Four Dying Silicon Valley Companies [View article]
Being in the Silicon Valley, one would have thought that you might have better insights on Palm's Pre and WebOS before their launch. Apparently, that was not the case.
This will be a marriage made in hell, like merging Google with Microsoft. Palm may be small right now, but it is 100X more innovative than Dell. There will be a serious clash of corporate cultures that will probably end up with most, if not all, talented Palm engineers leaving the company.
Palm shareholders will be much, much better served long-term if Palm stays independent and grows organically.
Research In Motion: Vulnerable to a Takeover Bid? Part 2 [View article]
I posted a reply to your previous article, and this one is not different in theme. RIMM is still over-valued at $55 plus changes. Push email is quickly becoming a commodity and Microsoft is leading the charge. And that's why your thesis of RIMM being attractive to Microsoft is not logical.
RIMM is last cycle's story, just like Yahoo and Cisco before the tech crash in 2000. RIMM will still be around but its best days are behind her.
This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force [View article]
Not sure if I understand what this article is all about. Is this some movie review for the Star Wars trilogy?
I accepted long ago that I don't know and will never know where the stock market bottom is. Instead of spending my time trying to buy stocks at the bottom, I find it much more productvie to figure out which great companies I can buy at attractive valuation.
And let's not forget that buying a stock is only half of the equation, the other half, and probably the harder half, is to figure out when to sell.
Research in Motion: Vulnerable to a Takeover Bid? [View article]
RIMM is still over-valued at the current price. And in the current market, no company in any sector is willing to do a big M&A deal in this environment. Walgreen just withdrew its offer for Long drugs, and it was for less than $3 billion.
Buffett's Big Bet: The Real Value of the Berkshire Investment in Goldman Sachs [View article]
>>>Dividend Value
We’ve also got to account for the value of the $500 million a year in dividends. The Net Present Value of those (discounted at a 10% rate) are worth $1.96 billion if it Berkshire holds them for five years.
Preferred Share Value
Finally, we’ve got to take the value of the preferred shares. Goldman has to buy these back at some time or they will be an annual $500 million drain on its annual cash flow and pre-tax profits.
The value of these will fluctuate with general interest rate levels and Goldman’s creditworthiness so it’s tough to put a value on these. But if we take an 8% discount rate, the present value of a $5.5 billion repayment from Goldman in five years (as part of the deal, Goldman has to pay a 10% penalty for buying back the preferred shares) is $3.62 billion.<<<
Your analysis is not consistent. You use a 10% discount rate for the dividend but 8% on the preferred stock value. Why?
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Latest | Highest ratedState of the iPhone: Strong. Very Strong. [View article]
Smartphones: It's the Software, Stupid! [View article]
Oh, I forgot, you actually suggested the demise of Palm in one of your posts here before the launch of Palm Pre and WebOS.
Quoting John Maynard Kyenes:
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
When will you change your mind, professor?
Four Dying Silicon Valley Companies [View article]
Should Dell Buy Palm? [View article]
Palm shareholders will be much, much better served long-term if Palm stays independent and grows organically.
Palm: Showing Up the Analysts [View article]
Palm Deal: Lifeline, But Oh That Dilution [View article]
Who do you believe? The money guy or the analysts....
I am with the guy who actually has skin in the game.
Palm: Dead Company Walking? CEO Says No [View article]
John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory [View article]
If this is truly the end of the world, your stock portfolio is the last thing you need to worry about.
Here I Go, Criticizing Warren Buffett [View article]
Julian Robertson: Some Buying, but Bearish on the Economy [View article]
Only time will tell.
Six Tech Stocks the Rally Forgot [View article]
Research In Motion: Vulnerable to a Takeover Bid? Part 2 [View article]
RIMM is last cycle's story, just like Yahoo and Cisco before the tech crash in 2000. RIMM will still be around but its best days are behind her.
This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force [View article]
I accepted long ago that I don't know and will never know where the stock market bottom is. Instead of spending my time trying to buy stocks at the bottom, I find it much more productvie to figure out which great companies I can buy at attractive valuation.
And let's not forget that buying a stock is only half of the equation, the other half, and probably the harder half, is to figure out when to sell.
Research in Motion: Vulnerable to a Takeover Bid? [View article]
Sell your RIMM at the next uptick.
Buffett's Big Bet: The Real Value of the Berkshire Investment in Goldman Sachs [View article]
We’ve also got to account for the value of the $500 million a year in dividends. The Net Present Value of those (discounted at a 10% rate) are worth $1.96 billion if it Berkshire holds them for five years.
Preferred Share Value
Finally, we’ve got to take the value of the preferred shares. Goldman has to buy these back at some time or they will be an annual $500 million drain on its annual cash flow and pre-tax profits.
The value of these will fluctuate with general interest rate levels and Goldman’s creditworthiness so it’s tough to put a value on these. But if we take an 8% discount rate, the present value of a $5.5 billion repayment from Goldman in five years (as part of the deal, Goldman has to pay a 10% penalty for buying back the preferred shares) is $3.62 billion.<<<
Your analysis is not consistent. You use a 10% discount rate for the dividend but 8% on the preferred stock value. Why?