Skip, Thanks very much for your thoughtful analysis. I wish both of us had "been out of here" a lot sooner. My problem was I heard what I wanted to hear. ..had a nice chat with Ed Begley when the stock was at 7...as I recall a Citicorp analyst had blown the whistle about possible debt covenant problems in '09, so I called the company and heard what I wanted to hear. Nobody misled me, but me. Sorry for both of us. Thanks again fror your take. Turbo
Andrew, I concur with the appreciation of your thoughtful piece. Would you be good enough to take a longer term view, back before the 2002 trough? What were the parallels with the 1974, 1987 and 1998 bottoms? Are they even relevant, given the different structure of world demand? In any event, thank you. Are you watching the Baltic Dryships index for a clue on the near term bottom of metals prices? Being long some of these stocks, I'm watching quite eagerly. Turbo
Lehman Follows Good Bank/Bad Bank to Redemption [View article]
Roger, I like your good bank/bad bank thesis. It isolates the problem, which is the fear based valuation of over the counter illiquid assets. Following the Enron debacle, the FASB implemented mark-to-market imperatives which in concept made sense, but in reality had only unintended negative consequences. When fear and uncertainty become the dominant characteristics in an illiquid over the counter market, the next bid is "no bid." Further, as a response to Richard, the "heart of the company" referring to Lehman Brothers is its people (employees, traders, sales personnel) who generate substantial profits. Separating the assets, deemed to be unpriceable at any realistic valuation allows a return of focus to the real "heart of the company." I would expect a separation of assets under the good bank/bad bank concept espoused by Roger to be worthy of an increase in the share price of Lehman stock. In such an event, I would look for a return to the $20+ range for their shares. IMO. Turbo
Bravo Jason! A well thought out piece with good advice. Having been a player for 40 years it's lovely to see what goes around come around. The Cramer mess is a travesty. Have you sent your Cramer-clips to CNBC? Thanks again, Turbo
Book Review: 'Blue Blood and Mutiny: The Fight for the Soul of Morgan Stanley' [View article]
I respectfully disagree with your rave review. As a former Managing Director of MS I thought that the book was as if had been written by the Group of Eight. I only made it through seventy pages.
S&P 500 Falls Well Below Analyst Targets [View article]
My dog Bailey has slept on his right side for the last five years. The day after Christmas he started sleeping on his left side. We are going to try to get him to predict the S & P....stay tuned.
Synalloy Corporation: A Sneaky Metals and Chemicals Growth Case [View article]
Dear Mich Trader, SYNL which I am long, and I doubt you still are needs an update report. Since your April report the compamy has posted another dynamite quarter. Also, the short interest has gone from under 200,000 shares to 1.3 million shares. The stock with no apparent resistance has dropped from 47 to 22. What are your thoughts? Thanks, Turbo
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Latest | Highest ratedAtlas Pipelines: I'm Out of Here [View article]
Thanks very much for your thoughtful analysis. I wish both of us had "been out of here" a lot sooner. My problem was I heard what I wanted to hear. ..had a nice chat with Ed Begley when the stock was at 7...as I recall a Citicorp analyst had blown the whistle about possible debt covenant problems in '09, so I called the company and heard what I wanted to hear. Nobody misled me, but me.
Sorry for both of us. Thanks again fror your take.
Turbo
How Low Can Mining Stocks Go? [View article]
I concur with the appreciation of your thoughtful piece. Would you be good enough to take a longer term view, back before the 2002 trough? What were the parallels with the 1974, 1987 and 1998 bottoms? Are they even relevant, given the different structure of world demand?
In any event, thank you. Are you watching the Baltic Dryships index for a clue on the near term bottom of metals prices? Being long some of these stocks, I'm watching quite eagerly.
Turbo
Lehman Follows Good Bank/Bad Bank to Redemption [View article]
I like your good bank/bad bank thesis. It isolates the problem, which is the fear based valuation of over the counter illiquid assets. Following the Enron debacle, the FASB implemented mark-to-market imperatives which in concept made sense, but in reality had only unintended negative consequences. When fear and uncertainty become the dominant characteristics in an illiquid over the counter market, the next bid is "no bid."
Further, as a response to Richard, the "heart of the company" referring to Lehman Brothers is its people (employees, traders, sales personnel) who generate substantial profits. Separating the assets, deemed to be unpriceable at any realistic valuation allows a return of focus to the real "heart of the company."
I would expect a separation of assets under the good bank/bad bank concept espoused by Roger to be worthy of an increase in the share price of Lehman stock. In such an event, I would look for a return to the $20+ range for their shares.
IMO.
Turbo
Is Trading for a Living Wise? [View article]
A well thought out piece with good advice. Having been a player for 40 years it's lovely to see what goes around come around.
The Cramer mess is a travesty. Have you sent your Cramer-clips to CNBC?
Thanks again,
Turbo
Book Review: 'Blue Blood and Mutiny: The Fight for the Soul of Morgan Stanley' [View article]
Crocs: Value Building or Value Trap? [View article]
Thanks for your thoughtful piece.
Turbo
Crocs: Value Building or Value Trap? [View article]
Thanks for your thoughtful piece.
Turbo
S&P 500 Falls Well Below Analyst Targets [View article]
MBIA In the News: I Won't Say I Told You So [View article]
My Ten Predictions for 2008 [View article]
Synalloy Corporation: A Sneaky Metals and Chemicals Growth Case [View article]
SYNL which I am long, and I doubt you still are needs an update report. Since your April report the compamy has posted another dynamite quarter. Also, the short interest has gone from under 200,000 shares to 1.3 million shares. The stock with no apparent resistance has dropped from 47 to 22. What are your thoughts?
Thanks,
Turbo
Smith Micro Software: The iPhone Alternative? [View article]
John S.