SteveD64

Homebuilders Return to Former Glory May Be Wishful Thinking

The large public homebuilder will be a thing of the past by the end of 09. They simply cannot compete with the local/regional builder who can react quicker, knows the local market better and knows the sub-contractors better.

The strength of the big public HB is his access to vast amounts of capital in order to develop large subdivisions. Do we really think there is going to be a need for that product anytime in the forseeable future?

The smart ones will go private with assistance from a hedge fund looking to partner up with them....1 or 2 may stay public...the rest will slowly go to Chapter 7...liquidation....the... really have no assets other than too many lots/land.

One of Warren Buffett's main criteria is for a business to have a large "moat" around it....the homebuilding business does not even have a drainage ditch around it.....anyone can build a home....there are litterally thousands of small HB that build 1 or 2 houses a month.