I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.
Retired businessman former Mortgage Banker now individual investor who does the due diligence himself. Educated in field of Finance and school of hard knocks. Enjoy bantering with other investors and sharing insights. For relaxation I enjoy being a gym rat.
SM in OR from MBTA Red Line Kendall Station.
Stay at home Pops to special needs son & gifted daughter.
I invest when I see opportunities present themselves. Mostly long, some short term trading. I can go a month with no trades and then do 40 in a week. Plain vanilla calls and puts in options and LEAPS.
Company President, publisher of online workplace training. Over the past 40 have headed a CPA firm, founded an early-tech business services enterprise, acquired and ran a software company, and founded my current business in the Software as a Service space.
I love tech, and I'm usually overweight in tech stocks. I frequently take options positions, again usually in tech stocks. I need to stay abreast of technology for my business so I'm comfortable with my lack of portfolio diversification; maybe a little too comfortable.
I have 3 kids under 10. We live debt free, own 2 used cars paid with cash and rent for $600/mo. I was tired of watching our Roth IRAs grow by %10 in 10 years in loaded mutual funds, while the S&P500 beat our Roths easily. With the help of Seeking Alpha authors I started buying stocks about 10 months ago. Up about %50 over all (+/- %10 in a given week due to high beta small cap growth stocks) Very excited about the opportunities ahead. So far I have done very well at picking stocks and timing my buy-ins. I need to learn when to sell. Any help or advice is welcome. I do this part time reading a few hours in the evening and on my phone at work. Thinking about doing this full-time.
I am an adjunct faculty member at the R. H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland. With the help of my students I focus on fundamental equity research, reviewing over 120 companies a year. This site is used to publish a sampling of the research we produce. The goal is to give the students an opportunity to participate in the production of high quality research similar to what will be demanded from them in industry. The methodology we employ was developed at Johns Hopkins under the direction of Prof. Steve Hanke. This approach is centered around the proprietary concept of Sustainable Free Cash Flow and deviates significantly from many of the popular valuation protocols. Most significantly, it treats the subject company as an on-going system that the stock price tracks. As a result, the process focuses on historical distributions of parameters that in combination, produce various levels of cash flow per share. The stock price is then compared to this output in order to ascertain its probable direction.
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Martin Vlcek is a full-time investor and analyst who has been actively investing and managing money for more than 15 years. Martin has an Economics degree. Martin’s investment philosophy is to hold a truly diversified portfolio of investments across asset classes with low or negative correlation and a positive carry if possible. His primary stock investment focus is on undervalued small-cap stocks with favorable risk-to-reward ratio and upcoming catalysts.
Martin became a full-time investor and money manager after a 15-year career in online marketing where he was one of the pioneers of the pay-per-click search. Martin later held managerial positions at several Fortune 500 companies and also managed his own startup company.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Martin is not a Registered Investment Advisor, Broker/Dealer, Securities Broker or Financial Planner. The Information in his articles, his comment and his premium subscription service on SeekingAlpha.com or elsewhere is provided for information purposes only. The Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice, is general in nature and not specific to any individual. Before using Martin's information to make an investment decision, you should seek the advice of a qualified and registered securities professional and undertake your own due diligence. None of the information provided by Martin is intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund. Martin is not responsible for any investment decision made by you. You are responsible for your own investment research and investment decisions.
Electrical Engineer and private investor. I reside in the heart of Miyazaki, Nippon (Japan) about half time, and in my 727 home in Oregon, America, the other half (AirplaneHome.com, HikoukiIe.com, and AirplaneHome.com/Images/CoyMediaPagesCatalog.html). I'm 66 years of age (as of 2016).
I seem to be chronically incapable of conveying concepts concisely. For those who suffer through my rambling, redundant, and serpentine rhetoric, my sincere apologies. I do perceive that my composition desperately needs to be more efficient, so I'll try to make it so.
I'm also incompetent in most facets of the technology areas I invest in. I'm a good circuit design engineer, but I know precious little about integrated circuit fabrication technology and many other specialities. So I depend upon others, mostly here on Seeking Alpha, who have direct experience in areas where I have little or none. The bread which appears on my table (and the jetliner which resides in my yard) arrived largely on the shoulders of those who contribute here and others from past times, and I'm genuinely grateful for their energetic and community minded generosity.
In an effort to improve perspective, I try to keep two key long term cyber system goals in mind as I try to judge whether a firm possesses a clear vision of the future. The first is the Smoking Hairy Golf Ball, an idealized liquid helium cooled semiconductor sphere with wire connections on its surface, envisioned long ago as the final stage of evolution for maximum performance solid state electronics systems. The second, and most important, is a HAL-9000 algorithm, that is, conscious life creating software. Setting aside considerations of whether it's wise to pursue that second goal, firms which steer themselves toward either or both of these goals, in the context of developing their more ordinary products, are, in my view, likely to be lucrative. And for the record, I suspect a HAL-9000 algorithm will prove to be wonderfully positive for humanity. If we develop and manage the technology wisely and compassionately...
In my view some firms are moving, step by tiny step, toward one or both of these milestones.
I'm eager to hear constructive and civil criticism, so please don't hesitate to offer your suggestions.
Itsu made mo, genki de ite kudasai (Be healthy and, by implication, happy forever please), Bruce