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Without a Widespread Economic Crash, a Housing Crash Is Unlikely

"Here's my theory: the value of housing is roughly what the purchaser population can afford per month (a figure that will move up and down to some degree with interest rates of course) multiplied across the economy, PLUS whatever speculative and second-house market there is. "

You did not address the issues of the subprime, Alt-A, and neg-am mortgage market segments essentially gone as of today.

Given that these were 40%+ of all mortgages made and further contributed to the (short term) affordability of houses, how does this jibe with your assertions?

Foreclosures Are Skyrocketing

RBirish,

Your statement is anecdotally true, but it is always important to have context.

From EDD via the viewfromsiliconvalley.... website:

Dec'06 1MoChg 1YrChg
Total Workforce 857.3 0.2% 1.1%
Employed 820.9 0.5% 1.5%
Unemployed 36.4 -4.7% -5.5%
Unemployment % 4.2% -6.7% -6.7%
JOBS
Total Jobs 896.9 0.1% 1.8%
Total Farm Jobs 5.0 -19.4% -3.8%
Goods Producing 217.1 -0.4% 0.8%
Services Providing 674.8 0.5% 2.2%
GOODS PRODUCING:
Construction 45.8 -1.5% 1.8%
Computer Periph. 28.6 -0.3% 2.9%
Semiconductors 51.5 0.2% 1.0%
Electronic Instrmnts 19.3 0.5% -1.5%
Nondurable Goods 12.3 -0.8% -1.6%
Other Mfg. 59.6 -0.3% 0.5%