Jet6330

A123 Increases IPO Price Range

John,

Thanks for the reply, I appreciate your extensive clarification into this topic and your stance regarding it. I hope that everyone reading this knows we are all in this together. The fact that we are debating this very topic gives me great hope for the future.

This has been enlightening, lets all keep the discussion flowing ... I am firmly of the opinoin (as I now know you are too) that we will have a energy storage mix rather than one single form of storage.

Good day and looking forward to the next topic of discussion.

A123 Increases IPO Price Range

How many commercially produced vehicles are currently on the road using Lithium Ion battery packs compared to that of Lead acid?

That in itself should indicate the demand imbalance between the two technologies. Agreed batteries are very material intensive but so too do the costs of said inputs decline with the systematic increase in the usage of these material inputs in the production process as well as the continued development in more efficient means to use them. Furthermore, one would not need a "resource fairy" as you so eloquently put, to reduce the cost of material inputs. As with any industry, technological advancements are to a large degree unaccounted for when factoring in future prices due to the uncertainty behind them. If the past is anything to go by, we should see a dramatic decline in input costs as demand for more efficient battery systems grows - when the electrification of vehicles actually happens!

John, it is great that you landed a large position in axion, a lead acid battery producer and have continued to load your portfolio with the industry leaders in this field. I feel your blog is rather bias towards this one form of energy storage technology. I feel you are trying to push the positive virtues of this technology to boost your own portfolio by creating a false sense of hope that this archaic form of battery technology is the future thereby increasing their respective share prices, as is the case with all analysts. While doing this you continually voice only the negative aspects of Lithium Ion. Hence the reason this is a blog and not a published journal!

As an Energy Economist I am compelled to look at all forms of energy storage, I do see long term use for lead acid batteries, I am certain of this! However, this technology will gradually become less and less prominent as more efficient, lighter and soon to be more cost effective on a per KWh basis, technologies take centre stage. Just as coal has and will always play a part as a source energy however, as wind, geothermal and solar (amongst others) become more prominent coal will begin to decrease in terms of its % share of total energy supply. No hard feelings John, I am not here to personally offend you or the like. I am simply here to advise you and everyone else that one cannot put all their eggs in one basket (as they say) in terms of energy supply and storage as well as one should always remain objective and fair towards all technologies, even those in their infant stages of development and use. Trust me $7 billion in sales is a drop in the ocean compared to what they and others will achieve once Lithium battery packs are used in vehicles! Good day.

A123 Increases IPO Price Range

Blogs like this fascinate me, seven words in two separate phrases:

Economies of scale
Long term technological development

Just as in the day many pundits thought the computer would be the size of rooms forever (1970's) and those that thought the telephone would never catch on. So too we have those that undermine our future technologies that we know will become the norm. I am sure at one point in time, people believed Lead-acid batteries would never be used due to their 'sophisticated' technology.

It would be nice to read something that is a little less bias towards an aging technology from yester-year. I know lithium is not the be all and end all of powering our cars of tomorrow, but just as Lead-acid batteries were, they will be an important step to the technology of tomorrow. Rather than continue to undermine it at every turn, embrace it and hope that we will all survive to see these wonders of the future.

A Smart Electricity Solution for Transportation

Please refer to EPRI's analytical study showing that even if 100% of the entire 298 million vehicle fleet in the USA were to be converted to plug-in hybrids, the TOTAL electrical increase in demand would be in the region of 10%. Please get your facts straight before asserting facts like that.

Furthermore, the margin reserve and spinning reserves in the USA are on average around the 15% mark, further showing that even if every single car were to plug in at the same time during PEAK load periods, we would not suffer any such black out. It is very annoying when people such as yourself try make a point but fail to do the necessary research. You are not doing anyone any justice, unless you by any chance work for the oil industry, then it all makes sense why you would be trying to mis-inform the general population with your unjustified claims.