Jrbarnes

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

Geometric progressions work both ways. Per the IEA, the worldwide depletion rate is 6.7%. That means that the world's current production will fall in half in 10.48 years, lessened only by that which is added. It has been over 20 years since we have found as much oil in a year as we have used. As the population expands, and as LDCs use more oil, and as OPEC countries continue to use more and more of their own oil each year, the demand for oil increases while the oil supply available outside of OPEC countries continue to decrease. Oil production capacity has been flat for 5 years.

BP Strikes Black Gold: A Boon for Energy ETFs?

BP's find at 25k feet is hardly likely to be oil. At that depth, the termperature and pressure cook the hydocarbons into natural gas, not oil. BP carefull refer to BOE, or barrels of oil equivalent in their press release. Natural gas in in oversupply, and selling for $3 per mcf or less at the well head. It is hghly unlikely that wells like BP's can be affordably drilled and produced at these natural gas prices.

Can Big Oil Balance Shareholder Interest Against National Interest?

"Oil companies get leases to Federal lands for the purpose of exploration and development of new fields at a minimal cost" All Federal leases are acquired in an open auction. Leases in proven areas go for a lot of money. Offshore leases sell for tens of millions. Only leases in unexplored areas go for modest sums, but even those prices are are at market prices, or someone else would bid higher.

Big oil has failed miserably when it has tried to work in areas outside of producing and refining oil and gas. They do not have the technical expertise or experience or mindset. Examples - Exxon in office automation, in which they invested over a billion dollars to diversify. Mobil in the packaging business. Both investments failures. The money invested in alternative energy needs to be made by folks with the expertise and orientation and passion for it. Use Big Oil for what it is good at - fiinding a producing large multibillion dollar oil projects, refineries and petrochemical plants.

US Oil Companies Borrow A Page From OPEC's Playbook

Let's see, the Senate says it is going to take $29 billion out of the oil companies' pockets to use to subsidize the production of ethanol and biodiesel, and one wonders why the oil companies are reluctant to pony up a billion dollars or so per new refinery and fight nearly impossible to get around environmentalists and laws which enable them to stop the building of refineries essentially forever, to produce a product that is made from a substance that is currently producing at its peak level ever, to compete against something that is being subsidized with their money. Could that have an impact on their decision. The Senate Democrats can pass a tax, but they cannot outlaw intelligence any more than they seem to be able to exercise it for themselves.