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EysteinH

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  • Take Advantage Of JA Solar's $100M Buyback And Sell Now [View article]
    Why are you comparing US prices to Japan prices when what you should compare is so called "clean" coal and natural gass prices in Japan. With freight costs etc it is no wonder why Japan subsidizes solar electricity costs with a high amount. And do not get me started on how much coal and natural gass really costs when you factor in long term pollution costs. In fact when you factor in all costs and how coal has a very high recurring cost while solar has a very low recurring costs the costs of solar becomes very clear is superior. And for the record comparing prices in US vs US coal is also good and can be seen by the booming US solar market. (Or perhaps you deny these facts as well?)

    Btw todays so called "news" on grid in Japan is not news at all. Read pv-magazine nr 7 2013 they have a good article about this page 37 to 40. The grids affected are in prefactures with low grid capacity - installers knew about this when applying for approval. With the fact that it is only new approvals affected I see very minor effect for the next 3 years on the temporary halt in those prefactures. Basically in Japan there is very little new under the sun and should still be a 7-10 gw market in the next 2-3 years. And EU is opening up again end of 2015.

    Debt ratio of TSL and JASO vs equiyt is in very good situation. It is not RECSOL or FSLR but they are definitivly in a good spot. I would avoid YGE and CSUN.
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced -90.4% after resuming trading [View news story]
    Shocking. Truly shocking. I am glad I sold my GTAT straight away after the apple event. But wow. I could have had my money whiped out on this. Very humbling experience.
    Oct 6, 2014. 10:56 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Raises More Cash, Evergrande Tries Solar Development [View article]
    TSL has fallen quite steeply recently so not so sure this was seen as so great. (I strongly disagree with the market reaction TSL is headed for very good times.) The thing is it is also very misunderstood as a high % of the ADR are only borrowed and will be returned to TSL so they are not dilutive. Not to mention they are going to very profitable investments. The capex of equipment is around 0.18$/watt just the cell capacity not counting the on top free wafer,ingot and module capacity expansion. Basically just selling one single quarter will earn back the investment. And projects have quite high IRR so I do not mind share issues for this either as long as it is gaining more equity for all shareholders (and it is.) I am long TSL but I wonder why capex that is reported in prospectus seems to be different than capex reported in Q1 and Q2 transcript here on seekingalpha. Hopefully it is just a typo. On the bright side of things TSL is doing 5 GW of module capacity in 2015 and the early pipeline is now at a massive 8 GW. (with later pipeline around 1,1 gw)
    Oct 3, 2014. 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: How The Bulls Got It So Wrong [View article]
    Mark ok article and it is very fair to say the bulls got it wrong so far. In hindsight there where a lot of signs in the 10q so this should have been spotted. But the part about the company producing the furnaces is wrong. Gtat use 3rd parties for manufacturing the equipment.
    Sep 17, 2014. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Trina Solar Is Likely A Bad Idea [View article]
    It is only natural for account payable (raw goods for material) to grow when they are preparing for 1+ GW of shipment. As this graph will show you clearly:
    http://bit.ly/1wAgVuT

    And do not get me started on the Gordon comment as this was indeed well within guidance (2,8 GW cell) and confirming that indeed for Q3 they are well on the way to reaching guidance goals for shipments (sold out) so this was significant news and not as Gordon claims it was a none event.
    Sep 16, 2014. 01:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Trina Solar's Q2 Earnings Report Impact The Stock? [View article]
    Also I would point out author is wrong in saying 0.67 during Q2. From CC:
    http://bit.ly/1t429XZ
    "The average ASP for Q2 is about $0.65 and compared to $0.66 in the previous quarter."

    Snake with high 20's to over 30% to US shipments I am not afraid of a big drop in ASP for TSL in Q3.
    from CC:
    "the percentage for the U.S. share compared to our total shipments will be in the high-20s and may even be in the 30s, low-30s in our total shipments."

    One point many seem to be lost in here is that with the tariff ASP is much higher in US for TSL. Granted margins are lower due to paying tariff fees but the overall revenue is much higher and this could take some analyst by surprise in Q3. If we drop 0.6 % (i think this is too conservative snake, nothing wrong with having a conservative estimate but I think this is too much err on the safe side compared with the situation in the market) but with a much higher revenue we are still talking a profitable company so earnings per share should actually go up. I am not expecting miracles but I am expecting net profit from TSL in Q3 as well.

    Also with recent policies what will be interesting Q3 is guidance Q4 as well. Given the recent 300 china + 50 MW UK projects I think TSL is set to surpass YGE as number one in shipments this year. And those shipments are not loosing TSL money, they are profitable.
    Sep 4, 2014. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Trina Solar's Q2 Earnings Report Impact The Stock? [View article]
    "The more concise answer is Tina has 85% of their projects under construction in China. They have identified more projects that may or may not pan out in which China accounts for 78% of those. The 78% number is proved by Trina but they make no claims as to whether they are permitted or will be completed."

    Actually this must be permitting included. They have well over 1 GW of MOU's. See for example the press release where they plan 1 GW in China:
    http://bit.ly/1t3HzqJ;highlight=

    Also you can just use your brain. We know they recently purchased a 300 MW project - this has already permitting. We know they are currently constructing 310 MW. So it is very safe to say there is now above 600 MW of permitted projects. Also I think that to say 85% will be chinese projects is very wrong when TSL has intention of doing international projects and recently even press released a 50 MW UK project (http://bit.ly/1qg4aSG;highlight=)

    "Slightly lower is lower and it includes projects in the High Teens per the con call. This implies that module margins will drop significantly further as suggested in the con call for various reasons including CVD and China volumes."

    Also wrong. The only intended to be sold is the 23.7 MW of UK projects. This will have a very minor effect on margins so that it implies margins will drop significantly is RUBBISH. TSL themselves guide slightly lower margins. Now we know that revenue will be higher. What does that mean? It means more profit.

    And again you can also just use your brain. We know data from customs of ASP in the regions. Put those together and you see with international shipments TSL is not going to get much lower margins. Yes ASP in china is low. But asp in places as US and EU pull this up while Japan is avg. (also you can just read conference call of competitors to get a good feel for asp in regions.)

    "if shipments were below forecast then it is a miss on company guidance as well as the mid range consensus the company set. According to the slide 7 you mentioned they missed on low end shipments by 6.7MW and missed on shipments to projects by 1.3MW. That is a miss on the very low end in both divisions of the company(modules and downstream) and a mis of ~5% in mid range consensus guidance which is supposed to be the likely."

    If you think that's a miss that's your choice. For those who know to read they missed low end by 1%. I do not see a problem with this at all. We are talking about a very healthy company: Profitable (and continuing to be this in q3 and q4) at very low mcap compared with equity and growing a project pipeline fast while catching up on costs of leaders and going for a lead position in technology. (With less costs in r&d I might add due to several good university cooporation and it really shows in TSL patents they are moving forward very quickly compared with competitors.)
    Sep 4, 2014. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Trina Solar's Q2 Earnings Report Impact The Stock? [View article]
    "85% of the company's downstream projects are in China. TSL has finished projects worth 24 megawatts during this year and still projects worth 310 megawatts are on their way to completion." This statement is full of factual errors.

    Look the presentation for Q2 page 9. 78% projects are currently pipelined in China, not 85%. While 24 MW are completed in UK also in Greece,US and italy another 22,23 MW has been connected to Grid.
    (Source: http://bit.ly/1t39Fm4 )

    "For the third quarter the company is expecting a lower gross margin"
    Here lies a very important difference in wording. TSL only reports a "slight lower gross margin"

    "And the share price for TSL stock is estimated to be $15 per share for the year."
    Agree with author on this. For 2014 this is a fair price given the current situation. But for 2015 I think we will have to re-evaluate this. Also note there are new policies coming (already out on several Chinese sites so not really a rumor anymore)

    "The second quarter missed consensus estimates for revenues as solar module shipments were lower than the company's earlier guidance, and it also warned of lower gross profit margin in the third quarter. Trina Solar Limited has reiterated its guidance for the third quarter and stated that the total shipments are now expected to rise but potential shareholders cannot be sure of this statement as the company previously failed to achieve its estimate for the second quarter."

    What did it not achieve of estimates in Q2? According to press release from Q1:
    "In the second quarter of 2014 the Company expects to ship between 950 MW and 1,010 MW of PV modules, of which 150 MW to 170 MW will be shipped to its downstream PV projects. Revenues will not be recognized for the modules shipped to its own developed projects as required by U.S. GAAP regulations. The Company expects that polysilicon prices will remain relatively stable with upward pressure. This will adversely impact its gross margin. The Company will continue to work diligently to reduce its in-house manufacturing costs to mitigate any adverse impact to its gross margin. The Company expects its blended gross margin for the second quarter of 2014 will be in the mid-teens in percentage terms. Such guidance is based on the exchange rate between the Euro and the U.S. dollar as of May 21, 2014. - See more at: http://bit.ly/1t39Huh"

    -Shipments came in at 943MW I would not exactly call this a miss (7 MW or 1%)
    Apart from this everyone was as guided. If anything TSL is a very stable company who generally do as they guide.
    Sep 4, 2014. 06:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Thrives On Solar Financing [View article]
    Zangnut I have suggested the yieldco model long before it came fashion (I suggested this when I ran for board member position in REC a looong time ago) so I know about yieldco. TSL has stated they plan to sell some and keep some of the projects. Currently they have a small UK project for sale. I have also done research on JKS long before anyone started talking about IPO for its pipeline. (Look up some of my projections that are years old - I used to be a JKS investor.) Anyhow yes yieldco is creating value when sold as IPO (among many many other things.) and in fact sometimes even too much! (I was positively surprised at terraform valuations even when I was a strong backer of doing yieldco.) But that has not so much to do with this article (other than holding a project for longer until IPO creates more risks) - what is important is that the author seems to think China is somewhat more risky than say Canada when I think there is actually evidence suggesting China is one of the better solar project markets. And as a minimum the author (who by the way has many good articles in the past) should research what transactions have been done on Chinese solar projects before stating that this is "largely an untested market"
    Sep 3, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Thrives On Solar Financing [View article]
    "China is still largely an untested market in that regard" is especially the part I react to. There are a growing number of projects transactions that has happened in China so the data is clearly there. If the author had bothered he could have dug a bit deeper and looked at this instead of claiming China is a largely untested market. Also many valuable lessons where learned during the previous Wind energy installation boom. I could think of several western markets much more untested and with bigger risks. (example political risks like Spain with retroactive cuts, or even geopolitical risks like Ukraine where in Crimea there is a question of the future of some solar parks.)
    Sep 3, 2014. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Thrives On Solar Financing [View article]
    And to write this about TSL of all - That is funny. They have an international pipeline (granted around 70% currently in China but pipeline in Japan and UK I am sure will grow) and have picked some very good projects in China. I do however agree that for some this will be a problem. But I would definitively not have picked TSL as an example for this article.

    Anyhow this skepticism over Chinese solars is getting far too much now. I have over the years read several of authors articles (on sites both his blog and sites as renewable energy world ) and I have appreciated his writing in the past as he has a good understanding on whats happening in China. But really to discuss a big risk on projects when in China the solar projects is very high on the politics priority lists seems odd to me. Especially since it is also the people in China who will this as well. (Due to the pollution.) Finally signs in recent times have been of several added politics for direct generation and provincial subsidies (see sites like ne21.com for new politics.) So the signs are clear the support is there.

    I do not see a scenario like in Wind where many projects are stranded due to grid capacity as a general trend. (Keep in mind Jaso mentioned in latest conference call they had to sell a project on the cheap due to this but I would say the grid is in much better shape than say under the wind boom.) I do however see regular risks like natural disasters etc. But like anything else you get insurance for your projects for such things.

    Perhaps author should compare with western countries and realize also here many projects get cancelled and like anywhere else it is who has the best ability and planning who will win going forward. TSL has not made a risk in my mind here - Why? For projects in China there is a long history and track record of successful sold projects generating good returns for the solar company. So clearly the natural question should not be if it will be a problem, but if it will continue to work well? (Shunfeng has recently reduced pipeline from 3 GW to 2 GW due to competition so I think the answer lies in your ability to compete.) When it comes to ability TSL have this in spades. They have a big program for technology development (honey ultra, IBC, HJ and several other advance cell designs) with honey ultra already in pilot lines. They also have good experience now with glass/glass modules and can do 30 year warranties for these compared with 20 year avg. They are just half a cent behind cost leader JKS when using inhouse cost as a metric and have gained on JKS in recent quarters while having a much better (my opinion) technology road map. (not that JKS is not a good company but if we are talking risk they are most exposed since projects are all currently in China and would have been a much better example for the article.) Finally TSL has already recently sold one 50 MW project successfully in China so we know the management has some experience in lining up buyers. (And frankly if you read the history of TSL they have done projects albeit on a smaller scale since day 1)
    Sep 3, 2014. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JA Solar Catches Chinese Flu [View article]
    I think FSLR/Tetrasun has too low volume to affect asp's in Japan much but good observation to keep in mind for future Casual Analyst. They do have an off take customer for the product as well already so I think it is only adding to demand not taking away from someone else market share. Also did they not say in last CC they are delaying Tetrasun modules due to having accelerated the CDTE roadmap or did I remember that one wrong? (I am not 100% sure)
    Aug 22, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why First Solar Should Continue Beating The Market [View article]
    I think its a good question. Project income is actually healthy but they have had to delay some project sales and they are holding on to some for yieldco launch so profitability and margins might be down for a few quarters. When it comes to asp of modules I am quite confident the margins are on the way up again. You could read sites like energytrend and look at the 20% gain in thin film asp:
    http://bit.ly/18Ioujt
    Aug 18, 2014. 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why First Solar Should Continue Beating The Market [View article]
    I think FSLR will be able to buy many project development opportunities in the US that where previously going to use c-si modules but now due to tariffs are not cost effective with this model anymore.

    The technology development of cdte is undoubtedly positive as well but I feel the author of this article does not give a good picture of the situation. The situation is that c-si already has made most tech developments and can get to 25% effiency levels by going for IBC cells and other advance cell designs like HJ or bifacial cells or more near term PERC and all of this techs have been developed over the last decade. They could also do 2 or 3 layers with thin film on top to gain even efficiency somewhat over 35% so efficiency wise it is not a problem for c-si. It is true CDTE is ramping up much quicker in recent times the technology efficiency but they are actually not THE technology leader. I would rather say they are doing great on the CDTE front and driving down to very low costs for a pretty decent high efficiency tech in the future.

    The much more interesting discussion is who can produce this cells cheapest $/watt or even more important with lowest cost to the power provider (LCOE costs) I think CDTE is on track for success but I have not ruled out the leaders of C-si for this as well either. For example JASO with a cost structure around 0.53 (I say around as it is unknown how much the advanced cell design is in cost compared with the average but we do know they guide for under 0.4 cost for processing by end of 2014 and with an assumed poly cost of 0.1 this is a cost of 0.5 end of year.) with 20,4% efficiency mono cells in mass production seems to suggest c-si cannot be ruled out anytime soon. (this compares with FSLR fleet avg of 14% currently per q2)
    http://bit.ly/1pUHVQq;highlight=

    In comparisson CDTE at current plans is 16,5% efficiency (granted for a module but even reducing from cell to module the percium of JASO should be much higher) in 2015 in the technology update of FSLR. So from an absolute effiency standpoint even factoring temperature coefficency it is not a leader. But among the leaders yes surely as not all c-si producers are changing to perc or more advanced cell designs.
    http://bit.ly/1pUHXrv

    On the other side of the coin of things you could argue cdte is producing cheaper, albeit at much less efficiency thus BoS costs will be higher even if FSLR has done tremendous strides in driving down BoS cost it cannot compete with say 1,2$/watt costs for a Chinese best in class project (located in China.) Or say the low cost recycling c-si producer jks who are going to be around 0.44-0.45 cost end of year if poly prices does not spike too much and with q1 cost of 0.47. And these c-si modules have a better efficiency even if you include temperature coefficiency into the equation or look at LCOE.

    With that said I agree with the author first solar as a western pv company has still attractive P/E values and the yieldco and project growth should defend higher MCAP going forward. FSLR is definitively on the up and up and CDTE prices has been rising steadily recently due to the tariffs. FSLR Is on my watch list as I currently have better opportunities to invest in compared with MCAP but it is certainly a great company and I wish the stockholders all the best going forward with great technology updates and driving down cost of solar for the benefit of all of humanity.
    Aug 17, 2014. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beaten-Down Trina Solar Is A Growing Value Play [View article]
    1. Fair enough and a reasonable worry - but if dilution causes shareholder value growth it can be a good thing.
    2. DG will take this growth. Expect several news on DG in a short time span from now (months)
    3. Even if Japan turned around today they still have a 70 GW pipeline so I would not worry much about this.
    4. TSL just held a dg conference and is going into this sector going forward. With the pilot lines on very high cell efficiencies (IBC, HJ, Honey) they are well equiped to be among leaders in this segment going forward.

    Great to have worries discussion ianwood. Hopefully your long position will be a smashing success in the near future.
    Aug 15, 2014. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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