SteveD64

Bail Out Capitalism, Not Detroit

GM needs to go to Chapter 11 in the next few weeks...Fed money goes to guarantee warranties, sales etc etc and cash flow issues.

Bring in someone like Warren Buffett/Berkshire to oversee, analyze and design a business plan for the future....

Buffett brings instant credibility, knowledge and, most importantly, objectivity. No other party is objective....all have their interest at stake.

Only in Cp 11 does GM have the legal authority to reject contracts: UAW, Dealers, Suppliers, Retirement packages etc etc

This will allow time for a slow re-adjustment, normal attrition of the workforce, worker re-training, etc etc....

The total process may take 3/5 years....GM will come out a much stronger, streamlined company for the future

But you need someone like Buffett to have credibilty with the public that they are not just throwing good money after bad.

Homebuilders Face More Tough Times in 2009

The big public homebuilders are dinosaurs.....they are ill suited to being a public company...better off going private...

Their biggest danger is that they have no moat around their business....the small local/regional homebuilders will run circles around them in the future.

They simply can no longer compete in the forseeable future

No Real Estate Bubble in Central U.S.

But it is not exciting to breathlessly report that everybody paid their mortgage on time, LOL.

Nobody reports that prices in the bubble states have finally come back down to realistic levels so the median wage earner can afford the median priced home.

The US has an outstanding amount of ignorant people in the media.

Friday's Jump: Sucker's Rally

I think if 2008 taught us anything it is that the "professionals" don't really know any more than the average small trader.....Bill MIller being in FNM, LEH, and BSC etc etc.... is just an example of "what the hell is he thinking"

People that own gold are going to realize soon that it is a dead horse....it is of a different era....it will drop below $200 or maybe lower.....

And, with all due respect, you are not in the stock market at all.....the landscape is littered with people calling for the end of the US for the last 40 years at least....

Why a Revamped Housing Plan Should Be Government's First Priority

I would question the basic need for the large public homebuilders. Their advantage is being able to develop very large tracts of land, 2K,4K,or 6K acres into a large subdivision. I think there are very few locations that are suitable or desirable for that type of development in the next several years.

Most of the public builders will go under or go private. They are better off just JVing with a hedge fund on specific projects than trying to be a public company with all of the expense that goes with that burden.

There is no "moat" around their business. Anybody and everybody can be a builder. No barrier to entry. They will not be able to compete with the local/regional builder who can act faster and knows market better

Wouldn't it be better to offer an incentive tax credit/rebate for a purchase of an existing home within a definite time period. This coupled with a 4.5% mortgage would get a lot of "fence sitters" to act.

The homebuilder is actually contributing to the problem as they are increasing supply in an already overbuilt situation.

Homebuilders Return to Former Glory May Be Wishful Thinking

The large public homebuilder will be a thing of the past by the end of 09. They simply cannot compete with the local/regional builder who can react quicker, knows the local market better and knows the sub-contractors better.

The strength of the big public HB is his access to vast amounts of capital in order to develop large subdivisions. Do we really think there is going to be a need for that product anytime in the forseeable future?

The smart ones will go private with assistance from a hedge fund looking to partner up with them....1 or 2 may stay public...the rest will slowly go to Chapter 7...liquidation....the... really have no assets other than too many lots/land.

One of Warren Buffett's main criteria is for a business to have a large "moat" around it....the homebuilding business does not even have a drainage ditch around it.....anyone can build a home....there are litterally thousands of small HB that build 1 or 2 houses a month.

Lennar's 50% Jump and Median House Prices

I find it interesting that everyone says "buy and hold for the long term" but if you house, which is suppose to provide shelter, goes down all hell breaks loose, LOL....

I also predict that most, if not all, publicly traded homebuilders will eventually go private or go under....they simply will not be able to compete with the smaller builders who know the market much better and can react much quicker.

The big homebuilders advantage is/was economy of scale on cost etc etc

The demand for large subdivisons is going to be greatly reduced for many years...and city government is going to much more reluctant to allow mass construction that is not needed....

Eddie Lampert's Troubles: It's Not Just Sears

It is a very encouraging thought that the so called "pros" don't have any better ideas than I do....

The only difference is I do take my stop loss if I am wrong....

But, then of course, I am trading with my own money, not OPM....makes a huge difference....LOL...

Toll Brothers' October Surprise

I think by the end of 2009 most if not all public homebuilders will be gone. The home building business is one that does not lend itself to being a public company.

They make a lot of money being able to produce a large amount of homes and sell them at a nice price. Those large developments are so overbuilt now it will take a decade for that need again, if ever. Also, the cities are going to be very reluctant to allow such massive development and then they are left to adminster the downside of the results.

The Toll Bros., Centex, Beazer, etc cannot compete with the smaller local builder who can move quicker and is established in the local area.
Their overhead/management levels add too much to the cost.

Homebuilding is one of the few industries that a small local guy can compete with a national public company on an equal basis. Each house is unique unto itself.

I think they are better to "hookup" with a hedge fund as a private company. This provides them with a large financial partner and removes the unreliable public financing sources.

Also, always remember, homebuilders are not in the real estate business. They are in the manufacturing business. No different than Sony, Dell, or Toyota

The Housing Solution No One Wants to Hear

That is actually a pretty good idea....

All of the people assuming the loan are going to be financially savvy...they will know what they are doing, work to re-structure etc etc...

This idea of "keep people in their homes" is simply political "blue sky"...these people simply can not afford the home, not now, not in two years...better to foreclose and place house on market at market price...buyers are everywhere

Because each loan is different there is no "one size fits all"....different laws in each state...it has to be done one loan at a time...the manpower, legal expense and time slippage are expensive.....

It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices

Good comments....exactly correct...market will find the "right" price....people forget that there is no real estate market.....ALL local....ALL neighborhood....