Bobwins's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/89915/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/166403-first-majestic-the-first-of-many-majestic-quarters-to-come?source=feed#comment-714901 714901
That said, I still like the near term catalysts for First Majestic. They still need to work out the kinks and prove to the markets that La Encantada can produce up to capacity. Like all major projects, it has been delayed and has caused the company to repeatedly lower guidance for 2009. But once fully online by year end, it should move First Majestic into the 6 million oz/yr production range, a dramatic 50% increase from current levels and lower costs at the same time.

This is the catalyst that gives FR the advantage, in my opinion, over FVI. As FVI advances their new mine construction, they will have the same type of catalyst but the timeframe is out 12-18months. Until then, they will be profitably producing 1.6 m to 2 million oz.

I also hold CDE and SLW because they are big cap and get the institutional money whenever gold and silver are rising.

Long shot? REX.v. C$.15 Just raised 3 million and about to start drilling Coneto project in the same area as several big silver mines. Mgmt is from Orko, that JV'd their initial project to PAAS. ]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:08:05 -0400
That said, I still like the near term catalysts for First Majestic. They still need to work out the kinks and prove to the markets that La Encantada can produce up to capacity. Like all major projects, it has been delayed and has caused the company to repeatedly lower guidance for 2009. But once fully online by year end, it should move First Majestic into the 6 million oz/yr production range, a dramatic 50% increase from current levels and lower costs at the same time.

This is the catalyst that gives FR the advantage, in my opinion, over FVI. As FVI advances their new mine construction, they will have the same type of catalyst but the timeframe is out 12-18months. Until then, they will be profitably producing 1.6 m to 2 million oz.

I also hold CDE and SLW because they are big cap and get the institutional money whenever gold and silver are rising.

Long shot? REX.v. C$.15 Just raised 3 million and about to start drilling Coneto project in the same area as several big silver mines. Mgmt is from Orko, that JV'd their initial project to PAAS. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151805-some-junior-silver-miners-are-heavily-underpriced?source=feed#comment-606571 606571 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 10:42:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149747-apollo-gold-still-a-risky-proposition-for-most-blackmont?source=feed#comment-594959 594959
Company is certainly aware of the first debt repayment and did the recent PP to accelerate drilling near the 13 oz/tonne results at Grey Fox. Production cashflow should provide ample cash for debt repayment. Company has been in production for a couple years at their Montana base metal mine so has experienced production staff used to much higher production levels.

Apollo is very undervalued and should move beyond Blackmont target by yearend after proving they can produce at 1800tpd and then 2100 by year end. Bobwins]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 09:59:30 -0400
Company is certainly aware of the first debt repayment and did the recent PP to accelerate drilling near the 13 oz/tonne results at Grey Fox. Production cashflow should provide ample cash for debt repayment. Company has been in production for a couple years at their Montana base metal mine so has experienced production staff used to much higher production levels.

Apollo is very undervalued and should move beyond Blackmont target by yearend after proving they can produce at 1800tpd and then 2100 by year end. Bobwins]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98322-china-still-vulnerable-to-slowdown-despite-domestic-market-buffer?source=feed#comment-272676 272676
Your article doesn't mention what I expect will also bolster the Chinese economy. China is like the US in the 50's, 60's and 70's. They are building the infrastructure to support their tremendous growth. We are talking about them dropping below double digit growth for the first time in the decade. We would kill for 5% growth.

The building of freeways, bridges, power grid, dams, nuclear power plants, rail, subway, etc. is a tremendous addition to the Chinese economy. While it won't make up for all the losses in low cost manufacturing jobs, it will be steady due to government funding.

Large infrastructure projects do not stop and start with expectations. They are building them continuously to try to catch up and stay ahead of growth. At this stage in their growth cycle, China is fundamentally a lot stronger than their fledging stock market. Bobwins]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 11:28:43 -0400
Your article doesn't mention what I expect will also bolster the Chinese economy. China is like the US in the 50's, 60's and 70's. They are building the infrastructure to support their tremendous growth. We are talking about them dropping below double digit growth for the first time in the decade. We would kill for 5% growth.

The building of freeways, bridges, power grid, dams, nuclear power plants, rail, subway, etc. is a tremendous addition to the Chinese economy. While it won't make up for all the losses in low cost manufacturing jobs, it will be steady due to government funding.

Large infrastructure projects do not stop and start with expectations. They are building them continuously to try to catch up and stay ahead of growth. At this stage in their growth cycle, China is fundamentally a lot stronger than their fledging stock market. Bobwins]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92764-energy-etfs-and-hurricanes?source=feed#comment-240041 240041
Of course, a spike in ngas prices to double digits might attract more LNG but that could take months to arrange also and the price would have to be much higher than the current 8.62 to compete with China, Japan, S. Korea and Europe who are paying up to twice that for LNG. ]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 10:53:51 -0400
Of course, a spike in ngas prices to double digits might attract more LNG but that could take months to arrange also and the price would have to be much higher than the current 8.62 to compete with China, Japan, S. Korea and Europe who are paying up to twice that for LNG. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91026-semafo-junior-gold-miner-shines?source=feed#comment-233481 233481
All kidding aside, Semafo looks like a slam dunk bargain.

Produced 54,000oz of gold in Q2. They just installed a new ball mill at Mana that will double production capacity. Since they produced around 7800 oz in July, it looks like they will ramp up to around 15,000 oz for Mana later this year. So the .05eps they earned in Q2 isn't the peak production.

Annualized the .05 eps turns into .20eps and the stock should be selling for around $4. Although it trades in Canada, SMF.to doesn't appear to have that much of a following in Canada. Maybe the African location scares some away. Seems really cheap and mgmt appears very capable after bringing three mines into production. Most companies nowadays can't bring one to production.

Bobwins]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 18:25:41 -0400
All kidding aside, Semafo looks like a slam dunk bargain.

Produced 54,000oz of gold in Q2. They just installed a new ball mill at Mana that will double production capacity. Since they produced around 7800 oz in July, it looks like they will ramp up to around 15,000 oz for Mana later this year. So the .05eps they earned in Q2 isn't the peak production.

Annualized the .05 eps turns into .20eps and the stock should be selling for around $4. Although it trades in Canada, SMF.to doesn't appear to have that much of a following in Canada. Maybe the African location scares some away. Seems really cheap and mgmt appears very capable after bringing three mines into production. Most companies nowadays can't bring one to production.

Bobwins]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90974-natural-gas-prices-set-to-surge-canaccord?source=feed#comment-231008 231008
We will benefit from the increased production but our massive deficit in oil production vs consumption will eventually push various consumers towards ngas and that will support ngas prices and eventually reestablish equity on a btu/btu basis with oil. Human nature. If it's a cheaper alternative, Americans will double size it until it gets scarce and expensive. We consume too much energy per capita. Quit complaining about prices and do the logical thing......USE LESS!]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 09:05:34 -0400
We will benefit from the increased production but our massive deficit in oil production vs consumption will eventually push various consumers towards ngas and that will support ngas prices and eventually reestablish equity on a btu/btu basis with oil. Human nature. If it's a cheaper alternative, Americans will double size it until it gets scarce and expensive. We consume too much energy per capita. Quit complaining about prices and do the logical thing......USE LESS!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83109-are-these-nine-methane-stocks-on-fire-or-blowing-hot-air?source=feed#comment-195234 195234
You're not going to buy Consol or Peabody because they produce coalbed methane on the side. However they have the capital and cashflow from their main business to profitably extract the coal bed methane and wait for the production to add to profits. They already have the coal land so this is a nice additional revenue source.

I own QRCP because they are buying a private company with large Marcellus Shale land holdings. PetroEdge was the leader in the Marcellus and QRCP is buying their current production and acreage. The shale plays are the key to long term growth. The play extends over extended distances and has just been difficult to extract until recent technical advances have made it possible.

Now companies with capital can turn this into a factory situation. They have capital so they can afford the high costs of horizontal drilling and specialized fracing. They can throw additional capital at it and increase the number of drills and crews working their inventory. The results are more uniform and are high percentage.

If the industry can repeat the Barnett Shale, the plays with large acreage posiitions and good technical skills should become long term winners. The big guys can wait for a little guy like PetroEdge to prove up the area and then move in with cash when it's ready for a rampup in drilling.

There will be many winners in shale gas over the next few years. Ngas is clean burning, hard to transport and we already have a deficit in domestic production. We are getting about 15% of our consumption from Canada. That supply is dwindling as they use more themselves and use it for the tar sands rampup.

Bobwins]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:31:23 -0400
You're not going to buy Consol or Peabody because they produce coalbed methane on the side. However they have the capital and cashflow from their main business to profitably extract the coal bed methane and wait for the production to add to profits. They already have the coal land so this is a nice additional revenue source.

I own QRCP because they are buying a private company with large Marcellus Shale land holdings. PetroEdge was the leader in the Marcellus and QRCP is buying their current production and acreage. The shale plays are the key to long term growth. The play extends over extended distances and has just been difficult to extract until recent technical advances have made it possible.

Now companies with capital can turn this into a factory situation. They have capital so they can afford the high costs of horizontal drilling and specialized fracing. They can throw additional capital at it and increase the number of drills and crews working their inventory. The results are more uniform and are high percentage.

If the industry can repeat the Barnett Shale, the plays with large acreage posiitions and good technical skills should become long term winners. The big guys can wait for a little guy like PetroEdge to prove up the area and then move in with cash when it's ready for a rampup in drilling.

There will be many winners in shale gas over the next few years. Ngas is clean burning, hard to transport and we already have a deficit in domestic production. We are getting about 15% of our consumption from Canada. That supply is dwindling as they use more themselves and use it for the tar sands rampup.

Bobwins]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72973-jinpan-int-l-a-small-cap-chinese-infrastructure-play?source=feed#comment-153696 153696
JLT looks like it fits my target parameters but it isn't particularly cheap. Thanks for the good article. I will do some DD on JLT. It is certainly got growth in the infrastructure buildout categories. Bobwins]]> Sun, 20 Apr 2008 14:30:36 -0400
JLT looks like it fits my target parameters but it isn't particularly cheap. Thanks for the good article. I will do some DD on JLT. It is certainly got growth in the infrastructure buildout categories. Bobwins]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63946-2-wind-generated-power-companies-to-consider?source=feed#comment-115661 115661 Mon, 11 Feb 2008 09:12:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/39051-china-natural-gas-there-s-still-time-to-catch-some-growth?source=feed#comment-89336 89336
"For the year 2007, the Company expects revenue to increase 70% to $32.0 million from $18.8 million in 2006. The Company expects net income to increase 70% to $9.3 million in 2007 from $5.5 million in 2006. For the year 2008, the Company anticipates revenue and net income growth of at least 70%."
2006=5.5/22 or .25eps
2007= 9.3/24.2 or .38eps
2008= +70% or 15.81/26(assuming warrants in the money)= .61eps

So today's price 4.43/.25=17.7 p/e ttm
2007 4.43/.38= 11.65 forward p/e
2008 4.43/.61= 7.26

Is there another PR with different company guidance?]]> Thu, 21 Jun 2007 17:35:33 -0400
"For the year 2007, the Company expects revenue to increase 70% to $32.0 million from $18.8 million in 2006. The Company expects net income to increase 70% to $9.3 million in 2007 from $5.5 million in 2006. For the year 2008, the Company anticipates revenue and net income growth of at least 70%."
2006=5.5/22 or .25eps
2007= 9.3/24.2 or .38eps
2008= +70% or 15.81/26(assuming warrants in the money)= .61eps

So today's price 4.43/.25=17.7 p/e ttm
2007 4.43/.38= 11.65 forward p/e
2008 4.43/.61= 7.26

Is there another PR with different company guidance?]]>