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pedroaf

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  • Much like UBS and Raymond James, Evercore's Rob Chira is offering a mixed outlook for iPhone sales. He sees FQ1 (Dec. quarter) sales coming in at a strong 50M, but expects volumes to drop to 39M in FQ2. Estimating 49% of iPhone sales now involving existing customers (up from 32% a year ago), Chira is cutting his FY13 revenue forecast for Apple (AAPL -0.3%) to $182B (consensus is at $191.5B). He still sees 24M iPads being sold in FQ1, but now expects 10M of them to involve the Mini (up from a prior 8M). [View news story]
    Yes, much like UBS that 1 day before the press release of the 2 million iPhones sold in China, said that iPhone 5 in China have disappointed sales and no lines. Just a bunch of idiots with conflict of interest. Summarizing: dishonest people.
    Jan 3 01:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    I like the discussion in this article. Intelligent and well studied about what might be one of the nicest turnarounds in the history of US retail.

    I was again in JC Penney store today, sunday. This time at Dadeland Mall in Miami, FL. Like in Aventura Mall, the store was again packed, but this time much more beautiful and impressive than the last time that I was in Aventura 2 weeks ago. I mean, the story was REALLY packed in this start of spring season.

    Every associate was with iPods in hands as mobile POS and the cash registers still in the store contradicting reports that they had been virtually eliminated.

    3 new in-store shops were opened since 2 weeks ago:

    1- Cosabella Amore: Intimate Apparel store, with beautiful and big display, banners and new lighting.

    2- Willian Rast: Mens cloth shop, the largest store among the 3 new ones. New lightning and Fixtures and a bunch of nice cloths and jeans.

    3- L'amour Nanette Lepore: Undoubtedly one of the most beautiful clothes with impressive quality of the whole store. My girlfriend was impressed. They adopted one even cheaper approuch with Nanette Lepore, no new fixtures at all despite being a line that will be continually updated.

    The attention to small details calls my attention: Each brand has its own brand labels, beautiful and not of JC Penney. Good point. The new price communication is more efficient and flashy. Shows the customer how much he's saving, compared with competitors and shows the suggested price of each manufacturer. Literally better.

    Free wi-fi in the Store with mobile POS + news shops in February + big march with Joe Fresh, Marchesa + New and totally revamped Home Sector with impressive lineup of designers + New and totally revamped Kids Sector (Disney, Carters want more?) + New and revamped streets = It's really really hard to believe that this turnaround will not get traction. It's already moving in the right direction and fast so be careful to not lose this train leaving the station.

    The best analysis is the simplest of all: Go to a JC Penney and see with your own eyes the changes. Dillards, Kohls, Marshall and even Macys for sure will have problems ahead with the new JCP.

    Edit - I forgot to say: I bought 5 arizona T-shirts for $5 each (yes five dollars). I did the transaction via iPod in a matter of seconds.
    Feb 3 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Could Be Why Apple Shares Are Down [View article]
    Every day is a drama for AAPL.

    Now its the excuse of tax selling. There are other stocks that is up 100% this year and nobody is selling to avoid higher taxes, e.g: BAC.

    Apple is suffering one real assault from the media coverage day by day. Estimates are right now on the ground with the earnings to be released in less than a month. Today was everything about tax selling and the Digitimes iPad Mini estimates of shipping for the current quarter of 2012. Digitimes its a joke and never had one real acurate forecast... but its Apple, and every negative news right now have a big impact on the stock.

    That's why I think its a real time to buy and sell around 600s to 650s after earnings for a quick profit or hold for a long term position if you believe that Apple will still be the king of its sector. The stock right now have one extreme degree of manipulation and this is happening to big players get in the trade.

    AAPL is a buy.
    Dec 26 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone's (AAPL) U.S. share soared to 53.3% in the 12 weeks ending Nov. 25, per Kantar ComTech - that's up from 48.1% in the 12 weeks ending Oct. 28, and far above the 35.8% seen in the year-ago period. Android's (GOOG) U.S. share fell to 41.9% (down 1090 bps Y/Y). But again, the roles are switched in Europe, and then some: Android had a 61% share in the EU5 (up 920 bps Y/Y), and the iPhone 25.3% (up 250 bps). Do European sales have something to do with iPhone order cut reports? Android had 72.2% of "Urban China," and 60.7% of Brazil. (tables - PDF) [View news story]
    And note that in China the market share still not reflecting the launch of iPhone 5.

    AAPL is a buy.
    Dec 21 11:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Groupon Now Worth Buying? [View article]
    Market is a box of surprises. GRPN hit 5.50 in the intraday highs and now is trading around 5.00s... crazy.

    I think market over reacted again with this paper, as facebook and amazon already tried to enter in this market, Groupon is the biggest and now is diversifying its business. Stock is cheap and have a main resistence at 5.48. If the breakout happens the paper have everything to go close the gap at 7.25. Good Luck.
    Oct 10 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    Above,

    Well said. I agree with you in everything.

    Despite the terrible earnings I will hold my position in JCP. Nothing change for me at all.

    The new price strategy, communication and shops started on Feb. The roll out of new shops is aggressive right now, 5 shops only in Feb. Joe Fresh is performing extremely well on online sales. Marchesa, Duro Olowu and Joe Fresh is coming now in March.

    And there is enormous opportunity in Home, right now performing at only $80 per square foot. The new Home will run above $200 IMO.

    A lot of hate, negative press/sell side right now. Time will tell the truth. Regarding liquidity issues, JCP still have several hundred millions of non-core assets to raise capital + bigger revolver backed by the lenders. The most important thing is get back customers in the stores and have positive comps. This will annihilate the liquidity worries.
    Feb 28 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    Hey people,

    About the interview yesterday, in my view, no news at all to the market that no longer trusts RJ. But confirmation for me and some of you guys of everything that we're expecting and analyzing:

    - Consumer are getting back in the stores.
    - Price communication is way better.
    - Spring season kick off with new brands and better collection.
    - Solid cash position to fund the transformation (Wall St. still expecting higher costs of transformation, wrong view, some shops are just fixtures and lightning changes)
    - 40 new stores until August confirmed. Well we saw more than 5 reports from big investment banks like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc saying that the company was way behind the schedule. BOGUS. Wall St Cartel must try a different approach now.

    All points cited seems legitimate and real. The 30 new brand stores with some huge names will completely change JCP and I'm sure that a two digits uptrend in sales and traffic is consequence.
    Feb 7 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's (JCP +6.3%) move to add manufacturers suggested retail prices alongside its own sale prices could help boost sales, according to analysts. Though it seems like a bit like a lesson from Retail 101, for close to a year the visibility for consumers on where JCP's prices stood in relation to rivals was as thick as London fog. [View news story]
    That's funny.

    Why nobody complains about Nordstrom (btw the most successful dept store in its segment) "libbys" or mobile POS? Why it's just JCP? Seems old employes really can't accept changes. Also transformation hurts and takes time to get traction. You know something? That's great: I'm buying JCP under $20 and I already watched this movie many times before. Let's Disney, Carters, Martha Stewart, Jonathan Adler, Joe Fresh, etc be in action and we talk later this year.
    Feb 1 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
    Some facts regarding the Home department of JC Penney and why this can unlock tremendous value to the company in a few months:

    - Today Home in JCP is the worst performer department in the entire store, with around $69 per square foot in sales. There is a huge opportunity here, the department right now is terrible.

    - The total size of the department is huge, covering about 10% to 15% of the entire store floor.

    - According to Ackman presentation, today Home is responsible for 15% of the total store revenue. ( http://on.wsj.com/SJK0OU )

    With the full remodeling of the department, and with the new and powerful brands like Martha Stewart, Jonathan Adler, Bodum, Michael Graves its reasonable and conservative to expect a gain in sales to $150 per square feet: So a 117% increment compared with today Home sales. Sephora, the best performer in the JCP is doing around $500 per square feet and the 10 new shops are all running around $230 per square feet.

    In an optimistic scenario, I do not rule out a +$200 per square feet in sales, running together with the other in-store shops sales, so a +%189 increase compared with today sales.

    Clearly there is a tremendous opportunity here and Ron knows it. He worked at Target in the 1990s in the same department and he simply revolutionized everything bringing the first designers signature collection in an affordable price (cheap chic), a move that no one did before at that time.

    Conclusion: If the Home remodeling takes 30 days to be complete, in 1 month sales will more than compensate after all. The network effect of the new JCP Home will be huge, bringing traffic to the store along with top names like Joe Fresh, Disney, Carters, Marchesa there is a enormous possibility of a short squeeze before everyone can imagine.
    Jan 28 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Sony At Your Own Risk [View article]
    - Sony has a whooping $9 Billion net cash position vs 11 Billion of Market Value.

    - Sony is the picture of Japan economy: No growth / Currency Hurting Exporters. I agree with the author of the article and this trend seems to be changing finally. There is a major consensus in Japan that the YEN need to be weaker to help a mainly exporter economy.

    - With the YEN at these levels, about 89 vs dollar Sony is already another company, much more competitive and this will bring a new perception of the market with the company with a huge rebound in margins in the televisions side.

    - The news products released, like the Xperia Z and Xperia XL smartphones was a major win at CES 2013. The phones win almost every press award of the event.

    - Sony brought Olympus stake at a very cheap price and the company is performing well in the Japanese Stock Market after the fraud recovering more than 150%.

    - Gaming Division should release the new Playstation 4 in the first half of the year and learned with the wrong strategy of the Playstation 3 (high cost and complicated architecture for gaming developing).

    At this levels, I can see a 100% rebound in SNE in 2013 a very achievable goal.
    Jan 17 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dirt was flying back and forth in a New York City courtroom where attorneys from Macy's (M) are battling with their counterparts from J.C. Penney (JCP) and Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia  (MSO) over a breach of contract claim. Though most of the bantering was over the finer points of the Macy's-JCP shops contract, evidence on e-mails sent out by JCP CEO Ron Johnson delivered an interesting anecdote. When push comes to shove at the retailer, it appears RJ talks strategy with Bill Ackman. [View news story]
    The other stuff related with Martha will be sold as JCP Everyday Gmom, without Martha brand because of the court battle vs Macy's.
    Feb 21 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dirt was flying back and forth in a New York City courtroom where attorneys from Macy's (M) are battling with their counterparts from J.C. Penney (JCP) and Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia  (MSO) over a breach of contract claim. Though most of the bantering was over the finer points of the Macy's-JCP shops contract, evidence on e-mails sent out by JCP CEO Ron Johnson delivered an interesting anecdote. When push comes to shove at the retailer, it appears RJ talks strategy with Bill Ackman. [View news story]
    Seeking Alpha insists in post this scam articles of NY Post. Almost everyday one "exclusive" negative article about JCP. New shops are coming, stores are busy and the stock is flying.

    Bye
    Feb 21 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP) trades weak in premarket action, down 4.3%, with Credit Suisse chiming in with a dour reiteration of its Underperform rating and Morgan Stanley chipping away at profit estimates on the retailer. Any kind of short-term trading in JCP looks as dangerous as ever with longs (Vornado, State Street, Pershing Square) and shorts (60M) duking it out. [View news story]
    You're right, I expressed it poorly. I mean Joe Fresh is a remodeling like JCP, Arizona, Levi's. Different from the "small" shops like Nanete Lepore, Cosabella, William Rast, LULU (this week) that they only add displays and some fixtures.

    Joe Fresh will be a full remodeling: floor, fixtures, lights.
    Feb 18 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP) trades weak in premarket action, down 4.3%, with Credit Suisse chiming in with a dour reiteration of its Underperform rating and Morgan Stanley chipping away at profit estimates on the retailer. Any kind of short-term trading in JCP looks as dangerous as ever with longs (Vornado, State Street, Pershing Square) and shorts (60M) duking it out. [View news story]
    Nice Gmom,

    Only 25 construction days to open a big new store like Joe Fresh. Great.
    Feb 18 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
    I think you get a better picture of how the other new in-store shops going to perform analyzing the brands, not simple comparing the old concept with the new one. It's not only about layout, new products at all. It's about the powerful name that this new brands have and the exclusivity items that they going to sell. So I think you can start to notice how important this is. It's not only a big name, but it's a big name with exclusivity items. This combination have a strong positive effect to bring traffic to the stores.

    So if you bet against JC Penney at this prices you are basically betting against Disney (exclusive collection, not licensed items), Joe Fresh (online exclusive and one of the fastest growing cloth brands in the world), Martha Stewart (exclusive collection differing from Macys), Jonathan Adler (exclusive brand/collection), Michael Graves (excusive collection to JCP), Tourneau (exclusive watch collection to JCP), Carter's (some items exclusive to JCP), Pantone (exclusive)...

    This is one of the few examples of big names coming building the stores inside JCP. It's clearly for me that this year will be the tipping point of JCP and in a few months the store will be a totally different place to shop with a vast number of exclusive items from big name brands.

    There is several famous names coming with small stores also like: Nanette Lepore, Marchesa, Cosabella, Duro Olowu, LULU, William Rast, etc, now in the first quarter.

    It clearly precipitated talk that JC Penney is failing right now. In a matter of months everyone will witness a totally different store. The Home Department of JCP that is lagging behind all other sectors in terms of sales will be one of the most important stars in this retail revolution. Combine this with a very soft 2012 comp and IMO this will be the perfect recipe for a major covering in short positions.
    Feb 13 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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