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EysteinH

EysteinH
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  • Solar stocks drop; China reportedly thinking of cutting targets [View news story]
    Instead of a news based on a twitter tweet from god knows who how about some actual industry news:
    http://bit.ly/1jbeuK6?

    "Beijing plans to increase the subsidy on power sales by rooftop solar farm developers to state-owned power distributors by up to 55 per cent, and compel the latter to act as an agent for collecting power bills if the developers directly sell to local customers.

    The consensus plan was reached after a meeting two weeks ago among state-backed financial institutions, bank regulators and the National Energy Administration (NEA)."
    Jul 8, 2014. 10:11 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced -90.4% after resuming trading [View news story]
    Shocking. Truly shocking. I am glad I sold my GTAT straight away after the apple event. But wow. I could have had my money whiped out on this. Very humbling experience.
    Oct 6, 2014. 10:56 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar: Here It Comes [View article]
    t requires ridiculous amounts of land to be dedicated to it and it only works when the sun is shining (obviously)

    First of all it is usually on top of roofs. This is free land and available.

    Second of all you claim the math doesnt add up for solar. I invite you to use the current solar cost numbers for any place with a decent sunlighting and see if you can with a straight face not say its economically viable. Because it is.

    Third of all you claim solar cant work without subsidizing it. Well solar now is rapidly cutting in subsidies and it is still economicall viable. If you look at history the trend is quickly for sun to not require subsidies. 2014-2015 for most european countries.

    I would listen to an author who shows with numbers what he is saying instead of saying "the numbers shows". It seems to me the author has not done his homework on the subject.
    Dec 27, 2011. 06:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar And Its Competitive Advantage [View article]
    I am long TSL and really like the company but while I think this article is full of good intentions and author should be commended for discussing one of the most important tier 1 chinese producers in recent history - I think a few things can be added:

    The integrated structure of TSL is not uncommon from other tier 1 solars, and it is still heavily oem dependent and using wafers from gcl as its blended cost is still higher than its inhouse cost. The good points about this article is highlighting that TSL is following the project sale steps of CSIQ (albeit they are also retaining some projects and might consider doing yieldco like JKS as well.) More importently is the fact they are doing this on unprecedented scale 1 gw now and a massive pipeline of 8 GW and not all of it is in China eithere (75-80% China.)

    I also think highlighting the social responsibility of TSL and how they install off grid and are one of the few Chinese companies both publishing a sustainability report and also top places in environmental and social responsibility and its ceo who is engaged in davos talks pretty much every year is important to highlight. It is not just words as it has real meaning, for example JKS is under a lawsuit for a spill in a river some years back ago and this is still going in the courts with the result undecided. (source: http://reut.rs/ZLVXeE ) It should be mentioned in the same place that TSL together with YGE and Suntech are having a case with energyconversion devices (http://bit.ly/ZLW0Ha ) Finally regarding politics - TSL is also the leader of the chinese solar association and have a lot of say in any discussion on Solar in China due to its strong industry position both economically and politically.

    Cost wise TSL is also doing very well inhouse and is neck and neck with leader JKS. However the blended cost leaves something to be desired. YGE is doing drastic steps and cutting off 400 MW to not use OEM and this is going to show margin growth simply by not doing inhouse anymore. I hope TSL buys out the oem they are using and switches over to a more inhouse model in the future. I see this only as another great potential for the future of TSL so this is one reason I am long TSL. They are also going to lead on scale as they are pushing for a massive 5 GW of modules in 2015 almost twice the capacity of some of the other tier 1 leaders.

    The author also touches on the cash and equity position of TSL, and it is now the best among the tier 1 chinese producers closely followed by JASO. For me this is the reason I am invested in TSL and JASO and not CSIQ - CSIQ will show great earnings but they are also having around 3x the mcap of equity position - in itself not a problem in good times - but if ever bad times comes again then you want to have the companies that have high equity levels as this shield somewhat of falling too low off equity levels if market are rough. And not to mention the fact that we are not yet done with mergers and acquisitions - there has been some severe price pressure in china in q3 for tier 2 guys and I am sure some of them sadly are struggling. TSL is in the unique position that it has cash both for doing downstream, adding lots of capacity AND acquisitions. CSIQ on the other hand have great loan deals but I do not think they can grow as fast as TSL does now - CSIQ should be commended for its first move and great strategy and I am sure it will show in the stock price the coming quarters - but for the even longer term view I think TSL and JASO are going to do great as both are doing the same as CSIQ does only from a better cash/equity position to start with. One might argue it is too late - no more FiTs - but it is only recently FiTs in Japan and China are talking about reducing again (next 5 year plan of China is rumored to reduce fit to 0.6 down from 0.9 current and 1 yuan per kwh previously) and both companies have securede pipelines at favorable FiT terms (1-0,9 yuan per kwh)

    Finally I would add that for people tracking shipments with customs data Q3 should be fairly unique in using a lot of modules shipped previously. JASO commented on this in Q2 they had 40 MW shipped during Q2 that will be revenue recognized during Q3. This is due to the tariff situation in US. My guess (and its only a guess) is that TSL will have shipped some modules during Q2 that will be retained as revenue during Q3 so this will help the company from the low china prices during q3 (for 2 out of 3 months prices where low in china during Q3). Q4 the outlook now looks really good to be honest, prices are up and volumes are there so I am really looking forward to Q4 guidance in the Q3 reports.
    Oct 20, 2014. 04:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: How The Bulls Got It So Wrong [View article]
    Mark ok article and it is very fair to say the bulls got it wrong so far. In hindsight there where a lot of signs in the 10q so this should have been spotted. But the part about the company producing the furnaces is wrong. Gtat use 3rd parties for manufacturing the equipment.
    Sep 17, 2014. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    I could add I am always on the look out for fishy financials. And I have gone as far as to confirm the project sites of JKS with google earth and youtube videos where they actually show the projects on ground.

    I have no worries in JKS financial releases. This comes after reading every 6k and 20k for the last 4 years of JKS.

    Anyways back to the article. The author is pointing to many of the good things that happened during the quarter. For me personally the hedging loss was unforgiving as this was a strategy choice of JKS and it failed terrible.

    But what I truly like is the cost position (now 0.47 even with increased poly cost) the stable asp and the conference call notes about demand going forward (confirmed by the other tier1 actors in they're conference calls as well) and finally what I like the most is the massive 52% Net profit margin on projects.
    May 29, 2014. 10:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    "Do you know that the Chinese authorites do not allow SEC to interevene and protect the international investors in case a fraud happens?"

    This is wrong. The only thing that is correct about this is that some of the audit companies are barred from SEC to audit chinese companies.

    http://bit.ly/1mv4dFh

    "The ruling was made after the accounting firms' units on the mainland failed to comply with SEC orders for documents needed for a series of accounting fraud probes. The firms receiving six-month bans were Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu CPA, Ernst & Young Hua Ming, KPMG Huazhen and PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian CPAs.

    The ruling, if finalised, could impact the 425 mainland companies - with a total market capitalisation of US$185 billion - traded in New York.

    The sanctioned firms said they would appeal against the decision."

    Basically the Chinese companies would switch audit company if this ruling was finalized.

    Perhaps you would rather touch the dozens of western companies doing fraud? Enron ring a bell?
    May 29, 2014. 10:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Trina Solar Is Likely A Bad Idea [View article]
    It is only natural for account payable (raw goods for material) to grow when they are preparing for 1+ GW of shipment. As this graph will show you clearly:
    http://bit.ly/1wAgVuT

    And do not get me started on the Gordon comment as this was indeed well within guidance (2,8 GW cell) and confirming that indeed for Q3 they are well on the way to reaching guidance goals for shipments (sold out) so this was significant news and not as Gordon claims it was a none event.
    Sep 16, 2014. 01:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar: New Breakthrough And Its Implications [View article]
    Pv-magazine November issue page 45 the lead scientist of TSL confirms TSL has 300 MW of mono perc production lines and multi perc production lines coming in 2015. That is production happening right now.

    I also have a report on world cell capacity here:
    http://bit.ly/1AjMk5E

    I think 2015 will be a good year for solars and the year where a lot of projects are sold for profit for tier 1 manufacturers.
    Jan 1, 2015. 09:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SunEdison - Why It Is One Of The Best Positioned Solar Companies Globally [View article]
    You know it is a bad article when the author's argument for why a company is better than another is because it is so according to her.

    "According to me, the company is a much better buy than other solar installers like FSLR and SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY), which are concentrated mostly in USA."

    It could very well be the case but how about some hard facts instead ? As the author has the knowledge and skill to write much better articles I hope for better enlightenment in the future. Here is some facts about FSLR and SUNE:
    (Sources latest 10-Q filing)

    FSLR equity: 4793.
    FSLR Mcap: around 5000 mil usd.
    Net profit Q3: 88 mil usd.
    SUNE equity: 1279.
    SUNE Mcap: around 4800 mil usd.
    Net loss: 182 mil usd.

    Both companies have huge pipelines. Both companies are primary EPC. Sune has access to cheap polysilicon trough its ownership stake of the SUNE SEMI. FSLR has the technological edge in the current roadmaps but SUNE is also posting very interesting technological advances. Both companies sit on around 1000 mil usd cash (fslr slightly more than SUNE) but FSLR has much less debt than SUNE. SUNE not only produces modules themself but import from such suppliers as JA solar and other tier 1 chinese producers. FSLR to some small degree uses 3rd party modules but primarly produces the modules themselves.

    What is the better company? I let the reader decide. But for me as a buyer of stock I like to buy a company that is at a market value very near its equity levels. And the equity of FSLR is definitly not overvalued. Here is a rundown of me on FSLR equity in latest q3 filing:
    http://bit.ly/1weXxi3
    Nov 11, 2014. 07:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Finally Tackles Solar Support [View article]
    Author has an on purpose negative spin and does not even know basic math. (50% reduction going from 0.9 to 0.6 .......50% reduction is 0.45 yuan per kwh rate.)

    And I agree with above poster, anyone doing some real research into what cost level solar have in China will see it is very sustainable even without subsidies in a few years. And its not like western companies have had subsidies as well for for example research. Solyndra is one example of a subsidy gone bad.
    Oct 13, 2014. 02:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Can Current Shareholders Walk Away With Any Value? [View article]
    Actually hyperion have been suggested use in cancer theraphy. Nothing wrong with the hyperion patent it is still one heck of a machine.
    Oct 8, 2014. 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins [View article]
    Whats so dark spot about that Andy? They have aggressively pursued investments in solar projects and the cash-flow from this will more than cure this problem. If you have followed JKS the balance sheet has gone from worse to better really quickly so I do not expect this to be a problem going forward. Especially after the yieldco IPO if this is done successfully.

    The author also mentions the balance sheet is week currently. And if you look at his previous article he clearly writes about this problem as well.

    I found it to be a well balanced article that has some good insight into JKS as a company. And I am saying that as one who have followed it for 4 years.
    May 29, 2014. 01:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar: Can This Dog Hunt? [View article]
    Casual Analyst your reasoning is flawed. If patents make your product qualitatively different from others it is not a commodity. There is a big debate in the industry if solar panels are a commodity or not. For example look to the Greentechmedia research 2013 summit on the topic: http://bit.ly/1o1EY1s

    So to go back to what I said and compare with your examples:

    if you grow rice it is still rice sure. If you make a panel that is 10% more efficient (say 16 % absolute efficiency vs 17,6% absolute efficiency) than your neighbor but at same price then it will cut cost for the buyer, make its usage different (more suitable for rooftops power instead of on ground large scale utility etc) and I would argue it is not really the same product. (It is qualitatively different and thus fall off the definition of a commodity) Henceforth semi-commodity and my argument is valid for use. If you are a financial stable company that allows the developer to cut 10% in insurance costs then you are also selling a different product. Your selling a more financial stable product that buyers have more confidence in and that a developer can use better insurance for. (thus qualitative different.)

    Also you may note a lot of insurance companies hires inspectors to go in the factories of Chinese module manufacturers and grades the module production in quality and this gives a premium or discount on insurance for the developers who buy the product. Stuff like how where the junction box put together, how where the tabbing and stringing done (automatic?) etc. And that actually matters, its a quality concern as the lifetime of the module will be affected and even parameters of power output. So I would compare solar modules slightly more to an electronic product like a computer than I would rice.

    I think for me personally what leans me towards solar panels not a commodity is that demand for it is not the same. There is a big demand for JKS solar panels, while a lot of tier 2 & 3 players cannot see such a demand. The reasons for this is many (quality, bankability, cost, efficiency etc) but this behavior by the purchaser clearly shows that you cannot say modules are truly a commodity, because if it was then only low cost would win every single time and the tier 2&3 players would have had same sales if they had same price.

    But then again it is a true statement that solar module end product is actually power. So that is why I have said I think it is a semi-commodity. But for the investor what matters is if it is a product that will have stable prices or a product that will have swings in prices up and down. I think it is pretty clear that energy as a product is fairly stable and with increasing prices based on more and more consumption of it. So I actually expect a ride down in asp but with cost reductions as well and at some point a very stable prize point in the future once we are past the period of feed in tariffs based based solar parks.
    May 6, 2014. 05:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About JinkoSolar's Earnings [View article]
    Thank you very much for this article. I hold JKS long term as well. It is in my opinion the most value you can get out of a solar stock now in fundamentals as it is clearly undervalued by market who have not even seen yet the much stronger balance sheet it will have Q1 compared with Q4 due to share issue and bond issue done now in Q1.

    Here is my current estimates for 2014,2015 and 2016:
    http://bit.ly/1epFP6N

    I could say I have been very conservative in this estimate and also used a fully diluted share count (they would have very little debt in such a case because most debt would be converted to stocks) I have assumed high currency loss and tax loss (much more than historic) and I have even assumed delay in FiT income (actual FiT income should be higher) same with retainage. I have also assumed increased cost due to poly silicon rise, and a slightly lower reduction of cost than what they expect (could be as low as 0.44$/watt per end of 2014) - opex is also higher than what they expect (10%) of revenue. I could go on but anyway it is a conservative estimate that assumes lower ASP going forward and still JKS comes out ahead with strong value.

    I am just glad others see it too so thanks for this article.

    Anyway here is also my estimates per quarter in 2014 for jks:

    http://bit.ly/O0LmpR

    (discrepancy with 2014 number in yearly estimates is only rounding differences)
    Mar 27, 2014. 04:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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