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Warderf

Warderf
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  • Micron To Benefit From Memory Shortages, Part III [View article]
    I don't think your comment on the bodyguards is acceptable, even in jest and definitley not constructive.
    Currecny movement - this is the reason they put in hedges.
    Apr 9, 2013. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron To Benefit From Memory Shortages, Part III [View article]
    My feeling and I have no information to back it up. The price increase in memory is due to taking off supply and dram and or switching to mobile dram.
    Late 2011 Samsung and I think Toshiba lowered production I think to stabalize prices. Others ramped production so take market share. Early 2012 Samsung and Toshiba increased production and hammered prices. Those two I believe will act as big business to maintain profitability and have the low costs of production.
    I hope the others will act the same. So there will be spare capacity available and I don't see any drivers that will increase demand substantially above production.
    If there is a shortage I expect it will be short lived.
    At current prices, if the takeover of Elpida by Micron goes through, which I expect. I believe that they will adjust production volume and size relatively slowly. I expect it will be the larger nodes will be taken offline and new equipment installed for cutting edge nodes.
    In time we could see a profitable industry, which means better multiples for Micron.
    I don't see any reason why we would get anything like 2000.
    Apr 5, 2013. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    Pricing impacts demand. When prices are low the manufacturers put in more memory per box. When prices move back up they will lower the memory per box. The trend is higher for more memory per box, but the desktop market is expected to shrink, but more tablets and laptops are expected to grow. Net demand is higher, I believe what is happening is that the supply demand has come more in line.
    If I remember correctly there was memory draw down in the back half of the year and now they are rebuilding inventory. I don't see demand growing really quickly. But new supply of dram I suspect is lower than demand.
    Mar 6, 2013. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    Insider buying is a better indicator. You buy it because think it's going up. There are a lot of reasons to sell.
    Mar 6, 2013. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    I don't know for sure. But if memory serves they tend to do one or the other not both. The complexity is not linear. So move to 300mm, then to smaller geometry.
    Mar 6, 2013. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    Sounds like you've never been bitten.
    As your portfolio grows I think you should consider diversifying such as a broad based low cost product.
    Mar 6, 2013. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    The trend is up. I'm still holding on.
    Mar 6, 2013. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    I didn't clarify that Toshiba only produces nand. So, I stand corrected. But as you say depending on market conditions MU can switch lines of production. But there is a time lag and a cost.
    But if/when they add capacity either through smaller geometries or additional fabs then you usually see prices crash. The question is do you wait for the new capacity to come online or do you sell ahead of the new capacity (and therefore prices fall)? Addition of new capacity tends to be very lumpy.
    Given the price move on MU there is concern out there of some kind and I expect it is a concern over cash requirements.
    Nand growth may slow as people may not upgrade their smart phones as quickly and that some phone makers are switching between nand or dram depending on pricing, which is a good feedback for price movement. Less volatility in earnings can result in better multiples.
    Don't get me wrong in the short term I'm pretty bullish on MU and am long. But q/q the average pricing for dram is good. But not stellar. In the current quarter is where you will see the full impact of the recent pricing. But keep in mind that dram as a % of their business is falling, before the Elpida acquisition.
    Elpida will need time to turn around. Yen appreciation is an additional risk.
    As for the recent movement of the Yen chances are the company already hedged, so the impact will be minimal.
    Mar 5, 2013. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    It still manufactures image sensors and they have an interest in it. But I believe they are doing it to raise cash.
    Mar 5, 2013. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    I think and maybe the market thinks that supply from Elpida, not sure if all the are all on 300mm, will shut in some production. So, the lower end production will be eliminated and then the company will use those resources to upgrade to the newest geometry, but not too fast. So supply will fall off, at the lower end. And if recent past actions by Samsung and Toshiba to act as an oligopoly then we can see more price stability if Hynix will also act accordingly we could have an industry that is more stable/profitable then Micron could be awarded a higher multiple.
    Mar 4, 2013. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    Wow Mike you have guts. Putting 50% of your money in one company. Looks like you've been doing well and the trade has definitely going you way recently. Looks like we should be heading higher given the price action on memory moreso for dram than nand.
    Mar 4, 2013. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    300mm refers just to the size of the wafer. has nothing to do with the node size (geometry size). Two different things. The good thing about the 300mm wafers is that they lower the cost per bit. Economies of scale.
    Mar 4, 2013. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    no it's not a material change. It is market conditions and up to you what you can figure out from public information.
    Mar 4, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: An Amazing Story Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes [View article]
    Not sure about this, but one thing that I think is holding the share price back is the cash needed to buy and update the company. Does that mean more dilution, sale of assets like the Aptina transaction recently.
    The fact that we've been here done that before. i.e. prices spike capex spikes and memory prices drop like a stone.
    I am long the stock, but $10 in pre-tax profit per share over the next year 4 quarters after the acquisition is reaching a little far.
    It will take time for Micron to raise enough cash to meet all their needs. Buying Elpida and capex to update old machinery.
    Mar 4, 2013. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: A Surprise Coming In March? [View article]
    I was wondering what your rationale for cogs declining to 1.5B. Last 8 quarters average cogs is about $1.8. Recent trend is lower, but how do we know it's not going to mean revert.
    Memory pricing has been trending higher, so on top line you're getting closer.
    Long MU as well. I don't know what the drivers for cogs is.
    I'm not sure that an eps beat will move the stock higher so much as the capex change (supply/demand dynamics = pricing).
    Feb 6, 2013. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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