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Without a Widespread Economic Crash, a Housing Crash Is Unlikely

"Here's my theory: the value of housing is roughly what the purchaser population can afford per month (a figure that will move up and down to some degree with interest rates of course) multiplied across the economy, PLUS whatever speculative and second-house market there is. "

You did not address the issues of the subprime, Alt-A, and neg-am mortgage market segments essentially gone as of today.

Given that these were 40%+ of all mortgages made and further contributed to the (short term) affordability of houses, how does this jibe with your assertions?