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Mark Robertson is the founder of www.manifestinvesting.com. Manifest Investing features an e-newsletter focusing on successful long-term investing including web-based investment research and features for stock and fund screening. Other tools provide resources for portfolio design and management.... More
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Manifest Investing LLC
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Weekly Message: Expected Returns
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  • Discovering Opportunities: Pharma Pipelines

    Manifest Investing will run a two-part webcast on the drug approval process. Hosted by Hugh McManus, the presentation will focus on two drug applications awaiting approval by the Food and Drug Administration: Qnexa from Vivus, Inc. [NASDAQ:VVUS] and Lorqess from Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [NASDAQ:ARNA]. Each drug addresses the growing problem of obesity and weight management.

    The presentation will focus mainly on the drug approval process rather than on the companies themselves. Participants will be introduced to the FDA website and where to look for useful information; the approval process will be examined as well as other websites where useful information is often posted. Each presentation will last for an hour with a portion of the time of the end of answers and questions.

    There will be a follow up discussion at manifestinvesting.com.

    Register: https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/755219294

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 22 6:12 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Stryker (SYK): More Than Medical Devices. Better Lives.

    Stryker (SYK) reported fairly solid results this past week as earnings season unfolds. At Manifest Investing, we gauge the impact/influence of any results or shifts in consensus forecasts on long-term trends for growth, profitability or valuation.

    In the case of Stryker, we have a long-term:

    (1) Sales growth forecast of 7.6%

    (2) Net margin forecast of 17.9%

    (3) Projected average P/E of 15.0x

    This results in a 5-year EPS forecast of $5.76 and the 9.9% projected annualized price appreciation combines with a 0.8% yield to deliver a projected annual return (PAR) of 10.7%.

    Stryker's financial strength (A++) combines with high relative consistency in EPS trends, along with favorable competitive comparisons with peers and other medical device (orthopedic) companies to form an excellent quality rating.

    The following video provides a summary of stock study highlights.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TpVht63Ylk

    Comments (including suggestions for company studies) and questions welcome.

    Disclosure: I am long SYK.

    Apr 20 7:20 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Death & Taxes: Matthews (MATW) Analysis

    During our weekly updates, we bring companies to the attention of investors by focusing on above-average return candidates. In the wake of filing our tax returns, it seems fitting that funeral services and memorial leader Matthews (MATW) was among the companies of interest.

    MATW currently has a 3-5 year low annualized total return forecast of 17%. We believe that the low total return forecast from Value Line is a useful, representative and fairly reliable "second opinion" for seeking candidates for consideration.

    At Manifest Investing, we focus on three major analysis milestones while establishing a return forecast for any company:

    (1) Sales growth forecast

    (2) Profitability (projected % net margin)

    (3) Projected Average P/E

    In the case of MATW, we feel a sales growth forecast of 5-6% could combine with a projected net margin of 8% to deliver a 5-year EPS forecast of $3.77. Using a projected average P/E of 16x, the annualized price appreciation is ~14%. Combining a projected dividend yield of 1.0%, the projected annual return is ~15%.

    MATW has a financial strength rating of 87 (A++ = 100) and an excellent quality rating.

    The following video (8:42) provides a closer look at the fundamental analysis milestones and checks in on technical analysis highlights that suggest potential support levels in the $28-30 range and a relative strength index (RSI) of 42, suggesting a condition closer to over-sold (RSI<30).

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgIQaK8FPDo

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 19 9:28 PM | Link | Comment!
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