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doggiecool

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  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: Groupon [View article]
    "following the company's quarterly blow-up"

    Wow! This is the worst article I have ever read on SA. GRPN slaughtered revenue estimates by a mile. They also beat on earnings by 2 cents.

    "except that earnings estimates, growth projections and price targets were coming down."

    Earnings estimates for the current quarter went down because GRPNs management decided to pull in the costs of their recent acquisitions into the quarter. Revenue is still growing at a 10% clip. As for price targets going down? Show us the proof? Which analysts are crapping on GRPN? Are they sell side or buy side analysts?

    So the real question is why is this article lying?
    I thought SA has censors/editors that can vent this trash?

    Anyone know if we can flag this article as 'Spam'?
    Apr 25 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Drexel Hamilton Correct In Assuming That Micron Technology Could Double? [View article]
    @chicken :)
    maybe Greenlight is STILL building a position :)
    Apr 25 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Time To Buy More Shares [View article]
    @Nice,
    short term options are rigged when there are large wagers involved.

    Basically, when the derivative wager (option) on an equity (stock) becomes larger than the underlying wagers on the equity itself, the share price does not follow the short term fundamentals of the company. Rather it follows the movements of the derivative wagers. Thus, in casino lingo, it becomes the 'house' rake. A suckers game, for people that believe they can time the market.

    NOTE: Using options to hedge ones core position is perfectly fine.

    good luck
    Apr 24 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Drexel Hamilton Correct In Assuming That Micron Technology Could Double? [View article]
    @1eyed,
    big aka Doggiecool is the smartest dog in the pound... yet I cannot digest the statement "their EPS for MU up to $0.19 (FY14) and $0.20 (FY15), respectively"

    anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
    Apr 23 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Is A Good Long-Term Investment [View article]
    @everyone,
    first and foremost, I own a large position in GRPN.

    I think this article doesn't go the next level in analyzing GRPN's potential. Some of the KEY metrics that should have been mentioned...

    1.) GRPN has 11,200 employees. GRPN has just got their 'self serve' deal operations running. I believe GRPN had mentioned that it takes about 22 employees to work a deal from start to end. According to GRPN's management, this 'self serve' system is really taking off. Thus, as an investor, I would want to know what will happen to the excess staff that used to work on customer deals/programs? I imagine that if the self serve system takes over 20% of the business, then GRPN in theory can reallocate 2,000 employees to work on other initiatives, such as:

    A.) Beef up and grow the lucrative travel and hospitality business (80% plus margins)
    B.) Grow the TicketMonster brand to include international markets.
    C.) Staff, manage (inventory, procurement) and orchestrate the distribution centers (aka Amazon model)
    D.) Pursue even more volume in the local deals market
    E.) The last thing to consider, if growth in revenues/earnings are not obtainable, is to layoff the excess employees. NOTE: 2,000 employees with a base salary of $50K + $25K in benefits would amount to $165 Million in annual cost savings. This would INSTANTLY double GRPN shares. Its a path that GRPN should NOT take, unless growth stalls.

    2.) Groupon has just started to broadcast TV commercials in select markets in the US. Otherwise, as promised in their last quarterly, GRPN will ramp up marketing going into the end of the year. This effort should yield SIGNIFICANT earnings growth (according to the CEO).

    3.) Groupon's pristine balance sheet. They have over $1.2 billion in net cash. I believe GRPN's management has finally picked key market segments that they want to exploit. They will no longer be taking on acquisition 'crapshots'. They have the pieces in place and will spend the money on internal efforts to execute.

    4.) Management execution. How has GRPN's management executed to their plan. was LivingSocial a bust, etc? They have a lot of major initiatives going on, that span multiple markets and international borders. Keep your eye on management. If they execute to plan, this equity goes much higher than $15. FYI, the story won't be played out, until another couple years. However, if they execute on near term initiatives, GRPN gets back to $13 by next February.

    good luck everyone
    Apr 22 01:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Numbers Game [View article]
    @Value,
    and like clock work, Cramer this morning said "if there are no new fabs being built, Micron goes much, much, much higher"

    p.s.
    you get the sneaky suspicion that Cramer is following me on SA? :)
    Apr 22 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    @Hammer,
    I wouldn't even consider getting off, until at least 4 quarters AFTER dividends and buybacks are announced.
    Apr 22 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Numbers Game [View article]
    @Value,
    "there is a horde of value investors in love with MU"

    correct. It is indeed a crowded trade (it's the only thing negative about the investment), thus I strongly recommend that no one play with options on the equity. Only buy real shares.
    Apr 21 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Numbers Game [View article]
    @value,
    and like clock work MU gets an upgrade :)

    "Micron price target raised to $50 from $30 at Drexel Hamilton
    Drexel Hamilton raised Buy rated Micron estimates and increased its price target to $50 from $30 due to higher pricing and margin trends. The firm expects DRAM pricing to remain firm and for minimal industry capacity additions this year, resulting in rising earnings, an improving balance sheet and greater share upside potential."

    p.s.
    you get the sneaky suspicion that someone at Drexel is following me on SA? :)
    Apr 21 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    @Keith,
    I as I have said NUMEROUS times before you said it :) the Options game will be rigged on MU for the next year. DO NOT DO ANY short term options PERIOD.
    Apr 21 10:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Thought Twitter's User-Base Problem Was Bad - It's Atrocious [View article]
    @150,
    "I don't understand the business significance of tweets reprinted on television"

    TWTR has been working with TV broadcasters to deliver social integration into their live broadcasts. Normally cable companies broadcast their sports programming in HD. Say channel 200 was the non HD broadcast, one could go to channel 200-1 to see the HD version of the channel. Well, I actually saw a local broadcast of a sporting event that allowed one to go to channel 200-2. This channel was a broadcast of the event with a scrolling ticker of real time Tweets. It was very entertaining to read all the local commentary, especially when the refs were 'obviously' blowing calls or whenever he coach made some questionable play calling. It literally was a different form of TV/entertainment. I believe that is the future of TV. If twitter controls/owns that platform, it will be one of numerous markets that will provide twitter with huge revenues and profits. How does Twitter monetize it? Obviously it will sell the platform to all the cable providers, but more importantly, it will own the data/tweets. Hence, it will be able to sell that data to marketers. It will also allow you and me to search that data, ala Google. It will provide targeted advertising for those searches. So how much money can Twitter derive from that model? Look at Google for your answer.
    Good luck.
    Apr 21 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Could Double Again: Here's How [View article]
    Grrrrrrr!
    it's $149.99 not $149
    Apr 18 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Numbers Game [View article]
    @value,
    one thing to consider about MU as it relates to moderating the cyclic/commodity aspects of their business...

    Micron will now be the largest DRAM/NAND manufacturer in the world...

    http://bit.ly/1eQZ0ZR

    More importantly, as it relates to NAND manufacturers, this is a VERY important article to read.

    http://bit.ly/1eQZ0ZU

    PAY ATTENTION to the last sentence in the article.

    Everything is pointing towards the same paths the hard drive manufacturers went through (take a look at their 3-4 year charts, WDC/STX).

    MU will have the luxury of balancing their manufacturing resources between NAND and DRAM, something no one else in the world has. This alone will shield it from the roller coaster of margins cycles.

    good luck
    Apr 18 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Thought Twitter's User-Base Problem Was Bad - It's Atrocious [View article]
    @150,
    when I get time this weekend, I will respond to your question (don't want to give a short answer to an important question).
    Apr 18 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Thought Twitter's User-Base Problem Was Bad - It's Atrocious [View article]
    @piptief,
    are you short right now?
    Apr 18 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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2,389 Comments
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