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EysteinH

EysteinH
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  • Trina Solar And Its Competitive Advantage [View article]
    Hehe john Schiro I did not want to mention that but yes TSL is indeed now the world largest by quarterly shipments. But for year on year we will wait for q4 (but it is obvious TSL will surpass YGE this year.)
    Oct 21, 2014. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar And Its Competitive Advantage [View article]
    I find yge interesting even with its high debt due to the fact management have made some drastic moves now to improve margins and cash position. It is certainly not a bad company in producing solar panels (among leaders in cost) and tech wise they have an impressive lineup of technology only matching jaso and tsl. I think tomorrow much will be more clear when they host the annual investors day and I look forward to reading that material. What I do not like on yge so far is the high debt and higher equity than mcap situation they are in. But I think this could be improving so I am certainly watching then. It will be very interesting to see if it is yge or tsl that will lead in production capacity in 2015 but it will be a close race. But for the moment I simply feel I lack enough information on YGE and anyone who can read a balance sheet see it is still having some signs of distress like a very high debt vs cash level compared with industry peers.
    Oct 20, 2014. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar And Its Competitive Advantage [View article]
    I am long TSL and really like the company but while I think this article is full of good intentions and author should be commended for discussing one of the most important tier 1 chinese producers in recent history - I think a few things can be added:

    The integrated structure of TSL is not uncommon from other tier 1 solars, and it is still heavily oem dependent and using wafers from gcl as its blended cost is still higher than its inhouse cost. The good points about this article is highlighting that TSL is following the project sale steps of CSIQ (albeit they are also retaining some projects and might consider doing yieldco like JKS as well.) More importently is the fact they are doing this on unprecedented scale 1 gw now and a massive pipeline of 8 GW and not all of it is in China eithere (75-80% China.)

    I also think highlighting the social responsibility of TSL and how they install off grid and are one of the few Chinese companies both publishing a sustainability report and also top places in environmental and social responsibility and its ceo who is engaged in davos talks pretty much every year is important to highlight. It is not just words as it has real meaning, for example JKS is under a lawsuit for a spill in a river some years back ago and this is still going in the courts with the result undecided. (source: http://reut.rs/ZLVXeE ) It should be mentioned in the same place that TSL together with YGE and Suntech are having a case with energyconversion devices (http://bit.ly/ZLW0Ha ) Finally regarding politics - TSL is also the leader of the chinese solar association and have a lot of say in any discussion on Solar in China due to its strong industry position both economically and politically.

    Cost wise TSL is also doing very well inhouse and is neck and neck with leader JKS. However the blended cost leaves something to be desired. YGE is doing drastic steps and cutting off 400 MW to not use OEM and this is going to show margin growth simply by not doing inhouse anymore. I hope TSL buys out the oem they are using and switches over to a more inhouse model in the future. I see this only as another great potential for the future of TSL so this is one reason I am long TSL. They are also going to lead on scale as they are pushing for a massive 5 GW of modules in 2015 almost twice the capacity of some of the other tier 1 leaders.

    The author also touches on the cash and equity position of TSL, and it is now the best among the tier 1 chinese producers closely followed by JASO. For me this is the reason I am invested in TSL and JASO and not CSIQ - CSIQ will show great earnings but they are also having around 3x the mcap of equity position - in itself not a problem in good times - but if ever bad times comes again then you want to have the companies that have high equity levels as this shield somewhat of falling too low off equity levels if market are rough. And not to mention the fact that we are not yet done with mergers and acquisitions - there has been some severe price pressure in china in q3 for tier 2 guys and I am sure some of them sadly are struggling. TSL is in the unique position that it has cash both for doing downstream, adding lots of capacity AND acquisitions. CSIQ on the other hand have great loan deals but I do not think they can grow as fast as TSL does now - CSIQ should be commended for its first move and great strategy and I am sure it will show in the stock price the coming quarters - but for the even longer term view I think TSL and JASO are going to do great as both are doing the same as CSIQ does only from a better cash/equity position to start with. One might argue it is too late - no more FiTs - but it is only recently FiTs in Japan and China are talking about reducing again (next 5 year plan of China is rumored to reduce fit to 0.6 down from 0.9 current and 1 yuan per kwh previously) and both companies have securede pipelines at favorable FiT terms (1-0,9 yuan per kwh)

    Finally I would add that for people tracking shipments with customs data Q3 should be fairly unique in using a lot of modules shipped previously. JASO commented on this in Q2 they had 40 MW shipped during Q2 that will be revenue recognized during Q3. This is due to the tariff situation in US. My guess (and its only a guess) is that TSL will have shipped some modules during Q2 that will be retained as revenue during Q3 so this will help the company from the low china prices during q3 (for 2 out of 3 months prices where low in china during Q3). Q4 the outlook now looks really good to be honest, prices are up and volumes are there so I am really looking forward to Q4 guidance in the Q3 reports.
    Oct 20, 2014. 04:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Trina Solar Is Likely A Bad Idea [View article]
    Earnings season are here soon and the fundamentals are strong long term. Not the slightest worried in a 2 year perspective. Q3 should be within guidance (TSL slightly lower margin as guided) Q4 should guide up again due to ASP on the rise again in China.

    And I never try to predict market from day to day. I have searched high and low for any good rationale explanation to the selloff and there is none. The japan grid situation is overblown and not really that serious. Asp in China is on the re-bounce and demand is quite good. US market while having tariff still allow some tier 1 to sell at high asp but with lower margins due to customs (still profitable I might add.) Technology wise the so fantastic SUNE tech is basically just a fancy wording for a PERC cell so thats neither a threat either. Lower oil prices is what..1% of the energy market in the power sector? Again I do not see the big relevance here as solar is clearly already profitable without subsidies in some market and getting there quickly (2-3 years) in others.

    Funny thing is we are now approaching a MCAP of cash and cash equivalent values of both TSL and JASO. Thats how low market is currently pricing them and to be seems very irrational behavior. It is not like we will see any bankruptcy from those two either with very solid balance sheets and high equity.
    Oct 14, 2014. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lessons Of GT Technologies [View article]
    Good article. But I disagree with the first point about apple not buying GTAT outright - apple has not done this previously for other suppliers so this did not raise any red flags for me. But the rest of your article was in my opinion good wisdom.
    Oct 14, 2014. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Finally Tackles Solar Support [View article]
    Because they want adoption quickly so they make IRR even higher. I am not saying that currently every project in China is profitable without subsidies, because that is not true. As can be seen in most studies only the most well executed ones are and they are minor portion of the total. But the trend is clear and by 2020 when these subsidies run out I do not think it will be any problem to have profitable projects without subsidies when the best case scenarios already have in 2014. I have two caveats: If there is grid problems it will ofcourse affect the scenario. Also if energy prices crashes down it would take slightly longer. But in any such case I would imagine the government who already invested hugely into this would step up and I only see this as very unlikely scenarios.
    Oct 13, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Finally Tackles Solar Support [View article]
    Davewmart the average market price of electricity in china is around 0.08-0.10$/kWh. (example of source: http://bit.ly/1o80vHL ) Since solar by far will have a much lower LCOE than this in China by 2020 (it already has in many places) I am not sure what "messed up economics" will come from this as it will be highly profitable even without subsidies at this point.

    Look for example this for example of LCOE of solar in china: http://bit.ly/1o80xPY page 7. There are scenarioes in china with around 70$/MWH (0.07$/kwh) already so what do you think will happen by 2020??

    And you can also just use your own head and not take any of sources as material. With a system installation cost of somewhere around 1,2$/watt in China currently and 20-30 year lifetime you can have the cash cost written down to 0.04-0.06$/watt + the cleaning of modules, degradation and grid costs you see that there already can be scenarios with 0.07$/watt total cost and it is only going to get better.

    This unlike fossil fuel like oil or more importantly coal that have a huge cost on society in pollution and the effect of this, not to mention geopolitical costs and other "hidden" costs to society.

    My only worry for the china market is if they will have grid problem or not. This is not a big problem for Japan as while yes some projects will be canceled we are still looking at 7-10 GW per year for at least the next 3 years from Japan. (and thats included the grid problems in 4 prefactures.) I do not want to see a repeat of grid problems China had with wind energy for a while, but I do not think this will happen but sometime to be on the lookout for.
    Oct 13, 2014. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Finally Tackles Solar Support [View article]
    Author has an on purpose negative spin and does not even know basic math. (50% reduction going from 0.9 to 0.6 .......50% reduction is 0.45 yuan per kwh rate.)

    And I agree with above poster, anyone doing some real research into what cost level solar have in China will see it is very sustainable even without subsidies in a few years. And its not like western companies have had subsidies as well for for example research. Solyndra is one example of a subsidy gone bad.
    Oct 13, 2014. 02:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Can Current Shareholders Walk Away With Any Value? [View article]
    Actually hyperion have been suggested use in cancer theraphy. Nothing wrong with the hyperion patent it is still one heck of a machine.
    Oct 8, 2014. 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of JA Solar's $100M Buyback And Sell Now [View article]
    Why are you comparing US prices to Japan prices when what you should compare is so called "clean" coal and natural gass prices in Japan. With freight costs etc it is no wonder why Japan subsidizes solar electricity costs with a high amount. And do not get me started on how much coal and natural gass really costs when you factor in long term pollution costs. In fact when you factor in all costs and how coal has a very high recurring cost while solar has a very low recurring costs the costs of solar becomes very clear is superior. And for the record comparing prices in US vs US coal is also good and can be seen by the booming US solar market. (Or perhaps you deny these facts as well?)

    Btw todays so called "news" on grid in Japan is not news at all. Read pv-magazine nr 7 2013 they have a good article about this page 37 to 40. The grids affected are in prefactures with low grid capacity - installers knew about this when applying for approval. With the fact that it is only new approvals affected I see very minor effect for the next 3 years on the temporary halt in those prefactures. Basically in Japan there is very little new under the sun and should still be a 7-10 gw market in the next 2-3 years. And EU is opening up again end of 2015.

    Debt ratio of TSL and JASO vs equiyt is in very good situation. It is not RECSOL or FSLR but they are definitivly in a good spot. I would avoid YGE and CSUN.
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced -90.4% after resuming trading [View news story]
    Shocking. Truly shocking. I am glad I sold my GTAT straight away after the apple event. But wow. I could have had my money whiped out on this. Very humbling experience.
    Oct 6, 2014. 10:56 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Raises More Cash, Evergrande Tries Solar Development [View article]
    TSL has fallen quite steeply recently so not so sure this was seen as so great. (I strongly disagree with the market reaction TSL is headed for very good times.) The thing is it is also very misunderstood as a high % of the ADR are only borrowed and will be returned to TSL so they are not dilutive. Not to mention they are going to very profitable investments. The capex of equipment is around 0.18$/watt just the cell capacity not counting the on top free wafer,ingot and module capacity expansion. Basically just selling one single quarter will earn back the investment. And projects have quite high IRR so I do not mind share issues for this either as long as it is gaining more equity for all shareholders (and it is.) I am long TSL but I wonder why capex that is reported in prospectus seems to be different than capex reported in Q1 and Q2 transcript here on seekingalpha. Hopefully it is just a typo. On the bright side of things TSL is doing 5 GW of module capacity in 2015 and the early pipeline is now at a massive 8 GW. (with later pipeline around 1,1 gw)
    Oct 3, 2014. 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: How The Bulls Got It So Wrong [View article]
    Mark ok article and it is very fair to say the bulls got it wrong so far. In hindsight there where a lot of signs in the 10q so this should have been spotted. But the part about the company producing the furnaces is wrong. Gtat use 3rd parties for manufacturing the equipment.
    Sep 17, 2014. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Trina Solar Is Likely A Bad Idea [View article]
    It is only natural for account payable (raw goods for material) to grow when they are preparing for 1+ GW of shipment. As this graph will show you clearly:
    http://bit.ly/1wAgVuT

    And do not get me started on the Gordon comment as this was indeed well within guidance (2,8 GW cell) and confirming that indeed for Q3 they are well on the way to reaching guidance goals for shipments (sold out) so this was significant news and not as Gordon claims it was a none event.
    Sep 16, 2014. 01:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Trina Solar's Q2 Earnings Report Impact The Stock? [View article]
    Also I would point out author is wrong in saying 0.67 during Q2. From CC:
    http://bit.ly/1t429XZ
    "The average ASP for Q2 is about $0.65 and compared to $0.66 in the previous quarter."

    Snake with high 20's to over 30% to US shipments I am not afraid of a big drop in ASP for TSL in Q3.
    from CC:
    "the percentage for the U.S. share compared to our total shipments will be in the high-20s and may even be in the 30s, low-30s in our total shipments."

    One point many seem to be lost in here is that with the tariff ASP is much higher in US for TSL. Granted margins are lower due to paying tariff fees but the overall revenue is much higher and this could take some analyst by surprise in Q3. If we drop 0.6 % (i think this is too conservative snake, nothing wrong with having a conservative estimate but I think this is too much err on the safe side compared with the situation in the market) but with a much higher revenue we are still talking a profitable company so earnings per share should actually go up. I am not expecting miracles but I am expecting net profit from TSL in Q3 as well.

    Also with recent policies what will be interesting Q3 is guidance Q4 as well. Given the recent 300 china + 50 MW UK projects I think TSL is set to surpass YGE as number one in shipments this year. And those shipments are not loosing TSL money, they are profitable.
    Sep 4, 2014. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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