c1ue's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/88714/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/48281-what-went-wrong-in-the-cdo-market?source=feed#comment-97003 97003
The methods you outline do not resolve this issue - there is nothing to prevent a redux of liar loans, etc as securitization itself creates a conflict of interest for the loan brokers.

This amounts to a complimentary article on Communism: great political philosophy of only human being truly all acted "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need" as opposed to "gain power and keep it by sticking it to everyone else"]]> Thu, 27 Sep 2007 12:11:29 -0400
The methods you outline do not resolve this issue - there is nothing to prevent a redux of liar loans, etc as securitization itself creates a conflict of interest for the loan brokers.

This amounts to a complimentary article on Communism: great political philosophy of only human being truly all acted "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need" as opposed to "gain power and keep it by sticking it to everyone else"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47952-without-a-widespread-economic-crash-a-housing-crash-is-unlikely?source=feed#comment-96734 96734
You did not address the issues of the subprime, Alt-A, and neg-am mortgage market segments essentially gone as of today.

Given that these were 40%+ of all mortgages made and further contributed to the (short term) affordability of houses, how does this jibe with your assertions?]]> Mon, 24 Sep 2007 13:21:49 -0400
You did not address the issues of the subprime, Alt-A, and neg-am mortgage market segments essentially gone as of today.

Given that these were 40%+ of all mortgages made and further contributed to the (short term) affordability of houses, how does this jibe with your assertions?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47853-the-scandal-of-options-backdating?source=feed#comment-96674 96674
Options backdating is like saying embezzlement doesn't harm anyone.

Sure, there is no smoking gun and dead body, but a crime has been committed nonetheless.

As for it being questionable whether Uncle Sam was harmed or not - how can you say there was no harm done when the top 5 tech companies from 1995 to 1999 paid almost no taxes? With billions of profit?

Furthermore the reason why companies were backdating options was not simply to give more money to themselves - options backdating also occurred for employees.

Why?

Because - as you SHOULD know - a company can write off the difference between the exercised option grant cost and the actual sale price.

Thus while the employee gains some income - the company gains a nice tax writeoff with zero risk.]]> Sun, 23 Sep 2007 17:45:26 -0400
Options backdating is like saying embezzlement doesn't harm anyone.

Sure, there is no smoking gun and dead body, but a crime has been committed nonetheless.

As for it being questionable whether Uncle Sam was harmed or not - how can you say there was no harm done when the top 5 tech companies from 1995 to 1999 paid almost no taxes? With billions of profit?

Furthermore the reason why companies were backdating options was not simply to give more money to themselves - options backdating also occurred for employees.

Why?

Because - as you SHOULD know - a company can write off the difference between the exercised option grant cost and the actual sale price.

Thus while the employee gains some income - the company gains a nice tax writeoff with zero risk.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45012-dont-fight-the-fed-why-not?source=feed#comment-94151 94151 Mon, 20 Aug 2007 15:16:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44919-whole-foods-market-80-bucks-for-two-bags-of-groceries?source=feed#comment-94150 94150 Mon, 20 Aug 2007 13:52:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43450-the-long-slide-of-ebay-s-gross-merchandise-volume-growth?source=feed#comment-92815 92815
Ebay has become more and more exclusively an outlet for 'hot' merchandise, cut-rate accessories from wholesalers operating out of China, and overstock retailers.

Only those with ridiculously large profit margins can build a lasting business on Ebay.

These issues coupled with Ebay's loss of place as the 'cool' way to sell stuff online, means that Ebay will continue to grow due to the even larger issues facing print classified ad media, but in turn Ebay will lose the long tail which led to its emergence.]]> Fri, 03 Aug 2007 14:37:06 -0400
Ebay has become more and more exclusively an outlet for 'hot' merchandise, cut-rate accessories from wholesalers operating out of China, and overstock retailers.

Only those with ridiculously large profit margins can build a lasting business on Ebay.

These issues coupled with Ebay's loss of place as the 'cool' way to sell stuff online, means that Ebay will continue to grow due to the even larger issues facing print classified ad media, but in turn Ebay will lose the long tail which led to its emergence.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41946-reconsidering-citigroup-the-middle-line-and-3d-marketing?source=feed#comment-92006 92006
At present money is very cheap to come by - due to Fed policies.

However, it is not very difficult to see a scenario where the present spending/negative savings scenario reverses both on the consumer and the commercial front. One of the bigger probabilities for this to happen is a collapse in the dollar - which in turn would drive interest rates up due to inflation increasing.

While this certainly would impact the lending side (and M & A, and securitization, etc) parts of the big bank financial models, I do wonder whether this is more or less adverse than a lack of credit to extend.]]> Tue, 24 Jul 2007 11:16:51 -0400
At present money is very cheap to come by - due to Fed policies.

However, it is not very difficult to see a scenario where the present spending/negative savings scenario reverses both on the consumer and the commercial front. One of the bigger probabilities for this to happen is a collapse in the dollar - which in turn would drive interest rates up due to inflation increasing.

While this certainly would impact the lending side (and M & A, and securitization, etc) parts of the big bank financial models, I do wonder whether this is more or less adverse than a lack of credit to extend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41821-how-to-profit-off-liquidity-drying-up?source=feed#comment-91927 91927
1. high quality bonds;

You mean like the AAA and AA rated MBS' and CDOs?

2. large cap stocks;

Which ones are not buying back shares thus making themselves look good? Also the ones which don't need large amounts of cheap loans?

3. defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples;

A rising tide lifts all boats. An ebbing tide does the opposite. 'Defensive' in this context just means you lose less money.

4. a more conservative mix of developed and emerging markets, and

If you mean invest less in developing countries, this would make sense

5. dividend and income strategies

See #2]]> Mon, 23 Jul 2007 11:56:05 -0400
1. high quality bonds;

You mean like the AAA and AA rated MBS' and CDOs?

2. large cap stocks;

Which ones are not buying back shares thus making themselves look good? Also the ones which don't need large amounts of cheap loans?

3. defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples;

A rising tide lifts all boats. An ebbing tide does the opposite. 'Defensive' in this context just means you lose less money.

4. a more conservative mix of developed and emerging markets, and

If you mean invest less in developing countries, this would make sense

5. dividend and income strategies

See #2]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41821-how-to-profit-off-liquidity-drying-up?source=feed#comment-91926 91926
1. high quality bonds;

You mean like the AAA and AA rated MBS' and CDOs?

2. large cap stocks;

Which ones are not buying back shares thus making themselves look good? Also the ones which don't need large amounts of cheap loans?

3. defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples;

A rising tide lifts all boats. An ebbing tide does the opposite. 'Defensive' in this context just means you lose less money.

4. a more conservative mix of developed and emerging markets, and

If you mean invest less in developing countries, this would make sense

5. dividend and income strategies

See #2]]> Mon, 23 Jul 2007 11:55:55 -0400
1. high quality bonds;

You mean like the AAA and AA rated MBS' and CDOs?

2. large cap stocks;

Which ones are not buying back shares thus making themselves look good? Also the ones which don't need large amounts of cheap loans?

3. defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples;

A rising tide lifts all boats. An ebbing tide does the opposite. 'Defensive' in this context just means you lose less money.

4. a more conservative mix of developed and emerging markets, and

If you mean invest less in developing countries, this would make sense

5. dividend and income strategies

See #2]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41813-chinese-growth-an-issue-of-supply-not-demand?source=feed#comment-91854 91854
Most of the observations are true to my own experience.

I do believe that insufficient consideration was given to the harmonious society thread.

Keep in mind that unlike Russia, the original 'Long March' individuals are still well represented in China's government.

These individuals know from personal experience what inequality can mean to a status quo.

The ideological facade is only useful so long as no large demographic group feels alienated enough to actively agitate for change. China has significant Muslim areas which are restive under the atheistic Communist rule, also Tibet. On top of all this is also the rural/urban divide - the gains made under the recent decade of China's new policies have not been shared equally.

Lastly the Wild West portion - this is a very good characterization. However, again the inherent social injustices which China is permitting - perhaps even encouraging - in order to maintain short/medium term labor competitiveness, this is specifically what Marx argued as the spur for overthrow of the capitalist society.]]> Sun, 22 Jul 2007 14:17:28 -0400
Most of the observations are true to my own experience.

I do believe that insufficient consideration was given to the harmonious society thread.

Keep in mind that unlike Russia, the original 'Long March' individuals are still well represented in China's government.

These individuals know from personal experience what inequality can mean to a status quo.

The ideological facade is only useful so long as no large demographic group feels alienated enough to actively agitate for change. China has significant Muslim areas which are restive under the atheistic Communist rule, also Tibet. On top of all this is also the rural/urban divide - the gains made under the recent decade of China's new policies have not been shared equally.

Lastly the Wild West portion - this is a very good characterization. However, again the inherent social injustices which China is permitting - perhaps even encouraging - in order to maintain short/medium term labor competitiveness, this is specifically what Marx argued as the spur for overthrow of the capitalist society.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41785-google-s-miss-a-wakeup-call-for-investors?source=feed#comment-91766 91766
Just look at their hiring in Russia and other places.

However, my questions are as follows:

1) Google has invested significant money in businesses other than search advertising. I have yet to see significant ROI or even return on this money. If this doesn't change soon, it means Google is just like MSFT: great core business, great at losing money at anything else

2) Google's international presence is not impressive. The tech base/MySpace/Youtube core is absolutely US; if either the international market is not ready and/or Google is not able to extend their dominance internationally, then again all these growth projections based on US economies of scale extended to the world are pipe dreams. Clearly in Asia Google is not succeeding - Korea, China, and Japan all have incumbent dominant internet presences. In Europe the picture is less clear.

No matter what, Google's wonderful promise will have to execute in these 2 areas in order to justify continued share price growth.]]> Sat, 21 Jul 2007 14:33:08 -0400
Just look at their hiring in Russia and other places.

However, my questions are as follows:

1) Google has invested significant money in businesses other than search advertising. I have yet to see significant ROI or even return on this money. If this doesn't change soon, it means Google is just like MSFT: great core business, great at losing money at anything else

2) Google's international presence is not impressive. The tech base/MySpace/Youtube core is absolutely US; if either the international market is not ready and/or Google is not able to extend their dominance internationally, then again all these growth projections based on US economies of scale extended to the world are pipe dreams. Clearly in Asia Google is not succeeding - Korea, China, and Japan all have incumbent dominant internet presences. In Europe the picture is less clear.

No matter what, Google's wonderful promise will have to execute in these 2 areas in order to justify continued share price growth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41749-investors-punish-google-for-increasing-expenditures?source=feed#comment-91724 91724
If you mean Warren B., then you should at least mention Warren B. care-abouts like cash flow, return on investment, etc.]]> Fri, 20 Jul 2007 16:59:49 -0400
If you mean Warren B., then you should at least mention Warren B. care-abouts like cash flow, return on investment, etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/41105-remaining-cautiously-optimistic-on-the-market?source=feed#comment-91289 91289
Satellite radio - nice technology, very poor financial performance
Gmail - wasn't free email popularized by Microsoft? Started in 1998 vs. Gmail's 2004?
Online classrooms - Get YOUR degree in 6 weeks! 'nuff said
iPhone - I'd believe the technology more if I were not literally surrounded by Aapl billboard ads. Aapl's ad spending numbers are not easy to find, but I have a hard time calling Apple a technology company when their R & D spending is 4% of their overall sales (2006). Their general expenses, including marketing, is 17%. To compare: Intel's R & D is 16.6% of sales with general being 17.2%. But Intel has capital equipment and has many more employees, furthermore is in a down revenue phase due to the price war with AMD.]]> Mon, 16 Jul 2007 12:22:18 -0400
Satellite radio - nice technology, very poor financial performance
Gmail - wasn't free email popularized by Microsoft? Started in 1998 vs. Gmail's 2004?
Online classrooms - Get YOUR degree in 6 weeks! 'nuff said
iPhone - I'd believe the technology more if I were not literally surrounded by Aapl billboard ads. Aapl's ad spending numbers are not easy to find, but I have a hard time calling Apple a technology company when their R & D spending is 4% of their overall sales (2006). Their general expenses, including marketing, is 17%. To compare: Intel's R & D is 16.6% of sales with general being 17.2%. But Intel has capital equipment and has many more employees, furthermore is in a down revenue phase due to the price war with AMD.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40219-excess-liquidity-who-s-left-holding-the-bag?source=feed#comment-90543 90543
Hence my giving much greater credence to his statements than OPM Greenspan.]]> Fri, 06 Jul 2007 10:58:07 -0400
Hence my giving much greater credence to his statements than OPM Greenspan.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40214-the-american-economy-is-more-than-holding-its-own?source=feed#comment-90541 90541
The question is whether the plankton theory is right:

Can the US economy survive with just the technical/financial/ma... elite thriving while every other American loses purchasing power?

Let them eat Cake!]]> Fri, 06 Jul 2007 10:55:36 -0400
The question is whether the plankton theory is right:

Can the US economy survive with just the technical/financial/ma... elite thriving while every other American loses purchasing power?

Let them eat Cake!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40212-16-reasons-to-be-bullish-on-this-market?source=feed#comment-90540 90540
With interest rates going up everywhere except the US and Japan, I am completely convinced that the Fed is more willing to risk a painful (but not imploding) housing market and sluggish economy vs. a truly significant dollar devaluation.]]> Fri, 06 Jul 2007 10:53:46 -0400
With interest rates going up everywhere except the US and Japan, I am completely convinced that the Fed is more willing to risk a painful (but not imploding) housing market and sluggish economy vs. a truly significant dollar devaluation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38225-foreclosures-are-skyrocketing?source=feed#comment-88824 88824
Your statement is anecdotally true, but it is always important to have context.

From EDD via the viewfromsiliconvalley.... website:

Dec'06 1MoChg 1YrChg
Total Workforce 857.3 0.2% 1.1%
Employed 820.9 0.5% 1.5%
Unemployed 36.4 -4.7% -5.5%
Unemployment % 4.2% -6.7% -6.7%
JOBS
Total Jobs 896.9 0.1% 1.8%
Total Farm Jobs 5.0 -19.4% -3.8%
Goods Producing 217.1 -0.4% 0.8%
Services Providing 674.8 0.5% 2.2%
GOODS PRODUCING:
Construction 45.8 -1.5% 1.8%
Computer Periph. 28.6 -0.3% 2.9%
Semiconductors 51.5 0.2% 1.0%
Electronic Instrmnts 19.3 0.5% -1.5%
Nondurable Goods 12.3 -0.8% -1.6%
Other Mfg. 59.6 -0.3% 0.5% ]]> Sun, 17 Jun 2007 03:18:38 -0400
Your statement is anecdotally true, but it is always important to have context.

From EDD via the viewfromsiliconvalley.... website:

Dec'06 1MoChg 1YrChg
Total Workforce 857.3 0.2% 1.1%
Employed 820.9 0.5% 1.5%
Unemployed 36.4 -4.7% -5.5%
Unemployment % 4.2% -6.7% -6.7%
JOBS
Total Jobs 896.9 0.1% 1.8%
Total Farm Jobs 5.0 -19.4% -3.8%
Goods Producing 217.1 -0.4% 0.8%
Services Providing 674.8 0.5% 2.2%
GOODS PRODUCING:
Construction 45.8 -1.5% 1.8%
Computer Periph. 28.6 -0.3% 2.9%
Semiconductors 51.5 0.2% 1.0%
Electronic Instrmnts 19.3 0.5% -1.5%
Nondurable Goods 12.3 -0.8% -1.6%
Other Mfg. 59.6 -0.3% 0.5% ]]>