SteveD64

Why a Revamped Housing Plan Should Be Government's First Priority

I would question the basic need for the large public homebuilders. Their advantage is being able to develop very large tracts of land, 2K,4K,or 6K acres into a large subdivision. I think there are very few locations that are suitable or desirable for that type of development in the next several years.

Most of the public builders will go under or go private. They are better off just JVing with a hedge fund on specific projects than trying to be a public company with all of the expense that goes with that burden.

There is no "moat" around their business. Anybody and everybody can be a builder. No barrier to entry. They will not be able to compete with the local/regional builder who can act faster and knows market better

Wouldn't it be better to offer an incentive tax credit/rebate for a purchase of an existing home within a definite time period. This coupled with a 4.5% mortgage would get a lot of "fence sitters" to act.

The homebuilder is actually contributing to the problem as they are increasing supply in an already overbuilt situation.

Homebuilders Face More Tough Times in 2009

The big public homebuilders are dinosaurs.....they are ill suited to being a public company...better off going private...

Their biggest danger is that they have no moat around their business....the small local/regional homebuilders will run circles around them in the future.

They simply can no longer compete in the forseeable future

Eddie Lampert's Troubles: It's Not Just Sears

It is a very encouraging thought that the so called "pros" don't have any better ideas than I do....

The only difference is I do take my stop loss if I am wrong....

But, then of course, I am trading with my own money, not OPM....makes a huge difference....LOL...