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doggiecool

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  • Buy Groupon When It Hits $6 [View article]
    @tron,
    "-Remove/vote Lefko off the island immediately. Keywell maybe."

    Lefko & Keywell own about 67% of the voting power. Thus, they can't be removed.

    As stated above, Leftko & Keywell need to work with an outside VC/Investor/Hedge fund to acquire a large portion of their $1B position.
    May 29, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Groupon When It Hits $6 [View article]
    @rnathaniel,
    there's literally dozens of things Groupon can EASILY do to facilitate growth. Other ideas that come to mind...

    - Allow registries to be set up. For instance, many Wedding couples set up registries at local merchants, so attendees of the wedding can purchase gifts. Why not allow GRPN users the ability to set up On-Line registries? Thus, people can purchase GRPN Goods or Local deals for events such as weddings, birthdays, promotions, etc,. This would be perfect for out of town guests, as they could browse for Local deals without knowing the city/locale.

    - Once GRPN messaging is in place(as described in previous thread), GRPN can generate 30 minute Flash sales derived from Ideel.com (GRPN's subsidiary that does Flash Sales). GRPN's Mobile app users would then be notified of said Flash sales via GRPN instant messages.

    - Offer discounts to vendors that display the 'Groupon' logo at the register or entry.

    - Work with Citi/Visa/Mastercard to create a Groupon Credit/Debit Card. Points and rewards can be worked out between banks and GRPN. i.e. Groupon Bucks for every $100 spent at retailers that do business with GRPN.

    GRPN's 'directives' as set by their CEO and BOD's prohibit any of said ideas from ever occurring. Why? They have no incentive to do so. They are all multi-millionaires.
    May 29, 2015. 02:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Groupon When It Hits $6 [View article]
    @author,
    nice article. However, I think GRPN's CEO and directors/execs need to be held accountable for Groupon's disastrous performance. I wrote an Insta Blog that talks about it.

    "GRPN's management team is helter skelter. They have no clue what they're trying to do (except to liquidate their shares).

    Examples:

    1.) They purchase Ticket Monster, citing the growth in the Asian markets. Then within a year they sell Ticket Monster, citing huge growth in the Asian markets!!! Seriously, you can't make that up.

    2.) They create some hair brain idea of deploying POS systems. These POS systems are simply iPads running GRPN software. Who cares!!! Yet GRPN is deploying thousands of iPads. Are these iPads being given away for free? What's the attach rate? What's the ROI? Surely giving 10,000 iPads away comes at a cost? Does GRPN ever expect to see any ROI? When GRPN management can't provide any ROI/financial metrics on the venture, you know they live in a land of helter skelter. Look for GRPN management to try to sell the 'POS system'.

    3.) They expanded into India. Now they are looking to partner or exit out of the region.

    4.) Since most of their ideas are already bad enough, they mimic Amazon by selling Goods.

    5.) Shielding Ideel's flash sales offerings from the average Groupon user.

    From a branding and corporate point of view, GRPN's directives are literally what I mentioned above... Helter Skelter.

    Now, you may ask... but Doggiecool, what would you do? Here's what I would do.

    1.) Tell all directors and execs not to sell any shares.

    2.) Work with financial parties to take partial ownership of Eric & Brads 25% ownership of GRPN.

    3.) Implement a RIF of about 20%. With a workforce of 12,000, that would equate to 2,400 employees, at an average salary plus benefits of $70K, it would save almost $168 Million annually.

    4.) Immediately restructure the Goods business to be DROP SHIP only!!!!! The Goods department should be strictly a logistics business, NOT a warehouse/distribution center.

    5.) Cross sell/promote Ideel directly within Groupon's mobile app. Most Groupon users have never visited GRPN's other website, Ideel.com Why? Maybe GRPN's management team lives in the world of Umpa Lumpas.
    Why on Earth GRPN does not have direct links and adds through its mobile App and its website is beyond me. It's a complete cluster f. You have over 100 million mobile app users!!! Yet you neglect to promote ideel's products to them. IDIOTS

    6.) Fire the execs who continue to delineate Ideel from Groupon's core customers base and from its Goods business.

    PAY ATTENTION ERIC LEFKOFSKI!!!!!

    7.) You have over 100 million mobile users and you refuse to let them communicate to each other!!!!!
    What is Facebook and Twitter trying to do? They are trying to get into retail and Local retail. How? Simply by placing buy buttons on their data streams. Fight FIRE with FIRE!!!!
    Allow Groupon users to send messages to fellow Groupon users. No, I'm not talking about sending a Like to Facebook, or a Tweet to Twitter. I'm saying allow Groupon users to send messages
    to fellow Groupon members. NOTE: GPRN has thousands of coders. Messaging can be done in less than 1 month. DO IT.

    Facebook and Twitter are trying to convert social users to buy things (a difficult proposition), Groupon simply needs to get its customers (buyers) to become Social!!!!! It can easily do this, by providing the ability to message each other. Initially, users would message each other as it relates to Local/Goods deals. Then in a few years, GRPN could then provide other
    services such as news, etc,. Which users would become more valuable? If the average user spend is about $150 for GRPN and only $10 for Facebook or Twitter, then the market will assign a higher market valuation to GRPN shares. Who knows, maybe this forces one of the big guns to acquire GRPN?

    CONCLUSION:
    Current management lives in a world of helter skelter. No incite. No initiative.

    GRPN needs to get their Mobile app to have the ability to send messages to other Groupon users. Otherwise, get Groupon to go 'social'"
    May 29, 2015. 11:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @sts,
    if MU returned half of their EPS back to shareholders in the form of a dividend, it would amount to $1.60 annually. At MU's current $28, that would amount to a 5.7% dividend. Some have MU doing over $4 next year. If so, they could afford a 7.1% dividend. Thus, if MU's share price stays compressed AND they decided to pay the dividend, it could literally double MU's share price. At the moment, it's not in the best interest of MU to do so... converts and buy backs are gearing up (as GAlan states below).
    May 28, 2015. 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @kj,
    well the Street apparently is gobbling up MU shares...

    "Perry purchased 5,730,000 shares of Micron Technology, a semiconductor producer in Boise, Idaho, for an average price of $29.89. The acquisition had a 5.12% impact on Perry's portfolio and made it the fifth-largest stake (by volume) in that portfolio.

    Micron has a market cap of $30.42 billion and an enterprise value of $33.48 billion. It has a P/E of 8.5, a Price/Book of 2.4 and a Price/Sales of 2.0.

    PRIMECAP Management (Trades, Portfolio), David Einhorn (Trades, Portfolio), Andreas Halvorsen (Trades, Portfolio), Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio), Donald Smith (Trades, Portfolio), Lee Ainslie (Trades, Portfolio), David Tepper (Trades, Portfolio), Joel Greenblatt (Trades, Portfolio), First Eagle Investment (Trades, Portfolio), Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio), Louis Moore Bacon (Trades, Portfolio), Whitney Tilson (Trades, Portfolio), Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio), RS Investment Management (Trades, Portfolio), David Dreman (Trades, Portfolio), Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio), Scott Black (Trades, Portfolio) and Julian Robertson (Trades, Portfolio) have shares of Micron Technology in their portfolios."
    May 28, 2015. 12:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @Ben,
    can you explain what its supposed to explain?

    according to your post, MU's ROI is almost twice that of average S&P500 company (19.79 vs. 11.11). Thus, MU's return on investment should cause the normal person to drool over MU's shares. Is this correct?

    thanks
    May 28, 2015. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @exper,
    everyone always says low margins and competition haunt MU....

    I'm all for low margins and competition if it means clocking in $3.25 in annual EPS. Heck next year, MU might do $4 in EPS. MU, a company with monstrous cash flows and huge EPS is trading at gutter level prices. I know through experience, that its current share price will not last. If it stays depressed, either of the following will occur...

    - The share price goes up
    - They get bought out
    - They get taken private

    take it to the bank
    May 28, 2015. 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @Mike,

    "It would have been a much easier/clearer comparison if you would have posted forward PE's for each company to support your hypothesis."

    I don't like to project into the future when making valuation comparisons, as the past is written in stone (MU did $3.25 EPS, while BRCM did $1.25 EPS). Slap on your standard S&P PE of 16 and we see MU should trade at $52, while BRCM should trade at $20.

    "I'm not saying Micron isn't a dirt cheap stock. I own some shares indirectly. But I think it is somewhat easy to understand why they trade at a discount to their peers. They are a commodity chip stock, face a lot of intense competition which can put a lot of pressure on their margins."

    BRCM and MU are both commodity chip stocks. However, the consolidation that has occurred in the DRAM and NAND industry alleviates some of the 'fierce' competition that MU has.There's only 3-4 competitors in each field. On the other hand BRCM faces a lot more competition. Their 'technology' is based on protocol. Protocols change faster than Moore's law. Thus, pressure on margins are fierce for BRCM as there are always new entrants into their market space.

    "Other stocks in the sector have bigger perceived moats built around their business, merger/takeover speculation or competitive advantage over their peers."

    I don't know of any company that has a bigger moat than MU (NAND and DRAM sector). MU's products are in every electronic device. The same cannot be said of BRCM.

    "The market also expects them to have higher future growth going forward."

    Both MU and BRCM are plays in the future of IOTA and more importantly the cloud. Cloud based storage growth is humungous. MU is just starting its foray into the data center with SSD's. For upside, I see MU having a far brighter future than BRCM. This morning, Cramer tried to justify the BRCM/AVAGO deal, by linking them to APPL and the iPhone. Well, I think Cramer needs to wake up and understand that MU sells massive amounts of DRAM and NAND to make those iPhones.

    "In the case of Broadcom the forward P/E is about 2x that of Micron."

    We agree on something.

    "But there also wasn't a bunch of speculation on a buyout on the horizon for Micron built into their price either. "

    Here's a rumor. If MU's share price doesn't appreciate considerably from these levels during the next 6 months, they will be taken private or merge with one of the drive companies.
    May 28, 2015. 11:22 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @Mike,
    Sorry if my previous posts may have offended you, however, I Almost forgot to say...
    Welcome to SA!!!
    Good luck on your investing
    May 27, 2015. 05:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @mike,
    "Would you be happier if BRCM did a 10 for 1 split bringing the share price down to $5.60? "

    so then BRCM's EPS would shrink to $0.125 or 12.5 cents per share. At 12.5 cents per share, applying a PE of 20, BRCM would then be valued at $2.50. Or otherwise, at $5.60 it's STILL a stuck pig. Way, way over valued. Unless, you feel a PE of 52 is value (BRCM's current PE) and a PE of 8 isn't (current MU PE).
    May 27, 2015. 05:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    @Mike,
    I really don't want to call you an idiot, but since it's your first post on SA... let me explain it to you...

    I compared the $56 share price of BRCM to the $28 share price of MU AND SUPPORTED that comparison via total revenues and EPS.

    You do realize knowing EPS and revenues, one can conclude relative valuations? Don't you?

    As it stands right now, BRCM is a stuck pig. Otherwise, it's way, way over valued relative to MU. How can I make that statement? Well MU does almost 3 times more in annual earnings per share. It also does almost 2 times in annual revenues. Yet the market places a higher valuation on BRCM ($34B) than MU ($30B).

    In conclusion, your post was not just pointless, it was worthless.
    May 27, 2015. 05:01 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chip stocks rally following Broadcom/Avago report [View news story]
    let's see...

    BRCM did $1.25 in annual EPS and around $8.5B in revenues

    MU did $3.25 in annual EPS and around $17B in revenues

    BRCM trades at $56
    MU trades at $28

    Yep, that sounds logical... NOT!

    Wow! MU being treated like a flea with leprosy... and to think MU will soon be doing $4 in EPS. How dumb is dumb?
    May 27, 2015. 03:28 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Will Live To Fight Another Battle [View article]
    @fib,
    ooooh? reeeeaaally? [in Jim Carey inflection]

    Sure, Goldman Sachs and all the other i-Banks have hundreds of analysts that don't trade... however, just over the cubicle walls, they have hundreds of traders that make a mint on trading. Now I know you might be thinking... isn't that against the law? Nope! However, it does violate a regulation of the big bad enforcer (aka SEC)... and on occasion, traders get the big bad slap on the wrist (just look at the promotions, I mean stern lectures those traders got when they rigged the FX markets via LIBOR fixing - A trillion dollar market, who cares about a few billion between friends???).

    Also, I doubt they would do it again, as they did a double pinky swear to the SEC
    May 26, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SK Hynix Q1 Results Are Ominous For Micron [View article]
    @kob,
    the real reason behind lagging PE...
    MU NEVER RELEASES EPS GUIDANCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...

    How can you realistically expect a fair PE if MU's own CFO/CEO will not provide EPS guidance?

    Every profitable high tech company offers EPS guidance. Why in hell does MU's management feel its special? I have commented on this before and have taken flack from it. But I'll say it again. MU needs to start talking WallStreet talk. Without it, know one can UNDERSTAND them. Especially investors.
    May 22, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Hold Your Breath With J.C. Penney [View article]
    @author,
    "Even after closing 80+ stores, Penney is still only reporting gross margins that are half of what the company was doing before the recession."

    Just curious, were you alive during the last recession?
    May 20, 2015. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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