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EysteinH

EysteinH
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  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    Your not so bad discussing yourself casual analyst :)
    Jun 7 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    You are aware that the only reason JKS has a negative working capital at this point is because they have invested so heavily in projects ? Projects that are giving them a superb cashflow going forward.

    How can you say short term debt is a problem when they have more cash & restricted cash and cash equivalents than the total of short term debt (271 vs 265 mil usd) And with one of the industries best margins and secure cashflow from projects I am pretty confident JKS will have absolutely no problem to roll over any credit facilities if needed.

    Anyhow for JKS the bumpy road is not yet over. We have tariff news coming soon so that might be temporary negative (it is really not a big long term problem honestly as asp in a case with stricter tariffs in US will mean asp rise to such levels that JKS can ship even with tariff, while overall system cost is still low enough for good IRR in US. Remember BoS has dropped over a dollar in US while modules as a total is a small % of overall cost.)

    Regarding pumping out articles and pro..Well ok I can see where you are coming from there. For me honestly I am just glad other people are starting to notice JKS.
    May 30 12:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SunEdison +9.1%; S-1 filed, name given for solar project spinoff [View news story]
    Oh this is really great. I am going to watch this IPO carefully.
    May 29 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Solar Target: Increased Once Again [View article]
    Nice short summary article Johnathan. It is nice because it gives a good top view of the situation. I agree with your thinking as I have been thinking in these lines a long time now. Of course some readers will want more company specifics but I am sure they can find other articles on this in the future. I am glad that in all the noise there are voices of logic.
    May 29 02:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    And also I wish they can give more disclosure on LED/Storage solution. How much units do they expect to be able to produce? What market do they see? I know they have talked about this so far a bit but I wish they gave a proper IR presentation about these segment so one could have more easy time to value Renesola. I think it could do the company well if they did.
    May 29 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    Actually larryvand it was the Sichuan polysilicon factory that was temporarily suspended in Q1 and with one month left of production time. While I agree it was not totally unsuspected I did not expect this small volume.

    And again to me it looks like Renesola is rigged for a good Q2. I always wonder why one looks so much to the past when it is the future that matters more here. Renesola with 14% gross margin would do well in Q2. Tariff next week would be good for renesola as well. But I wonder why noone asks more question about oem capacity. How much is cell, how much is module only. How much needs to use renesola wafers. How much can go past tariff if using chinese wafers etc? But it is not my cup of tea as I prefer project income.
    May 29 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    Whats so dark spot about that Andy? They have aggressively pursued investments in solar projects and the cash-flow from this will more than cure this problem. If you have followed JKS the balance sheet has gone from worse to better really quickly so I do not expect this to be a problem going forward. Especially after the yieldco IPO if this is done successfully.

    The author also mentions the balance sheet is week currently. And if you look at his previous article he clearly writes about this problem as well.

    I found it to be a well balanced article that has some good insight into JKS as a company. And I am saying that as one who have followed it for 4 years.
    May 29 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    Yeah I might be too strict on that. It just just so incredible frustrating, the management and the workers did an excellent job in the quarter and it was overshadowed by a stupid hedge loss. I am not stupid and I can understand many reasons for doing such a hedge, as you saw they dropped cost due to the same yuan vs dollar happening, so it makes sense to hedge for income if yuan increases as this would make you have higher costs on processing. But the magnitude of the loss was very surprising to me, and I believe it would be better to have a hedging strategy that does smooth out such high swings. But thats just me. Let me say finally that apart from this heding loss JKS did an outstanding job in the quarter.

    Also regarding Chinese financials and the solar industry: I agree one must follow the industry very carefully. As any industry blooming there is a lot of technology changes and rapid consolidations and new power blocks forming. I keep tabs on most patents (used to read 100's a year and im not kidding) but now have a more relaxed outlook on that as well. What is true is that JKS will have this income from project no matter what happens in technology development as long as the Chinese state pays these Fits. This is one of many reasons I prefer JKS.

    With that said think for yourself and good luck :) And always keep a vigilant eye on your investment is sound advice at all times.
    May 29 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    Disappointing for renesola holders for sure. Especially given Q1 was a good pricing environment for poly. But I assume they took the upgrades/maintenance now in expectancy of even better prices in 2h. Also if your going to post a loss this Q might as well do the maintenance now and set yourself up for a profit in q2 (they could have with 14% gross margin) Anyhow for me I am still skeptical of renesola due to the low own capacity and debt position. It got better this quarter so the management is doing the right moves, but I still have to see how oem plays out and for me it is too risky. I wish them the best of luck as historically SOL has had a talented management in predicting where the market where moving. If they get high ASP with oem and they can keep this oem capacity going forward they could do very well. And at historically very low stock prices currently.
    May 29 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    I could add I am always on the look out for fishy financials. And I have gone as far as to confirm the project sites of JKS with google earth and youtube videos where they actually show the projects on ground.

    I have no worries in JKS financial releases. This comes after reading every 6k and 20k for the last 4 years of JKS.

    Anyways back to the article. The author is pointing to many of the good things that happened during the quarter. For me personally the hedging loss was unforgiving as this was a strategy choice of JKS and it failed terrible.

    But what I truly like is the cost position (now 0.47 even with increased poly cost) the stable asp and the conference call notes about demand going forward (confirmed by the other tier1 actors in they're conference calls as well) and finally what I like the most is the massive 52% Net profit margin on projects.
    May 29 10:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    "Do you know that the Chinese authorites do not allow SEC to interevene and protect the international investors in case a fraud happens?"

    This is wrong. The only thing that is correct about this is that some of the audit companies are barred from SEC to audit chinese companies.

    http://bit.ly/1mv4dFh

    "The ruling was made after the accounting firms' units on the mainland failed to comply with SEC orders for documents needed for a series of accounting fraud probes. The firms receiving six-month bans were Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu CPA, Ernst & Young Hua Ming, KPMG Huazhen and PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian CPAs.

    The ruling, if finalised, could impact the 425 mainland companies - with a total market capitalisation of US$185 billion - traded in New York.

    The sanctioned firms said they would appeal against the decision."

    Basically the Chinese companies would switch audit company if this ruling was finalized.

    Perhaps you would rather touch the dozens of western companies doing fraud? Enron ring a bell?
    May 29 10:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    No the currency going down is a problem because management chooses hedging strategy. It is not because of the valuation of the currency itself. They choose a bad strategy. Simple as that.
    May 29 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    While the currency move is unexpected, the hedging strategy revolving around it is not unexpected Casual analysts. You can choose more conservative hedging strategies then what JKS did here. Anyhow look forward to read your article.
    May 28 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    Nah market is incredible inefficient (the huge swings up and down in price clearly shows this as market as a whole seems to have no idea what price point to have on these solar stocks) and the whole year 2014 numbers will show this. JKS is going to have 4$/share or more during 2014. To me it seems market is watching with a very near sighted look. I care about whole year 2014 not about quarter to quarter. The next "big" thing now will be the tariff. Even india is a small market for JKS and even if asp actually will be driven up because of this market will try to find an excuse to make JKS fall in price again. I am not a trader and I am pretty confident when the dust settles and 2014 is over JKS will be at higher share prices than currently. And this comes from a guy who wrote about the tariffs in 2012. (see my profile here on seekingalpha if you do not believe it.)

    Regarding hedging they have had minor effects and actually even minor losses.

    From the 2013 annual: (source: http://bit.ly/1mEKXXv;highlight= )
    "Exchange Gain/(Loss)

    The Company entered into foreign currency forward contracts with local banks to hedge exposure to foreign exchange risks. JinkoSolar had a net gain in foreign currency exchange of RMB9.9 million (US$1.6 million) for the full year 2013, compared with a net loss of RMB45.5 million in 2012, primarily due to gain in fair value of forward contracts from the depreciation of the US dollar against the Renminbi."

    Basically this loss was like 3x the loss of whole year 2012, thats how big impact it was on earnings. For me this is now a past chapter, I am very disapointed in this hedging strategy but I am also confident in project side of JKS. As I write in another post here they had 52% net profit during this quarter on the 50 million kwh of power income they got and even half of this net profit is enough to defend a higher mcap than current when they have connected 600 MW of projects in end of 2014.
    May 28 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola: Do You Want To Buy This Lottery Ticket Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    I agree. I am just very disapointed in managment for masking this with a huge forex loss. And then just scoffing off the forex loss as a minor loss. But the underlying model of the projects is in a league of its own. IRR of 20% nobody else comes even close. Some of it is due to the lending agreement (first year principal is free, then lower and 11-15 year higher principal) some of it is due to being a cost leader (1,2$/watt system cost last prospectus) and some of it is due to having a high power production (rogly per 1 MW they produce 1,5 million KWH per annum) and finally some of it is simply due to better managment and bos reductions due to being a first mover in the chinese market. They already have permissions up and running (mentioned in cc as having a cost of 0.2$/watt for jks) and now with more and more projects rushing into china this part is actually getting more expensive due to market heating up too much so it is actually a big big deal that JKS is sitting on a 1,1 gw pipeline and have the EPC crew hired and ready to build. (as always the majority will be built during the end of the year as to get as low BoS as possible before connecting to grid.)
    May 28 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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