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EysteinH's  Instablog

EysteinH
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Norwegian. Master degree in psychology. Currently studying law and working part time. Interested in stock Analyst work.
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  • Solar Installation Numbers 2012: France, US, Germany, UK, Italy, Belgium, Greece And Canada

    2012:

    France from january to march: 309MW

    US january to march: 506MW

    Germany january to april: 2328MW

    UK Jan-April: 116MW * Not published anywhere, used official source*

    Italy Jan-May: 410MW * Not published anywhere, used official source*

    Belgium Jan-May: 301 * Not published anywhere, used official source*

    Greece:Jan-March 53MW

    Australia:Jan-March 133MW * Not published anywhere, used official source*

    Canada:Jan-March 67 MW* Not published anywhere, used official source*

    Sources:

    UK:www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistic...

    Italy:www.gse.it/it/Conto%20Energia/Risultati%...

    Germany:www.bundesnetzagentur.de/cln_1911/DE/Sac...

    US:seia.org/cs/research/SolarInsight

    Belgium:www.vreg.be/halfjaarlijkse-statistieken-...

    (total 2011: www.vreg.be/sites/default/files/uploads/...)

    2012:www.vreg.be/sites/default/files/uploads/...

    australia:ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Forms-an...

    Canada:
    fit.powerauthority.on.ca/bi-weekly-fit-a...

    Greece:

    www.pv-tech.org/news/greece_increases_pv...

    Jun 15 4:51 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Solar Cost Comparison: Production Cost And Added The Operational Expense Cost (Opex)

    For this article we will look at: Renewable Energy Corporation (REC) a Norwegian solar stock. Yingli Solar (NYSE:YGE) , Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), China Sunergy (NASDAQ:CSUN), and Hanwha SolarOne (HSOL).

    Debt of REC from Q42011 to Q12012:
    Interest bearing debt (short+long) q4 2011: 1032 mil $ (6300 mil NOK) Q12012: 999 mil $
    Cash and cash equivalents q4: 261 mil $ q1: 308 mil $
    Less debt, more cash.

    Debt of Yingli from Q42011 to Q12012:
    Interest bearing debt (short+long) Q42011:1855,3 mil $ Q12012: 1936,5
    Cash and Restricted Cash Q42011: 891.9 Q12012: 674.7
    Increased debt, less cash.

    Debt of Trina from Q42011 to Q12012:
    Interest bearing debt (short+long) Q42011: 909.6 mil $ Q12012: $1,020.4 mil $
    Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash Q42011:896.4 mil $ Q12012: $748.3 mil $$
    Increased debt, reduced cash.

    Debt of CSUN from q42011 to 2012:
    Cash and cash equivalents Q42011: 209.5 mil $ Q12012:233.2
    Interest bearing debt (short+long) Q42011: 475,1 mil $ Q12012: 460,3 mil $

    Increased cash, reduced debt slightly.

    Debt of Hanwha Solarone from Q42011 to 2012:
    Cash and cash equivalents Q42011: 314 mil $ Q12012: 303.1 mil $
    Interest bearing debt (short+long) Q42011: 613 mil $ Q12012:534,7 mil $

    Slightly less cash, less debt.

    Time to take a look at another cost of modules, the operational expense (opex):

    The theory behind this value metric is to spread the operational costs thare are not one time across the modules shipped for that quarter. That gives an idea on how effective sale channels, adminstration etc is and how much added cost these type of operational expenses add to the modules per watt.

    First a summary of the findings:

    CompanyProduction costopex costs in mil $Average sale prices (ASPshipments q1
    Rec1,022,920,98Shipments 191MW
    Yingli0,8760,30,96*Shipments 520MW*
    Trina0,8658,10,92Shipments 380MW
    China Sunergy0,85*18,80,86Shipments 79,9MW
    Hanwha Solarone0,92*23,170,83Shipments 160,7MW

    *shipments calculated shipments based on revenue/ASP
    *ASP Yingli calculated on gross margin adjusted for one time effects. (11,5 % adjusted gross margin)
    *China Sunergy cost: ASP*1-gross profit margin)
    *Hanwha solarone production cost if only using internal wafers 0.78

    We can then compare producers at production cost and then also add opex cost to compare them:

    CompanyProduction + opexProduction cost
    Rec1,121
    Yingli0,990,87
    Trina1,010,86
    China sunergy1,080,85
    Hanwa solarone1,060,92

    Note:
    Opex is adjusted for one time effect where possible.

    Sources:
    Yingli Solar q1:
    media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/...
    ir.yinglisolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=21301...=

    Trina Solar q1 phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=...

    ir.trinasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=206405...=
    http://ir.trinasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=206405&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1664310&highlight

    China Sunergy q1 chinasunergy.investorroom.com/file.php/1...

    REC q1 www.recgroup.com/PageFiles/156/Investor_...

    Hanwa Solarone files.shareholder.com/downloads/SOLF/189...

    http://investors.hanwha-solarone.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=678001

    http://investors.hanwha-solarone.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=657438

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I am long in REC in the Norwegian stock exchange.

    Jun 05 8:14 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • An Historical Prognosis Of Rec Cash Flow Q2 2012 Until Q1 2013

    First the results of the historical prognosis:

    - REC SOLAR -

    World average prices per quarter:

    q12012: 0,90 $ per watt. - OK - (adjustet for current euro/dollar values)

    q22012: 0,81 $ per watt. / -10% /

    q32012: 0,77 $ per watt. / - 5% /

    q42012: 0,73 $ per watt. / - 5% /

    q12013: 0,69 $ per watt / -5 % /

    Rec ASP per quarter:

    q12012: 1 $ per watt. - OK - (adjustet for current euro/dollar values)

    q22012: 0,89 $ per watt. / -10% /

    q32012: 0,85 $ per watt. / - 5% /

    q42012: 0,80 $ per watt. / - 5% /

    q12013: 0,76 $ per watt / - 5% /

    Rec production cost per quarter:

    (not included deprecation)

    q12012: 0,97 $ per watt. - OK - (adjustet for current euro/dollar values)

    q22012: 0,87 $ per watt. / -10% /

    q32012: 0,78 $ per watt. / -10% /

    q42012: 0,72 $ per watt. / -5 % /

    q12013: 0,68 $ per watt / - 5 % /

    Rec cashflow margin per quarter:

    q12012: 3% / 3 cents per watt /

    q22012: 2,2% / 2 cents per watt /

    q32012: 8,2% / 7 cents per watt /

    q42012: 10% / 8 cents per watt /

    q12013: 10,5%/ 8 cents per watt /

    Rec cashflow at 160 MW sold:

    q22012: 3,2 mil $ / 2 cents per watt /

    q32012: 11,2 mil $ / 7 cents per watt /

    q42012: 12,8 mil $ / 8 cents per watt /

    q12013: 12,8 mil $ / 8 cents per watt /

    - REC SILICON FBR A-

    Rec ASP per quarter:

    Q12012: 30/24? $ per KG

    q22012: 24$ per KG / 0% /

    q32012: 23$ per KG / - 4% /

    q42012: 22$ per KG / - 4% /

    q12012: 23$ per kg / + 4% /

    Rec production cost per quarter:

    (not included deprecation)

    q12012: 15,5 $ PER KG. - OK -

    q22012: 15,0 $ PER KG / -3,2% /

    q32012: 14,5 $ PER KG / -3,3% /

    q42012: 14,0 $ PER KG / -3,4% /

    Q12013: 13,5$ PER KG / -3,5% /

    Rec cashflow margin per quarter:

    q12012: 35,4 / 8,5$per kg /

    q22012: 37,5% / 9 $ per kg /

    q32012: 36,9% / 8,5$per kg /

    q42012: 36,3% / 8 $ per kg /

    q12013: 41,3% / 9,5 $ per kg /

    Rec cashflow t 3650000 KG sold

    q22012: 32,9 mil $ / 9 $ per kg /

    q32012: 31,0 mil $ / 8,5$per kg/

    q42012: 29,2 mil $ / 8 $ per kg /

    q12013: 34,7 mil $ / 9,5$perkg /

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I am long in REC on the Norwegian stock exchange.

    Jun 03 7:01 AM | Link | Comment!
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