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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Market Correction? [View article]
    While corporate profits improved this quarter, the improvement was based on the substitute of human labor with automation and workforce reductions. While job creation is improving as well, the jobs that are being created, do not pay well and have fewer benefits attached to them. Further, Federal State and local governments continue to shed workers; and once again people are assuming debt that will be difficult to pay down. As for the rest of the world, there has been a marked reduction in transnational trade and economic activity, due in part to the fact that European leaders, while agreeing to a framework for monetary reform have not yet delivered on the structural reform requirerd to place the EU on a solid path to economic recovery. Also, let us not forget that the hard negotiations required to reduced spending in the United States have not - as of yet - taken place.

    While the stock market rally looks impressive it technically very weak and lacks the necessary volume to sustain above 14,200. Further it is trading within a narrow range of variation toward the top, suggesting the development of an intermediate top and a sharp decline over the next month or two. The fact recently reported that the public is pouring money back into equity mutual funds is not a good indicator. While we are on the road to recovery, it is a bit to early to become complacent, This market is discounting the notion that our economic problems, both national and international have been solved. this is simply incorrect. Remember the public is almost always wrong at market extremes. This includes the intermediate top that is currently developing
    Feb 3 05:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: The Best Long-Term Opportunity On The Dow [View article]
    Alex
    While agree on the macro-economics of your analysis, one short term issue that may be standing in the way of any upside breakout of Aloca,is the pending decision by Moody's Investors service to downgrade Alcoa's debt to junk-status. This I believe is unlikley considering the earnings report, and in this respect the price of Alcoa has not reflected the quarterly results. . However, I called Moody's to dertmine when they would publish their decision on Alcoa, an employee stated that while a decision can be made in weeks it actually may take as long as 90 days. This may present a short term drag on the stock but it actually creates a terrific buying opportunity when one factors improving market fundamentals for alumina and Alcoa's ability to engineer efficiencies and productivity increases
    Jan 10 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals: Raj Sets The Record Straight And Quiets The Naysayers [View article]
    Considering SPPI'S asset base, pipeline and current marketed products, I would resonably suspect that this company is on the radar screen of a number of large pharmaceuticle companies looking to acquire new products or participate in joint ventures. The probability is high that the decline in the stock price of SPPI ,created by all of the mis-information recently published and clarified by the company will help pave the way for the stock to move higher over the short term 6- 8 weeks. Over the longer term, the company must show sustainble earnings growth, which is indeed possible for resasons that I have articulated before on this blog
    Sep 3 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday's 10 Most Tweeted Stocks [View article]
    There is lots of (negative - noise) surrounding Spectrum Pharmaceuticles. Let us recall the sage wisdom of Fischer Black, past president of the American Finance Association:

    " People who trade on information make money, People who trade on noise as if it were information lose money. But without noise trading there can be no trading on information

    Remember most average investors lose money on Wall-Street because they don't do their own home-work. You need to have conviction about the business! and conviction is based on knowledge and information Only in this way can an investor understand and interpret the flow of news about a company or an industry group and elimiate the noise. You best bet??? don't be lazy.....crack open the form 10-K and other mandated SEC disclosure documents. Disclosure requirements may not be perfect and in some instances CEO's have had the audacity to present misleading information in their documents, they do get caught some of the time and they do prison time. What is the alternative ? Remember SEC manadated dosclosure is there to help create a level playing field in the equity markets. Look man! either you react with conviction and confidence in you investments decisions-----a detailed perusal of SEC documents will help you in this regard----or you base your invesment decisions on noise, emotion and the latest blog. Scared money never wins on Wall Street Successful investing is in many ways is similar to combat! Preparation and experience will train and prepare your mind to see the real dangers lurking in the Wall Street Jungle
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    Aug 29 04:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Isotopes, Shortages, Solutions & The Growing Demand Of Cancer Treatment [View article]
    Actually the use of radiolabeled antibodies may decline in the future as more advanced and highly selective-small molecule medications are attached to the antibodies.
    Aug 15 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Falls Hard With No Logical Explanation [View article]
    Often when stocks fall sharply after a great earnings report, this may be traced to the execution of the many stop loss orders that have been placed by momentum traders who do not understand SPPI as a going business. Professional investors, traders and institutions may look upon the decline as opportunity to purchase more SPPI shares at a lower price, as rapid downside volatility often provides a great buying opportunity for those who are informed. In fact financial,history suggests that the use of stop Ioss orders gives proessional investors an opportunity to shake-out all of the weak-holders just when the party is about to really get going. I suspect this is what has happened in this case; and I further suspect that professionals are continuing to purchase the stock in anticipation of increased quarterly earnings. Keep in mind when a company has a high level of institutional sponsorship, in this case over 60% for SPPI, further accumulation of the stock by institutional investors and other professionals must come at the expense of the public who tend on-balance use stop-loss orders to manage their risk-expoure rather than in-depth knowledge to protect and manage their positions.
    Aug 13 05:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Fate More Similar To Yahoo Or Google? [View article]
    Markets confound the majority almost all the time. Facebook will not be the exception. The public was wrong buying into all of the media-hype on the way up and the public, now focused on all of the negative media hype on the way down are either running away from the stock, selling the stock short,or are avoiding making a purchase just when the long-term value of the enterprise has increased. Today Investors viewpoints are being fashioned by a concerted re-hashing of all the backward-looking financial news - including this article - appearing in the financial media. I have reviewed this news coverge only to discover that most of it is old news distributed widely and frequently. Investors are basing their decisions on “noise” as opposed to “ information” Investors are simply being scared away from this stock, while the professionals armed with "information” as to oppoosed “noise" a term and distinction articulated by Fischer Black, past president of the American Financal Association, and developer along with Myron Scholes, of the Black-Scholes options models, are building their positions and acquiring a Facebook shares, a company with the potential for great future developments. Remember the sage wisdom of Rosthschild: "You must buy when the blood is running in the street" In Facebook’s case the shares have been taken to the back of the barn, shot multiple times and have been bled white. Also, stock traders must keep in mind the following maxim expressed by the famed British 19th century political-economist, William Stanley Jevons : "Man is governed by two sovereign masters: Pain and Pleasure”. Pleasure in my model is associated with the psychological awareness of the potential for gain, while Pain is associated with the psychological potential for loss. The financial press is playing investors like a grand-piano. Bottom Line.... do your own homework ! the traders and investors that take positions on the best information possible, and not the noise being dished up by the financial press, are going to make a killing in Facebook shares
    Aug 12 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Disease Might Have A Cure [View article]
    Markets confound the majority almost all the time. Facebook will not be the exception. The public was wrong buying into all of the media-hype on the way up and the public, now focused on all of the negative media hype on the way down are either running away from the stock or are avoiding making a purchase just when the long-term value of the enterprise has increased due to the decline in the stock price as compared to its long-term potential. Investors viewpoints are being fashoned by a concerted re-hashing of all the backward-looking financal news appearing in the financial media. I have reviewed this news coverge only to discover that most of it is old news distributed widely and frequently. Investors are simply being scared away from this stock, while the professionals armed with "information as oppoosed noise" a term and distinction articulated by Fischer Black, past president of the American Financal Association, and developer along with Myron Scholes, of the Black-Scholes options models, are building their positions and acquiring a Facebook shares, a company with great potential far less expensively than the IPO. Remember the sage wisdom of Rosthchild.... You must buy when the blood is running in the street. In Facebooks case the shares have been taken to the back of the barn, shot multiple times and have been bled white.

    Also, stock traders must keep in mind the following maxim expressed by the famed British 19th century political-economist Willam StanleyJevons."Man is governed by two sovereign masters:Pain and Pleasure. Pleasure in my model is associated with the psychological awarness of the potential for gain, while Pain is associated with the psychological potential for loss. The financial press is playing investors like a grand-piano. Bottom Line....the traders that take positions on the best information possible and not the noise being dished up by the financial press are going to make a killing in Facebook shares
    Aug 9 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Vs. LinkedIn: Buy The Bargain, Sell The Bubble [View article]
    Mark,you are on point...Perception drives everything and there are two things that characterize the Face Book IPO is this: The public was greedy on the way up and the public is running away on the way down. Somewhere in the middle lies the true value of Facebook. And that value is certainly North of $25The positive media frenzy . the pre- Facebook IPO was beyond everything I have ever seen. So naturally the public became very interested in this stock. Now the negative media frenzy surrounding Facebook is pushing the stock down to levels that are a screaming buy. In the middle of all this is the average investor-who always finds himself on the wrong side of the market. Greed and the potential for gain drove Facebook shares higher during the IPO and now fear and the potential for loss has driven the stock down to levels that make it an attractive investment ; and guess what ? you know the stock is going to run up again, and the public in-fear is always on the wrong side of the market, is going to be left behind. Let us recall the sage advice given to us by a brilliant 19th century British Economist William Stanly Jevons: “ Man is governed by two sovereign masters, pain and pleasure. The application of this knowledge applies to everything in life including the stock market
    Aug 5 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Complete Genomics, A Complete Future? [View article]
    This company is a "hot-house" of scientific talent and operational expertise and considering the structure of the business model and the forward business potential, a combination of direct investment, or equity issuance, while a bit dilutive, will give this comnpany the breathing room to move forward. And yes....Complete Genomics may be taken out. Considering the fact that the the practice of medicine and the approaval of drugs in the future will be done in an era of cost containment, the ability to determine disease potential as well as pinpointing what medications would actually work based on the nucleotide sequence of a given patient is an extraordinary advance not only in treatment specificity but affordability. The fact the the company is being sued for patent-infringement is an indication of just how important Complete Genomics is in this space. Many companies have claimed patent-infringement against others as a way to distract and slow down the targeted company's business initiative. Many of these suits have no merit and fail in court. Even when a win occurs, often the infringing company must pay a licensing fee for the infringed patent. But the business goes on.
    Aug 1 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil's CEO Discusses Q2 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Exxon appeared to manage its assets very well during the economic downturn beginning in 07 and 08 and extending to Q2-12.. Probabilities are high for oil prices to back-up to >100bbl as the EU moves forward on financial restructuring and China re-flates their domestic economy and encourages domestic spending on imports.
    Housing numbers in the U.S. provides some encouragement that real-estate continues to work-off housing inventories. As many of the dislocations that have effected the global economy begin to recede expect Exxon-Mobil to generate higher earnings based on higher crude prices and other operational efficiencies. Considering the fact that stocks discount in advance economic developments, it would appear that Exxon-Mobil will form a base in within a price line of 80 to 95 within the next several months and then move higher as the global economy recovers
    Jul 29 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Reached 10-Year Highs But Has At Least 20% Upside In The Immediate Future [View article]


    Brian the reason why the stock is currently trading with a P/E of under thirteen is directly related to the fact that investors are looking over their shoulders regarding the possibility of generic lucovorin making its way to the market and reducing Fusilev sales. At the moment, Fusilev sales are the key driver of not only current profits, but current and future product development initiatives. Naturally, any meangful disruption of Fusilev sales with generic Lucovorin could create serious operational difficulities for the company. However, with a bit of logic, investors can put this fear to rest. Perhaps one of the most important reasons that Lucovorin is in short supply is that the that ROI(return on investment in both an absolute and relative bases continues to diminish with this decades old medication. Clearly, the shortage is not based on a shortage of raw materials, manufacturing capacity, or technical and scientific talent required to produce adequate quantities of the medication. Today, with many newer medications coming of patent protection, multiple opportunities exist for generic- manufactures to earn a higher ROI by acquiring and manufacturing the newer medications. Secondly, within the next decade, new approaches to colorectal cancer will not only reduce the need for Lucovorin, but for Fusilev as well. Therefore, we will not see replenished supplies of Lucovorin, until or unless the U.S. government provides financial incentives for its continued manufacture or foreign, perhaps asian based phamaceutical companies, manufacture and export this medication into the United States. But once again even foreign manufactures need to develop a cogent business case for this activity. Deminishing returns for lucovorin, both absolute and realtive, and the attractivness of other medications comming of patent protection suggest that manufacturing and scientific resources will be employed only on projects that have favorable ROI profiles. Therefore, the shortage will persist. As such, it appears that Spectrum will benefit long enough from this shortage, to generate the kind of income required to bring its pipe-line to fruition; thereby facilitating a broadening-out of its marketed products while simultaniously reducing the contribution of Fusilev to earnings. SPPI has a great deal of potential with its currently market products and its growing pipeline of interesting pharmaceutical products in-train. The fact that SPPI has reached a new high today suggests that the market is catching on to the idea that Lucovorin may be in short supply not for months but for years, providing SPPI with the capital and an extraordinary business opportunity to evolve into a multiproduct powerhouse
    Jul 6 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals - The Shorts Are Playing Chicken And Are About To Lose [View article]
    Perhaps one of the most important reasons that Lucovorin is in short supply is that the that ROI(return on investment in both an absolute and relative bases continues to diminish with this decades old medication. Clearly, the shortage is not based on a shortage of raw materials, manufacturing capacity, or technical and scientific talent required to produce adequate quantities of the medication. Today, with many newer medications coming of patent protection, multiple opportunities exist for generic- manufactures to earn a higher ROI by acquiring and manufacturing the newer medications. Secondly, within the next decade, new approaches to colorectal cancer will not only reduce the need for Lucovorin, but for Fusilev as well. Therefore, we will not see replenished supplies of Lucovorin, until or unless the U.S. government provides financial incentives for its continued manufacture. Based on my analysis I assign a subjective probability of that outcome of less than 30%. Therefore, it appears that Spectrum will benefit long enough from this shortage to generate the kind of income required to bring its pipe-line to fruition, thereby facilitating a broadening-out of its marketed products while reducing the contribution of Fusilev to earnings. SPPI has a great deal of potential with its currently market products and its growing pipeline of interesting pharmaceutical products
    in-train. The fact that SPPI has reached a new high today suggests that the market is catching on to the idea that Lucovorin may be in short supply for many months if not years providing SPPI an extraordinary business opportunity to evolve into a multiproduct powerhouse
    Jul 5 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum: A Deeply Undervalued $10 Stock To Buy Now [View article]
    The problem with Spectrum Pharmaceuticels at the moment is directly related to the fact that Fusilev is driving earnings; and their is some concern that the generic version - if and when it becomes avaliable - will cut into sales. The fact is however that calcium lucovorin is an old medication that has been around for decades. Based on advances in the oncological sciences, new approaches to colon cancer are soon to become avaliable that will reduce the need not only for generic calcium lucovorin but for Fusilev a well. Therefore, The financial incentive for generic manufacturers to ramp up the production calcium lucovorin, considering the projected deminishing returns to calcium lucovorin production is holding up the production of the generic version. Further, newer medications are comming off patent protection that have the potential to provide a more compelling ROI than calcium lucovorin, over the longer term. This, I believe this will give Spectrum plenty of time, to market Fusilev to advantage and diversify their earnings away from Fusilev ove rthe long term. If this analysis is correct, Spectrum will regain a sustainable business momentum in the comming quarters
    May 7 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Will Surge Higher On Provenge, Strong Cancer Research [View article]
    Actually, SPPI appears to forming a solid base in 8.5-9.5 trading range. This would suggest that the clinical-failure has been fully discounted and investors are now considering the probability of future positive news flows impacting investor sentiment. Based on my data-base, biotech companies that have marketd products, products in-train, and cash on the balance sheet generally tend to survive clinical failures. unless the companies are horribly mis-managed in forward quarters. On that note, Rajesh clearly understands this business and I believe the SPPI business model remains viable.
    But Rajesh must do everything possible to move away from Fusilev as the primary engine of earnings growth. His quick acquisition of Allos indicates to me that Rajesh understand the importance of this iisue. I present two reasons for this analysis. First, the shortage of Leucovorin, a medication that has been around for decades, will experience diminishing demand as further advances in oncology provide new treatment approaches that will not require the use of leucovorin rescue or Fusilev for that matter. Second, the shortage of Leucovorin is clearly not based on a shortage of raw materials or technical ability, Lets clear this up now. I believe the shortage reflects an assessment by the companies that would fill the gap-that leucovorin will not provide the Return-On Investment in the long-run required to justify the investment. In fact some people in congress are looking to pass a bill similar to the Orphan Drug Act, that would provide financial incentives to pharma companies who engage in the production of drugs,- like leucovorin- that while immediatly necessary, present rapidly deminishing return profiles. Based in these assumptions, I believe the use Fusilev will continue to grow for the rest of 2012 and in the process provide Rejesh the time, liquidity and menuvering room to diversify the earnings base.
    Apr 18 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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