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doggiecool

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  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    @Growlzler & Bruce,
    Bingo squared
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    @david,
    chip making is different than disc making.
    The machines in a Fab literally need to be replaced when going to a new technology (correct me if I'm wrong). The machines in a drive factory simply need to be tweaked. The proof of this, is to simply look at cap-ex spending of both industries.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    @Russ,
    2 items...

    1.) Let's imagine that in 3 years the NAND industry was able to meet 100% of the entire storage requirements of the planet. Now, as I have previously stated, human behavior drives storage requirements. Currently storage requirements are doubling every 2 years. Thus, can you under any circumstances image how INTC/Samsung/MU are going to double capacity every two years? If they aren't doubling the number of facilities every 2 years, then they will have to double 'technology' advancements every 2 years. Does this adhere to Moore's law? How do I envision the next 5-10 years? It will be a free for all. Only the largest of largest companies will survive. These companies will be focused on one technology only... storage. Companies that take their eye's off the road, will be road kill.

    2.) Imagine that everything you say does come true. SSD's for $0.02 per GB. What's in it for investors? The easiest way to determine that, is to look to the past...

    - At $0.02 per GB, the SSD replaces another black box (an HDD). They do the exact same thing, provide storage. EVERYONE concedes that an HDD is a commodity. Thus, an SSD will become a commodity. It will eventually have the same use (PC, datacenters, servers, etc). It will eventually have the same cost envelope. So now let's go back and see how historically, investors have valued storage 'brick' manufacturers (prior to consolidation).

    - they historically traded between 0.5 and 1 times sales
    - they historically lost money, due to brutal price wars
    - they historically had massive cap-ex and R&D wars. Chasing areal density.
    - when they had profits, they traded between 4 and 8 times earnings

    So when reality sets in, the new 'storage' companies will be trading around 1 times sales amidst continual brutal price wars. Who will be the new storage companies? Anyone's guess. I would urge INTC to focus on expertise and IP. License it to the world. Stay out of the commodity nature of storage.
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Extreme Undervaluation And Massive Growth Potential [View article]
    @sky
    the 1000% dollar question is the old supply and demand equation...

    I posted this on an INTC thread on SA...

    http://zd.net/1BYqKmk


    "The data explosion: In December 2012, IDC and EMC estimated the size of the digital universe (that is, all the digital data created, replicated and consumed in that year) to be 2,837 exabytes (EB) and forecast this to grow to 40,000EB by 2020 — a doubling time of roughly two years. One exabyte equals a thousand petabytes (PB), or a million terabytes (TB), or a billion gigabytes (GB). So by 2020, according to IDC and EMC, the digital universe will amount to over 5,200GB per person on the planet.


    This sort of data growth clearly requires heroic amounts of storage to keep it available for as long as it's required, and to archive much of it thereafter. Accordingly, IDC estimates that annual worldwide shipments of 'capacity optimized' storage systems will rise from around 22,000PB in 2013 to just under 90,000PB in 2016"


    So, the million dollar question is this?
    If the worlds raw data requirements are growing at such an astonishing rate... how come the NAND manufacturers aren't building DOZENS of new fabs ASAP? As it's quite apparent, the world's data growth is easily outstripping the supply side of the equation.
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:02 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    OK kids,
    I'm going to throw a bucket of water on everyone :)

    http://zd.net/1BYqKmk

    "The data explosion: In December 2012, IDC and EMC estimated the size of the digital universe (that is, all the digital data created, replicated and consumed in that year) to be 2,837 exabytes (EB) and forecast this to grow to 40,000EB by 2020 — a doubling time of roughly two years. One exabyte equals a thousand petabytes (PB), or a million terabytes (TB), or a billion gigabytes (GB). So by 2020, according to IDC and EMC, the digital universe will amount to over 5,200GB per person on the planet.

    This sort of data growth clearly requires heroic amounts of storage to keep it available for as long as it's required, and to archive much of it thereafter. Accordingly, IDC estimates that annual worldwide shipments of 'capacity optimized' storage systems will rise from around 22,000PB in 2013 to just under 90,000PB in 2016"

    So, the million dollar question is this?
    If the worlds raw data requirements are growing at such an astonishing rate... how come the NAND manufacturers aren't building DOZENS of new fabs ASAP? As it's quite apparent, the world's data growth is easily outstripping the supply side of the equation.

    Also, the author provides INTC numbers for 3 years out. No where in his numbers do we account for the doubling of the worlds storage needs every 2 years.

    As it stands right now, there are only a hand full of companies that can provide the storage to meet SOME of that growth... the hard drive companies.

    p.s.
    Can I assume everyone that agrees with the author is also short the drive companies? I mean, it's a slam dunk. Right?
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's Chip Expansion Antagonistic For Micron? Wall Street, 'The Crowd' At Odds [View article]
    @myself & folks,
    It's official... the route is on! US crude just broke $56 per barrel. from June to today, it has fallen from $115 to $56. WOW!

    Also,
    - the spread between US crude and Brent is at a whopping $5. This disparity is a 'tell'. Speculators trying to make quick knee jerk wagers.
    - UAE just hinted no emergency meeting, even if oil breaks $40 per barrel.
    - If the price per barrel remains at $60 per barrel, Russia's economy for 2015 will contract by a whopping 4.5% (sheeesh, just think what happens if it does hit $40 per barrel? )

    If a Russian contagion breaks out, look for Europe to re-enter a deep recession. followed by Asia.

    As for US investors, better pray that Goldman/Citi/etc have placed appropriate hedges... because if they didn't, US stock exchanges will collapse.... just like it did a few years ago.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Reasons You Should Consider J.C. Penney Now [View article]
    @Scott,
    I don't understand why anyone would try to squeeze lemon out of a rock.
    With JCP at $6, it has more of a statistical probability to get to $10 than get to $5.

    So my question to you is this... Why try to make 15% more on your investment, when you cover, go long and make significantly more on your investment?
    Dec 9, 2014. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Inevitability [View article]
    @Mark
    I think the same thing can be said of IBM
    What do they do? Besides leach of off government grants and publish articles cited by the media/academia?

    When's the last time you walked into Best Buy and saw ANYTHING being sold by IBM? When's the last time IBM sold a laptop/PC? Majority of data centers don't even use IBM 'mainframes', etc,. Don't even bring up Lotus Notes? Really, is that what IBM is about?

    Seriously, IBM has almost $50 billion in debt and only $10 billion in cash. Why are they not filing for bankruptcy? They leach so much from tax payers, its not even funny. It would not surprise me to see them disappear with in the decade.

    In conclusion, Amazon is gold compared to IBM :)
    Dec 9, 2014. 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Inevitability [View article]
    @bruce,
    Remember, the best of the best only let others see 'a tell' when they want it to be seen. It's a trap game. A game that Goldman and others are experts at.

    p.s.
    The key to understanding my bio... I precisely placed the "Never believe anything I say" immediately AFTER the sentence I SAY "I'm an idiot"
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Reasons You Should Consider J.C. Penney Now [View article]
    @Fast,
    nothing long term on JCP. Take the money and run if you can. Typically try to get a 5-10% gain per trade.
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Reasons You Should Consider J.C. Penney Now [View article]
    Getting ready to pound the freak out of some JCP shares.
    Have a feeling they want this in the $5.75-$6 range... put phasers on KILL.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Inevitability [View article]
    @trade,
    correct. Most people don't even realize what AWS is.
    fyi,
    my company uses AWS for practically all of our online presence (secure website pages, virtual servers, AV streaming, geo-location, SQL/Oracle databases, backups and maintenance).
    What used to require an IT group of a dozen people, can now be done with 1-3 skilled employees.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Inevitability [View article]
    I'll assume you didn't take your own advice and short the drive companies over the years?

    Oh, to answer your question... I'm financially independent and a CEO of my own tech start up.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Inevitability [View article]
    @trade,
    Wrong. Groupon is a billion dollar tech company, that has an annual revenue growth rate of 25-28%
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Inevitability [View article]
    @Don,
    " both something I've contended for some time to the wrath of others who do not understand the logical advances in technology coming. "

    would that understanding have occurred since 5 years ago?
    would that same understanding have made you lose the majority of your portfolio?
    during that period of understanding, the drive stocks have gone up by 5X

    I'm wondering if we are going to arrive at another point of understanding?

    good luck
    Dec 3, 2014. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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