and everybody can be a builder. No barrier to entry. They will not be able to compete with the local/regional builder who can act faster and knows market better

Wouldn't it be better to offer an incentive tax credit/rebate for a purchase of an existing home within a definite time period. This coupled with a 4.5% mortgage would get a lot of "fence sitters" to act.

The homebuilder is actually contributing to the problem as they are increasing supply in an already overbuilt situation.]]> Thu, 25 Dec 2008 09:36:47 -0500
Most of the public builders will go under or go private. They are better off just JVing with a hedge fund on specific projects than trying to be a public company with all of the expense that goes with that burden.

There is no "moat" around their business. Anybody and everybody can be a builder. No barrier to entry. They will not be able to compete with the local/regional builder who can act faster and knows market better

Wouldn't it be better to offer an incentive tax credit/rebate for a purchase of an existing home within a definite time period. This coupled with a 4.5% mortgage would get a lot of "fence sitters" to act.

The homebuilder is actually contributing to the problem as they are increasing supply in an already overbuilt situation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111938-homebuilders-face-more-tough-times-in-2009?source=feed#comment-336436 336436
Their biggest danger is that they have no moat around their business....the small local/regional homebuilders will run circles around them in the future.

They simply can no longer compete in the forseeable future]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 08:24:41 -0500
Their biggest danger is that they have no moat around their business....the small local/regional homebuilders will run circles around them in the future.

They simply can no longer compete in the forseeable future]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109657-homebuilders-return-to-former-glory-may-be-wishful-thinking?source=feed#comment-324152 324152
The strength of the big public HB is his access to vast amounts of capital in order to develop large subdivisions. Do we really think there is going to be a need for that product anytime in the forseeable future?

The smart ones will go private with assistance from a hedge fund looking to partner up with them....1 or 2 may stay public...the rest will slowly go to Chapter 7...liquidation....the... really have no assets other than too many lots/land.

One of Warren Buffett's main criteria is for a business to have a large "moat" around it....the homebuilding business does not even have a drainage ditch around it.....anyone can build a home....there are litterally thousands of small HB that build 1 or 2 houses a month.

]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 17:05:41 -0500
The strength of the big public HB is his access to vast amounts of capital in order to develop large subdivisions. Do we really think there is going to be a need for that product anytime in the forseeable future?

The smart ones will go private with assistance from a hedge fund looking to partner up with them....1 or 2 may stay public...the rest will slowly go to Chapter 7...liquidation....the... really have no assets other than too many lots/land.

One of Warren Buffett's main criteria is for a business to have a large "moat" around it....the homebuilding business does not even have a drainage ditch around it.....anyone can build a home....there are litterally thousands of small HB that build 1 or 2 houses a month.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108396-no-real-estate-bubble-in-central-u-s?source=feed#comment-317393 317393
Nobody reports that prices in the bubble states have finally come back down to realistic levels so the median wage earner can afford the median priced home.

The US has an outstanding amount of ignorant people in the media.]]> Sun, 30 Nov 2008 08:30:31 -0500
Nobody reports that prices in the bubble states have finally come back down to realistic levels so the median wage earner can afford the median priced home.

The US has an outstanding amount of ignorant people in the media.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108017-lennar-s-50-jump-and-median-house-prices?source=feed#comment-316457 316457
I also predict that most, if not all, publicly traded homebuilders will eventually go private or go under....they simply will not be able to compete with the smaller builders who know the market much better and can react much quicker.

The big homebuilders advantage is/was economy of scale on cost etc etc

The demand for large subdivisons is going to be greatly reduced for many years...and city government is going to much more reluctant to allow mass construction that is not needed....



]]> Thu, 27 Nov 2008 22:21:50 -0500
I also predict that most, if not all, publicly traded homebuilders will eventually go private or go under....they simply will not be able to compete with the smaller builders who know the market much better and can react much quicker.

The big homebuilders advantage is/was economy of scale on cost etc etc

The demand for large subdivisons is going to be greatly reduced for many years...and city government is going to much more reluctant to allow mass construction that is not needed....



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107346-bail-out-capitalism-not-detroit?source=feed#comment-312351 312351
Bring in someone like Warren Buffett/Berkshire to oversee, analyze and design a business plan for the future....

Buffett brings instant credibility, knowledge and, most importantly, objectivity. No other party is objective....all have their interest at stake.

Only in Cp 11 does GM have the legal authority to reject contracts: UAW, Dealers, Suppliers, Retirement packages etc etc

This will allow time for a slow re-adjustment, normal attrition of the workforce, worker re-training, etc etc....

The total process may take 3/5 years....GM will come out a much stronger, streamlined company for the future

But you need someone like Buffett to have credibilty with the public that they are not just throwing good money after bad.]]> Sat, 22 Nov 2008 09:10:30 -0500
Bring in someone like Warren Buffett/Berkshire to oversee, analyze and design a business plan for the future....

Buffett brings instant credibility, knowledge and, most importantly, objectivity. No other party is objective....all have their interest at stake.

Only in Cp 11 does GM have the legal authority to reject contracts: UAW, Dealers, Suppliers, Retirement packages etc etc

This will allow time for a slow re-adjustment, normal attrition of the workforce, worker re-training, etc etc....

The total process may take 3/5 years....GM will come out a much stronger, streamlined company for the future

But you need someone like Buffett to have credibilty with the public that they are not just throwing good money after bad.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107302-eddie-lampert-s-troubles-it-s-not-just-sears?source=feed#comment-312341 312341
The only difference is I do take my stop loss if I am wrong....

But, then of course, I am trading with my own money, not OPM....makes a huge difference....LOL...]]> Sat, 22 Nov 2008 08:47:06 -0500
The only difference is I do take my stop loss if I am wrong....

But, then of course, I am trading with my own money, not OPM....makes a huge difference....LOL...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105529-toll-brothers-october-surprise?source=feed#comment-304594 304594
They make a lot of money being able to produce a large amount of homes and sell them at a nice price. Those large developments are so overbuilt now it will take a decade for that need again, if ever. Also, the cities are going to be very reluctant to allow such massive development and then they are left to adminster the downside of the results.

The Toll Bros., Centex, Beazer, etc cannot compete with the smaller local builder who can move quicker and is established in the local area.
Their overhead/management levels add too much to the cost.

Homebuilding is one of the few industries that a small local guy can compete with a national public company on an equal basis. Each house is unique unto itself.

I think they are better to "hookup" with a hedge fund as a private company. This provides them with a large financial partner and removes the unreliable public financing sources.

Also, always remember, homebuilders are not in the real estate business. They are in the manufacturing business. No different than Sony, Dell, or Toyota
]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:52:22 -0500
They make a lot of money being able to produce a large amount of homes and sell them at a nice price. Those large developments are so overbuilt now it will take a decade for that need again, if ever. Also, the cities are going to be very reluctant to allow such massive development and then they are left to adminster the downside of the results.

The Toll Bros., Centex, Beazer, etc cannot compete with the smaller local builder who can move quicker and is established in the local area.
Their overhead/management levels add too much to the cost.

Homebuilding is one of the few industries that a small local guy can compete with a national public company on an equal basis. Each house is unique unto itself.

I think they are better to "hookup" with a hedge fund as a private company. This provides them with a large financial partner and removes the unreliable public financing sources.

Also, always remember, homebuilders are not in the real estate business. They are in the manufacturing business. No different than Sony, Dell, or Toyota
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104996-the-housing-solution-no-one-wants-to-hear?source=feed#comment-302646 302646
All of the people assuming the loan are going to be financially savvy...they will know what they are doing, work to re-structure etc etc...

This idea of "keep people in their homes" is simply political "blue sky"...these people simply can not afford the home, not now, not in two years...better to foreclose and place house on market at market price...buyers are everywhere

Because each loan is different there is no "one size fits all"....different laws in each state...it has to be done one loan at a time...the manpower, legal expense and time slippage are expensive.....

]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 00:11:29 -0500
All of the people assuming the loan are going to be financially savvy...they will know what they are doing, work to re-structure etc etc...

This idea of "keep people in their homes" is simply political "blue sky"...these people simply can not afford the home, not now, not in two years...better to foreclose and place house on market at market price...buyers are everywhere

Because each loan is different there is no "one size fits all"....different laws in each state...it has to be done one loan at a time...the manpower, legal expense and time slippage are expensive.....

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104904-it-might-be-impossible-to-stop-the-decline-of-housing-prices?source=feed#comment-301370 301370 Sun, 09 Nov 2008 16:43:16 -0500