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  • Homebuilding stocks have been on a tear now for over a year now, with leaders like KB Home (KBH), PulteGroup (PHM), Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL) all racking up solid gains. With such a big move already underway in the sector, today's $200M IPO announcement by William Lyon Homes (WLH), along with the $602M Taylor Morrison (TMHC) IPO due out later this week, may be viewed by some contrarians as a sign of a top in the market. [View news story]
    Taylor Morrison IPO only the 2nd IPO in almost A DECADE. (Last big one was Dec. 2004: Comtock IPO - down 85% since today.(
    http://bit.ly/10Skjg8

    Is this a sign the US housing market is definitely back?
    Apr 10 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Dell's LBO: Microsoft (MSFT) will provide a $2B loan rather than an equity investment, as had been reported. Michael Dell will remain chairman/CEO. The deal is expected to close before the end of the July quarter. Dell will have a 45-day "go-shop" period to solicit alternate bids; a $180M termination fee applies. Look for disgruntled shareholders to challenge the deal, particularly given Michael Dell's conflict of interest. But finding a higher bid could be easier said than done. DELL halted. (PR[View news story]
    The Top 10 Largest Private Equity Deals of 2012 do confirm that the multi-billion dollar LBO - and the usage of significant leverage - are definitely back. For now:
    http://bit.ly/WlGvOb

    But none of the Top 10 largest deals last year even came close to $20 Billion-plus deal size. That sized private equity deal like the Dell LBO will almost certainly continue to be a rarity for the foreseeable future.
    Feb 6 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Leaves The Consumer Networking Market After Selling Linksys Brand To Belkin [View article]
    PrivCo pegs the purchase price for Linksys sale by Cisco at $275 Million in cash. Which makes sense given Cisco acquired Linksys for $500 Million but sales have been declining since:

    http://bit.ly/14fF0qb

    And apparently BELKIN's Founder is now a billionaire. A self-made billionaire. Good for him, impressive!
    Jan 26 07:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SeaWorld Entertainment: An Early Look At 2013 IPO [View article]
    FYI - The initial analysis of the SeaWorld IPO from IPO research firm PrivCo:

    SEAWORLD IPO ANALYSIS: PRIVCO (Dec. 27, 2012):

    SeaWorld Entertainment pulled in $1.33 billion in revenues in 2011, however, it is a low margin business (with last year's net income margin roughly 1%), and an economically cyclical business.

    SEAWORLD IPO Offering Information: PrivCo:

    * Proposed Ticker: SEAS (Exchange TBD)

    * Offering Amount: $100 Million (Filing amount; amount sought rumored to be in $500-600 Million range)

    * Use of Funds: Repayment of debt, making cash payments to private equity owners Blackstone Group


    SeaWorld Financial Information:

    * Revenue (Year end December 31): $1.33B (2011), $1.20B (2010)

    * TTM Revenue (Sept. 30, 2012): $1.41B

    * 1 Year Revenue Growth: 11.3% (2010-2011)

    * Profit/Loss: $19.1M (2011), -$45.5M (2010)

    * Total Debt: $1.42B (As of September 30, 2012)

    (Source: PrivCo: Private Company Financial Intelligence)

    http://bit.ly/Vlr6zS
    Dec 28 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Trading Up 50% On Day Of IPO; Rive, Musk Comment [View article]
    FYI - Analysis on SOLARCITY's IPO and Today's 47% Pop from IPO Research Firm PRIVCO:

    SOLARCITY IPO Pops 47% To $11.79 In Today's Debut, After Dramatic Price Cut To $8 From $13-$15 Initial Range; PBF Energy Inc. Also Goes Public

    Slashed Valuation, Reduced Dollars Raised, As Well As Differentiated Installation & Leasing Model Allowed SolarCity's IPO To Price Where Other Clean-tech Deals Failed
    December 13, 2012 4:00 pm EST -SolarCity Corporation's (NASDAQ: $SCTY) stock price surged in its first day of trading, closing at $11.79, up 47% over its IPO price of $8 (saw highs of $12.7). This successful first day of trading is a validation of investor interest in SolarCity, which experienced a rocky week on its way to today's NASDAQ IPO. Also going public today is petroleum refiner PBF Energy, Inc. (NYSE: $PBF).

    Today's IPO pop for SolarCity could be attributed to the company and underwriters' valuation cut, in addition to the reduced offering size which manufactured scarcity. Only a very small percentage of SolarCity was sold in today's $92 million offering. Moreover, out of that amount, Elon Musk personally invested $15 million, with other existing investors also committing several million dollars in the IPO. As a result of these pre-commitments, the net IPO size was in fact only around $70 million. This alone contributed to the pop in price - though the 47% pop still deserves kudos to the company and the underwriters in getting the deal done in a touch clean-tech IPO market. Also, they were able to push the IPO through - with some difficulty - under intense time pressure given this is the last pre-Holiday IPO week for the year.

    PrivCo CEO Sam Hamadeh stated:"Investors were able to ultimately realize that SolarCity's business model is differentiated from other clean-tech companies like Solyndra who were manufacturers of solar panels and were harmed most by price drops for solar panels (solar panel prices have dropped 33% since January 2012). Investors came to understand and appreciate SolarCity's leasing/financing and installation model, and were able to differentiate it from pure-play solar companies that have under-performed in the markets. SolarCity's eventual successful pricing and debut is a modest boost for the clean-tech venture capital and IPO market, and shows future companies that success can be had in clean-tech (particularly for private clean-tech companies with business models that aren't exposed to the volatile global market prices for solar panels and other materials)."

    Analysis with links to full IPO Report on SOLARCITY:
    http://bit.ly/QXEdXt

    http://bit.ly/UEnbeX
    Dec 13 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: SolarCity [View article]
    Agree with much of above article.

    FYI - Analysis of SolarCity ($SCTY) IPO from private company / IPO data firm PrivCo - Strengths and Risks:

    IPO Strengths
    SolarCity's revenue is growing at strong pace, despite being in a tough sector where many peers have gone under
    Attracted brand name institutional customers like Wal-Mart & Home Depot
    U.S. solar panel installations expected to jump 70% in 2012
    SolarCity installs, leases and retails solar panels, but doesn’t make them – current pricing softness in industry actually helps SolarCity increase margins
    Backers of SolarCity include Elon Musk (31.9% share); Draper Fisher Jurvetson (26.3%); DBL Investors (7.4%); Lyndon Rive (7%)
    Fundraising success: over $1.5 billion in 23 funds
    30% federal tax credit cash grant allowed investors to take credit in form of cash
    SolarCity is the 1st clean energy IPO since Enphase (March 2012)
    IPO Risks

    Alternative energy market has a terrible track record, and is not favored by investors (many planned clean tech IPOs have been withdrawn or postponed - due to lack of investor interest and inability to meet planned IPO targets): BrightSource Energy Inc., Enerkem, Luca Technologies, Elevance Renewable Sciences, Genomatica, Coskata, Fallbrook Technologies, Solyndra, and Smith Electric Vehicles
    SolarCity has high Cost of Sales (90% of customers lease, so SolarCity shoulders the costs) – need heavy funding to survive
    SolarCity is currently under investigation by the Treasury Dept. & IRS for fraud relating to cash grants
    The solar industry as a whole is seeing mounting supply chain pressures as Chinese solar panel manufacturing companies are facing huge debt loads and going out of business

    http://bit.ly/TTgnMX-
    Dec 11 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why The Sun Won't Shine On SolarCity's IPO [View article]
    Bad sign for SolarCity's IPO, and for cleantech IPOs generally now. See PrivCo confirming SolarCity IPO postponed, last minute price cut to $10 (from $13-$15 original range) was even attempted to several prospective IPO investors earlier today and still couldn't fill its order book: http://bit.ly/UzjN2N
    Dec 11 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Diversification Is Key To Growth [View article]
    StarWars Film Studio LUCASFILM Acquired By DISNEY For $4.05B, 100% Owner George Lucas Gets $4 Billion+, Now Non-Paper Billionaire, Star Wars 7th Film To Be Released In 2015

    LUCASFILM- the privately-held film studio giant behind Star Wars and Indiana Jones film franchises as well as market leading special effects provider Industrial Light & Magic -has just agreed to be acquired by Disney ($DIS) in a massive $4.05 cash and stock acquisition. The deal makes Lucas officially a non-paper (cash) billionaire. Related news: Star Wars Episode 7 to be released in 2015. George Lucas's consent to allow the final 3 Star Wars Films to be made (even after his death) added $1.1 Billion to the Lucasfilm LItd. acquisition price per PrivCo (private company financial data site):

    http://bit.ly/TXuK4c
    Oct 31 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Analyst Downgrade Walt Disney's Future Looks Bright [View article]
    StarWars Film Studio LUCASFILM Acquired By DISNEY For $4.05B, 100% Owner George Lucas Gets $4 Billion+, Now Non-Paper Billionaire, Star Wars 7th Film To Be Released In 2015

    LUCASFILM- the privately-held film studio giant behind Star Wars and Indiana Jones film franchises as well as market leading special effects provider Industrial Light & Magic -has just agreed to be acquired by Disney ($DIS) in a massive $4.05 cash and stock acquisition. The deal makes Lucas officially a non-paper (cash) billionaire. Related news: Star Wars Episode 7 to be released in 2015. George Lucas's consent to allow the final 3 Star Wars Films to be made (even after his death) added $1.1 Billion to the Lucasfilm LItd. acquisition price per PrivCo (private company financial data site):

    http://bit.ly/TXuK4c

    Good purchase for $DIS?
    Oct 31 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GSV Capital: Undervalued, Unloved And A Long-Term Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I agree that GSV is probably undervalued now, though you still need to assign a value to its holdings and sum up the parts.

    One new worrisome holding is still privately-held Spotify.

    The full PrivCo report, which links to the full Spotify financials (which look pretty ugly):
    http://bit.ly/PYNSc9

    From the privco #s (now confirmed as "totally accurate" by spotify to CNET), Spotify is spending 98 cents of every dollar of revenue just to pay music royalties. You can't sustain a business spending 98 cents out of every dollar on "Cost of Goods Sold", leaving 2 cents on the dollar to cover ALL staffing, marketing, admin, tech, etc etc etc. It's called math. It doesn't work.
    Oct 5 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark Zuckerberg To Investors: Give Facebook 3 To 5 Years [View article]
    What this recent stock price performance confirms is that Facebook as a company has material risks that are not reflected in the valuation being asked for.

    Per valuation analysis from IPO research site PrivCo.com on May 15 pre-Facebook's IPO, Facebook is highly overvalued at any price above $25/share:

    PrivCo placed fair equity value for Facebook at just $24.60/share (rounded to $25/share), and that was in May based on conservative projections (by then standards) that Facebook is actually now MISSING.

    PrivCo valuation methodology and Facebook financial forecasts (slideshow):
    http://bit.ly/OA6u1b

    While early private investors in Facebook made out well, the risk-reward on Facebook probably isn't there for new investors entering above that point.
    Sep 12 10:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Recent Drop Offers Excellent Opportunity For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    FYI excellent points on Starbucks Financial Benefit from Today's Partnership with Mobile Payments Provider SQUARE is potentially HUGE from reduction in "customer walk-outs" during peak times by bringing payments mobile to "Front of the Counter"
    Source: PrivCo.com:
    http://bit.ly/Qg7pTC

    Breaking News: SQUARE's Starbucks Deal Will Add $120 Million In Annual Revenue For SQUARE Next Year, Boost SQUARE's Valuation By $2.2 Billion By Year-End 2013 To $5.5 Billion; STARBUCKS Rollout Positions SQUARE As Solution To Retailers Vexing "Peak Hours Capacity" Problem; "Today Is The Day Mobile Payments Went Mainstream"
    Key Benefit to Starbucks From Square Deal: Solve Wait Times and Lost Customers During Peak Hours
    National Rollout Is Game-Changer For Square And Mobile Payments
    $5.5B 2013 valuation is 243% increase over July 2012 funding round, huge home run for backers Khosla Ventures, Sequoia Capital, KPCB, and Rizvi Traverse


    August 8, 4:50 pm EST – Square's (PrivCo Private Company Ticker: SQUAREP) latest partnership with Starbucks has broad implications beyond a simple $25 Million investment and Starbucks' switch of its credit card processor, PrivCo research concludes. PrivCo also concludes the deal brings in an estimated $120 Million in annual revenue to Square's top-line for 2013, which will boost Square's current $3.225 Billion valuation to $5.5 Billion by the end of 2013. Starbucks' partnership helps the coffee chain solve one of its most vexing problems: how to solve its "peak hours capacity" problems during which customers walk away from long lines and wait times by accepting payments well before reaching the counter. According to a PrivCo source familiar with Starbucks' thinking, this was the key motivating factor for Starbucks. And more broadly, from ve nture capital investors and mobile startups to large financial institutions, mobile-payments have instantly gone from a niche novelty to a mainstream payment option with far-reaching implications, disrupting both local retailing and payments business models forever.

    PrivCo breaks down the momentous nature of this day's far-reaching deal between Square and Starbucks:

    What's In It For Starbucks:
    Solving peak-time capacity problems: Starbucks' adoption of Square is not motivated by saving money (in terms of processing fees, as Square will be charging a 2.05% processing fee, about what Starbucks pays now all-in including swipe fees). Instead, Starbucks sees Square as a tool to get payments in front of the counter. Starbucks recognizes Square as a solution for its peak hour capacity question, where long lines can turn away customers. Although this will not be implemented over night (devices needs to be distributed, tested, observed), as CEO Schultz acknowledged today, Starbucks is aiming to begin processing transactions in line as soon as 2013. Even a modest improvement in lost customer rates will have a materially positive impact on Starbucks and other retailers who will soon replicate and implement the technology.
    Investment: ​Starbucks hopes that their $25 Million investment will reap a 2X or 3X return. However, they stand to gain the most by solving their peak hour capacity question.
    Aug 8 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far Can Facebook Fall? Another 50% [View article]
    What this recent stock price performance confirms is that Facebook as a company has material risks that are not reflected in the valuation being asked for.

    Per valuation analysis from IPO research site PrivCo.com on May 15 pre-Facebook's IPO, Facebook is highly overvalued at any price above $25/share:
    http://bit.ly/OA6w9m

    PrivCo places fair equity value for Facebook at just $24.60/share (rounded to $25/share), and that was in May based on conservative projections (by then standards) that Facebook is actually now MISSING.

    PrivCo valuation methodology and Facebook financial forecasts (slideshow):
    http://bit.ly/OA6u1b
    May 15, 2012)

    While early private investors in Facebook made out well, the risk-reward on Facebook probably isn't there for new investors entering above that point.
    Aug 4 01:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg Is Unfixable [View article]
    What this recent stock price performance confirms is that Facebook as a company has material risks that are not reflected in the valuation being asked for.

    Per valuation analysis from IPO research site PrivCo.com on May 15 pre-Facebook's IPO, Facebook is highly overvalued at any price above $25/share:
    http://bit.ly/OA6w9m

    PrivCo places fair equity value for Facebook at just $24.60/share (rounded to $25/share), and that was in May based on conservative projections (by then standards) that Facebook is actually now MISSING.

    PrivCo valuation methodology and Facebook financial forecasts (slideshow):
    http://bit.ly/OA6u1b

    While early private investors in Facebook made out well, the risk-reward on Facebook probably isn't there for new investors entering above that point.
    Aug 4 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg Is Unfixable [View article]
    What this recent stock price performance confirms is that Facebook as a company has material risks that are not reflected in the valuation being asked for.

    Per valuation analysis from IPO research site PrivCo.com on May 15 pre-Facebook's IPO, Facebook is highly overvalued at any price above $25/share:
    http://bit.ly/OA6w9m

    PrivCo places fair equity value for Facebook at just $24.60/share (rounded to $25/share), and that was in May based on conservative projections (by then standards) that Facebook is actually now MISSING.

    PrivCo valuation methodology and Facebook financial forecasts (slideshow):
    http://bit.ly/OA6u1b
    http://bit.ly/IxGFh1 (PrivCo Private Company Financial Report: Facebook, Inc.: May 17, 2012)

    While early private investors in Facebook made out well, the risk-reward on Facebook probably isn't there for new investors entering above that point.
    Aug 4 01:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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