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EysteinH's  Instablog

EysteinH
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Norwegian. Master degree in psychology. Currently studying law and working part time. Interested in stock Analyst work.
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  • Photovoltaics Investor Report December 2014 - World Cell Capacity

    Abstract

    World cell capacity was tracked for over 200 active companies and over 50 inactive companies. Companies where defined as active if they had news or pv expoes during 2013 or later. It was found an overall cell capacity of 70 GW with 41 GW located in China and 9 GW located in Taiwan. A majority of the capacity was large scale of 1 GW or more with a total of 39 GW having such large scale. The top cell producer for 2014 was Hanwha solarone and it will remain so for 2015 according to current expansion plans. We then looked at financial metrics of 8 manufacturers with 1 GW of both cell and module capacity asking the question if we where heading for storm or clear waters (meaning losses or profits). We found that as a group there where clear data indicating 2015 should have good profits as well. We then looked at the individual companies and found 2 companies who could have some "storm" in 2015 while 6 having clear waters. Finally we discussed valuations and US tariff and found some companies with surprisingly low valuations compared with earnings and equity available to the shareholder. The us tariff we concluded that even with a review in the end of 2014 for the 2012 tariff rates this would not have any effect on the situation in 2015 since there is a delay of 1 year from a review to implementation.

    Link to the report:
    drive.google.com/file/d/0B0WcxQcm29ewRDN...

    Dec 18 4:07 PM | Link | Comment!
  • BOOM, BUST OR STABLE – A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POLYSILICON SEGMENT WITH NAMEPLATE CAPACITY OF 20 COMPANIES

    I have written an article on polysilicon nameplate capacity in some companies in the industry.

    Link to pdf here.

    Link google drive pdf:

    drive.google.com/file/d/0B0WcxQcm29ewRTZ...

    Dropbox link

    www.dropbox.com/s/2vfmtirxqw5a5cx/BOOM%2...

    Version4:
    Adjustet memc capacity from 4200 to 8000 mt.

    Corrected error where wacker where represented with 49000 production in 2014 to nameplate capacity of 52000 MT.

    Corrected error on hemlock and wacker capacity in graphs of capacity.

    Put idea polysilicon from expansion in 2017 to the group of possible expansions.

    Adjusted boom&bust&stable conclusions based on new numbers.

    Disclosure: The author is long JKS.

    Jul 14 11:00 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Updated Estimates For Renewable Energy Corporation Earnings Per May 15th 2013.

    This estimate is only a current estimate because the Chinese tariffs have not been confirmed or not yet. The premises are that polysilicon prices will be kept low, EU market will not collapse at the face of tariffs, ASP in Europe will rise slightly, and finally REC will keep the 8-9% price premium of the average pvinsight reported price (as confirmed in IR meeting 2.May.) I will probably have to update this estimate again once the tariff situation plays out as this has dramatic effects on how I estimate income. What this estimate clearly will show you is that even with low ASP for polysilicon REC will have a good enough income for handling the 2014 debt. Currently REC have around 0.78$/watt and we are in the middle of q2. It is assumed that prices will increase to around 0.78$/watt on average and REC will get a 9% premium giving them 0.85$/watt.

    REC ASP per quarter for modules:
    q22013: 0,85 $ per watt
    q32013: 0,85 $ per watt
    q42013: 0,84 $ per watt
    q12014: 0,83 $ per watt
    q22014: 0,82 $ per watt

    Rec production cost per quarter (module cash cost +sg&a & r&d per watt):
    q22013: 0,66 $ per watt (0,58 + 0,08) @ profit 19 cents per watt
    q32013: 0,63 $ per watt (0,55 + 0,08) @ profit 20 cents per watt
    q42013: 0,60 $ per watt (0,52 + 0,08) @ profit 24 cents per watt
    q12014: 0,58 $ per watt (0,50 + 0,08) @ profit 25 cents per watt
    q22014: 0,55 $ per watt (0,47 + 0,08) @ profit 27 cents per watt

    REC MW shipments per quarter and EBITDA cashflow
    q22013: 205 MW shipped @ 38,95 million $ production cash flow.
    q32013: 205 MW shipped @ 41,00 million $ production cash flow.
    q42013: 205 MW shipped @ 49,20 million $ production cash flow.
    q12014: 205 MW shipped @ 51,25 million $ production cash flow.
    q22014: 205 MW shipped @ 55,35 million $ production cash flow.
    Total 235,75 million $ ~ 1350 million nok

    REC ASP per quarter for fbr polysilicon:

    (It seems REC contracts are 2/3 into a quarter so the big rise at the end of q1 will probably be reflected in q2 report, that is why I assume 17,6$/kg in q2)
    q22013: 17,60 $ per kg
    q32013: 16,00 $ per kg
    q42013: 16,00 $ per kg
    q12014: 16,00 $ per kg
    q22014: 16,00 $ per kg

    REC FBR EBITDA cost per quarter (polysilicon cash cost + sg&a & r&d per kg)
    q22013: 14,5 $ per watt (11,5 + 3) @ profit 3,1 $ per kg
    q32013: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 2,0 $ per kg
    q42013: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 2,0 $ per kg
    q12014: 14 $ per watt (12,5 + 2,5) @ profit 1 $ per kg
    q22014: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 2 $ per kg

    REC FBR MT shipments per quarter and EBITDA cashflow
    q22013: 4125 MT shipped @ 12,79 million $ profit
    q32013: 4125 MT shipped @ 8,25 million $ profit
    q42013: 4125 MT shipped @ 8,25 million $ profit
    q12014: 4125 MT shipped @ 4,13 million $ profit
    q22014: 4125 MT shipped @ 8,25 million $ profit
    Total 41,67 million $ ~ 239 million nok
    Float zone, Electronic grade, simens sg, off spec and silane gass sales:
    Total cash flow profit from these volumes has varied between 80-150 million nok in the last quarters. I expect the cashflow from these products to be around 55,72 million nok (10 million $) giving a total of 50 million $ during the next 5 quarters. (286,36 million nok positive cashflow.) In additional there could be a potential cash flow of 16 million $ (91 mil nok) from a tax settlement. source:http://www.columbiabasinherald.com/politics/article_4297eee8-7d33-11e2-8daa-001a4bcf887a.html?mode=jqm

    Total all cashflow: 343,42 million $ ~ 1967 million nok.

    Capex estimated for period 2013 q2-q4: 35 million $. 2014 q1-q2: 30 mil $. Total: 65 mil $ ~ 372 mil nok.

    Interest rate for period 2013 q2-q4: 40 million $. 2014 q1-q2: 30 mil $. Total: 70 mil $ ~ 401 mil nok.

    Profit before taxes: 208,42 mil $ ~ 1194 mil nok.

    Debt maturing in 2014 is 331 mil $ ~ 1900 mil nok. Cash and cash equivalents is ~ 1600 mil nok. Rec needs around 500-600 MNOK in cash balance. They therefore need to earn 800 MNOK ~ 139 mil $ in the period q2 2013 to q2 2014. The calculations show that even with very low polysilicon prices this is easily achievable.

    Tags: REC, Solar
    May 15 6:49 AM | Link | Comment!
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