Peter Lynch's Comments

State of the iPhone: Strong. Very Strong.

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:25:51 -0400

Apple fan boy at his best. As long as the stock price keeps going up, I guess all is well.

Smartphones: It's the Software, Stupid!

Sat, 28 Mar 2009 19:34:06 -0400

Mmmmm....what about Palm, Professor? Palm's new WebOS is better than Apple's iPhone OS in many regards, if not flat-out superior.

Oh, I forgot, you actually suggested the demise of Palm in one of your posts here before the launch of Palm Pre and WebOS.

Quoting John Maynard Kyenes:

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

When will you change your mind, professor?

Four Dying Silicon Valley Companies

Sat, 24 Jan 2009 23:31:05 -0500

Being in the Silicon Valley, one would have thought that you might have better insights on Palm's Pre and WebOS before their launch. Apparently, that was not the case.

Should Dell Buy Palm?

Sat, 17 Jan 2009 11:39:42 -0500

This will be a marriage made in hell, like merging Google with Microsoft. Palm may be small right now, but it is 100X more innovative than Dell. There will be a serious clash of corporate cultures that will probably end up with most, if not all, talented Palm engineers leaving the company.

Palm shareholders will be much, much better served long-term if Palm stays independent and grows organically.

Palm: Showing Up the Analysts

Sat, 10 Jan 2009 19:45:24 -0500

Don't you think that the readers of SeekingAlpha would be much better served if you had published this article before the Palm's CES announcement?

Palm Deal: Lifeline, But Oh That Dilution

Mon, 22 Dec 2008 17:22:52 -0500

I wonder what the EP guys know that these analysts don't.

Who do you believe? The money guy or the analysts....

I am with the guy who actually has skin in the game.

Palm: Dead Company Walking? CEO Says No

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 12:41:40 -0500

Love all the negative sentiments on palm....makes the recovery that much more sweeter.

John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory

Mon, 17 Nov 2008 18:11:51 -0500

Dr. Hussman, as usual, is right on. We need more fund managers like Dr. Hussman who is dedicated to his craft.

If this is truly the end of the world, your stock portfolio is the last thing you need to worry about.

Here I Go, Criticizing Warren Buffett

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:51:22 -0400

I don't get this article at all. Is Buffett not allowed to express his own opinions at all?

Julian Robertson: Some Buying, but Bearish on the Economy

Mon, 13 Oct 2008 23:26:37 -0400

Julian appears to have a different longer-term view from Warren Buffett.....I wonder who is right.

Only time will tell.

Six Tech Stocks the Rally Forgot

Mon, 13 Oct 2008 22:47:24 -0400

Regarding Palm, take a look at its Friday performance and perhaps you would come to a different conclusion???

Research In Motion: Vulnerable to a Takeover Bid? Part 2

Sat, 11 Oct 2008 10:08:35 -0400

I posted a reply to your previous article, and this one is not different in theme. RIMM is still over-valued at $55 plus changes. Push email is quickly becoming a commodity and Microsoft is leading the charge. And that's why your thesis of RIMM being attractive to Microsoft is not logical.

RIMM is last cycle's story, just like Yahoo and Cisco before the tech crash in 2000. RIMM will still be around but its best days are behind her.

This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 23:31:33 -0400

Not sure if I understand what this article is all about. Is this some movie review for the Star Wars trilogy?

I accepted long ago that I don't know and will never know where the stock market bottom is. Instead of spending my time trying to buy stocks at the bottom, I find it much more productvie to figure out which great companies I can buy at attractive valuation.

And let's not forget that buying a stock is only half of the equation, the other half, and probably the harder half, is to figure out when to sell.

Research in Motion: Vulnerable to a Takeover Bid?

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 13:27:09 -0400

RIMM is still over-valued at the current price. And in the current market, no company in any sector is willing to do a big M&A deal in this environment. Walgreen just withdrew its offer for Long drugs, and it was for less than $3 billion.

Sell your RIMM at the next uptick.

Buffett's Big Bet: The Real Value of the Berkshire Investment in Goldman Sachs

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 13:42:04 -0400

>>>Dividend Value

We’ve also got to account for the value of the $500 million a year in dividends. The Net Present Value of those (discounted at a 10% rate) are worth $1.96 billion if it Berkshire holds them for five years.

Preferred Share Value

Finally, we’ve got to take the value of the preferred shares. Goldman has to buy these back at some time or they will be an annual $500 million drain on its annual cash flow and pre-tax profits.

The value of these will fluctuate with general interest rate levels and Goldman’s creditworthiness so it’s tough to put a value on these. But if we take an 8% discount rate, the present value of a $5.5 billion repayment from Goldman in five years (as part of the deal, Goldman has to pay a 10% penalty for buying back the preferred shares) is $3.62 billion.<<<

Your analysis is not consistent. You use a 10% discount rate for the dividend but 8% on the preferred stock value. Why?

WaMu's Downfall: No Safeguards

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 13:34:54 -0400

>>>I have accounts with WaMu (WM) and am happy that JPMorgan (JPM) has taken them over. JPM's James Dimon has the respect of many investors and Wall Street, and thankfully, my deposits are safe at WaMu.<<<

Your accounts are safe, no matter which banks you use, as long as they are FDIC insured and under the limit. A couple, with a little planning, can have accounts totaled up to $600,000 insured in one bank.

If you have millions of dollars in savings, checking and CD accounts in one bank (I don't care if your bank is JP Morgan, Citi, BOA, US Bancorp, or your local credit union), you need to spread that money around or buy yourself some treasury bills.

The Deal's Getting Done, But Will It Work?

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 13:24:10 -0400

I am going to be critical here, not just to David but to a lot of media and bloggers out there too. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and that's what makes our country great.

However, when I read statement like this below, I really question these people's judgments:

>>>All “solutions” to the crisis at this point in time are bad solutions. The time to act was 10-15 years ago, where we could have implemented contra-cyclical policies in bank regulation, as well as enforcing a strict separation between regulated and nonregulated financial intermediaries. (No ownership, no lending, no derivative agreements.)<<&l...

In hindsight, everything is 20-20. If I had known what I know now 10-15 years ago, I would have bought as much AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, POT as I could on margin! There will be time when we need to look back and reflect upon what had gone wrong and try not to make the same mistakes again. And that's exactly what Ben Bernake is trying to do by making sure that we don't make the same policy mistakes that we did back in the 1930's.

Folks, we have a 5-alarm fire going on right now in our financial system. Let's try to put the fire out first before we start blaming the builder for not putting in a sprinkler system 10-15 years ago.

FDIC Won't Run Out of Money, But WaMu May Be Toast

Sat, 20 Sep 2008 21:38:45 -0400

Mr. Whalen's analysis is all good and fine. Wamu wouldn't be up for sale or other strategic options if its real estate book weren't performing poorly.

However, the latest development in Washington is a game changer for Wamu. FDIC doesn't want to take over wamu...they want it sold or recapitalized. With the $700 billion RTC package in development, wamu has just become a lot more attractive to a lot more banks and priviate equity firms. And this RTC-like package also bought wamu something that they didn't have before just two days ago - time.

WaMu on the Brink

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 13:41:06 -0400

Blood on the street......buy, buy, buy; selectively, of course.

WaMu on the Brink

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 11:56:30 -0400

Hats off to the editor for removing an inaccurate article. Quality before quantity, always.

Stunning Reversals: Is This a Market or a Casino?

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 14:03:37 -0400

And you came to all these conclusions by 10:30 am?

What happens if the market reverses course and goes up 3% tomorrow? Do you change your "conclusions" again?

The Most Essential Secret to Successful Investing

Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:04:07 -0400

>>>I first suggested shorting financials to readers of my advisory service International Wealth Advisory in late January 2008. We bought the UltraShort Financials Proshares (SKF) an inverse fund that returns 2X <<

And you are bragging about this??? Most smart money shorted financials in 2007, not 2008.

>>>We ended up closing out our position for a 51% gain in mid-July. Being patient nearly doubled our return—our original gain, if you’ll recall, was 30% in February<<<

Your definition of patience must be different from mine and Buffett's. 6 month is not patience. 6 year is.

Why is Bill Miller Increasing His Stake in Freddie Mac?

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:12:10 -0400

Big money is made when one goes against the crowd and eventually proven right. Miller is not a day trader and he is not just buying a few thousand shares.

Only time will tell if Miller is right. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

The ABCs of the Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac Problems

Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:57:19 -0400

>>>A bailout would essentially double the public debt, risking a downgrade in the US credit rating.<<<

Guaranteeing a debt is very different from acutally issuing a debt......please be more responsible in your writing.

The Circuit City Train Wreck: Kudos to Blockbuster for Walking Away

Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:22:19 -0400

>>>At this point, there is really nothing else to say on the subject.<<<

But you kept going, going and going:)

It is good to see so many CC haters out here....time will tell.

RIM Misses Estimates; Palm’s Revenue Also Down

Wed, 02 Jul 2008 23:37:23 -0400

>>>Many analysts agree with my view.<<<

My "favorite" line in the post. If everybody agrees with you, doesn't that make your view essentially worthless?

Buffett, Lynch, Morales? Q&A with Gil Morales

Wed, 02 Jul 2008 23:20:30 -0400

when you are as big as buffett and Lynch, technical analysis simply just doesn't work.

T. Boone Pickens Hedge Fund Holdings

Wed, 21 May 2008 21:19:50 -0400

I wonder if Boone Picken is the new Henry Blodget or the new Mary Meeker or the new Abby Cohen....

Apple's $199 iPhone Is a Game-Changer

Thu, 01 May 2008 17:13:18 -0400

"My sources tell me that the Treo makes a better paper weight than a smartphone."

My sources??? Ever heard of the Centro? 1+ milion others did...

Check your sources again.

AT&T Subsidy of Apple's iPhone Would Have Dramatic Effect - Bernstein

Thu, 01 May 2008 12:06:05 -0400

>>>But he adds that the overall impact would be positive, since the iPhone is more profitable for Apple than the Touch given the fees the carrier pays back to Apple.<<<

T is not dumb. I doubt that they will subsidize the iphone by $200 AND still give Apple the same amount of revenue share it current has. Most likely scenario is that the subsidy will come out of Apple's revenue share.

If the $200 subsidy does take place, this just goes to show who flawed Apple's current iphone pricing/revenue strategy is. Apple has underestimated the impact of gray-market unlocked iphones, and they are hurting carriers' iphone sales all over the world.

And the $200 subsidized iphone will not only hurt the itouch sales, it will also hurt all ipods sales. Apple is in a tough spot.....is Jobs willing to cannabalize its own ipod/itouch sales to grow iphone's revenue?