SoundView Technology Group's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/9020/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1429001/comments?source=feed#comment-18831981 18831981
Many hands in the till worry me a bit more than their ability to expand at this point. ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 21:49:56 -0400
Many hands in the till worry me a bit more than their ability to expand at this point. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1429001/comments?source=feed#comment-18831751 18831751 Tue, 14 May 2013 21:43:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1383391/comments?source=feed#comment-18484211 18484211 Mon, 06 May 2013 07:09:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1383391/comments?source=feed#comment-18410701 18410701
Secondly stocks are indeed an expectations/realty proposition. You make or lose money by exploiting this relationship. There is probably an expectation that margins will start to trend up (instead they are trending down) so the stock will probably not do much until it finds a price that doesn't reflect that expectation ($150?) or the company starts delivering more profitability with a path to more of the same.]]> Fri, 03 May 2013 13:07:22 -0400
Secondly stocks are indeed an expectations/realty proposition. You make or lose money by exploiting this relationship. There is probably an expectation that margins will start to trend up (instead they are trending down) so the stock will probably not do much until it finds a price that doesn't reflect that expectation ($150?) or the company starts delivering more profitability with a path to more of the same.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1383391/comments?source=feed#comment-18362301 18362301
Amazon has a few other elements like digital goods and hosted services (which is also partially business process outsourcing) that will grow and can add to margins over time.

Like I said before institutional growth investors appreciate Amazon for their management team, strong execution and long-term success. So they own it. At the same time margins and valuation matters. Again the point is that we are probably at a point where either 1) margins need to start trending up, or 2) the stock will face some serious headwinds.

Other than moderating the revenue growth in my base case to account for more saturation in developing markets I'm content to stand by the base case and wait to see if the shares come into a more attractive price range.]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 12:44:31 -0400
Amazon has a few other elements like digital goods and hosted services (which is also partially business process outsourcing) that will grow and can add to margins over time.

Like I said before institutional growth investors appreciate Amazon for their management team, strong execution and long-term success. So they own it. At the same time margins and valuation matters. Again the point is that we are probably at a point where either 1) margins need to start trending up, or 2) the stock will face some serious headwinds.

Other than moderating the revenue growth in my base case to account for more saturation in developing markets I'm content to stand by the base case and wait to see if the shares come into a more attractive price range.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1383391/comments?source=feed#comment-18347331 18347331
I think many long-term growth and technology investors view Amazon as a must-own and would need a big fundamental reason to not have a long position. I suspect many firms who "trade around" their positions trim at levels like this. However they also probably have slightly better information about upcoming company plans than many here on Seeking Alpha.]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 08:06:42 -0400
I think many long-term growth and technology investors view Amazon as a must-own and would need a big fundamental reason to not have a long position. I suspect many firms who "trade around" their positions trim at levels like this. However they also probably have slightly better information about upcoming company plans than many here on Seeking Alpha.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1383391/comments?source=feed#comment-18345181 18345181
I do allow to some degree for the law of large numbers to reduce the rate of growth over time (to 15%) but even so the base case may be too optimistic. Some folks I know, including me, spend a very large portion of their discretionary "stuff" budget with Amazon already. In fact I don't think Amazon can get any more market share from me - revenues will fluctuate with my spending. To be fair I think developed economies and a kind of tech-savvy audience is only one segment.

Some developed economies (like Europe for example) are still early in the their adoption and use of Amazon. If they execute well internationally (I am not sure they have proven to be exceptionally good or bad so far in that area) then these growth numbers would be very doable.

I can't redo my models right now but the market penetration argument makes me incrementally less positive on the base case scenario and makes me inclined toward the stock only at the $150-$175 level. Of course there may be new developments at any time, Amazon keeps moving...]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 06:20:40 -0400
I do allow to some degree for the law of large numbers to reduce the rate of growth over time (to 15%) but even so the base case may be too optimistic. Some folks I know, including me, spend a very large portion of their discretionary "stuff" budget with Amazon already. In fact I don't think Amazon can get any more market share from me - revenues will fluctuate with my spending. To be fair I think developed economies and a kind of tech-savvy audience is only one segment.

Some developed economies (like Europe for example) are still early in the their adoption and use of Amazon. If they execute well internationally (I am not sure they have proven to be exceptionally good or bad so far in that area) then these growth numbers would be very doable.

I can't redo my models right now but the market penetration argument makes me incrementally less positive on the base case scenario and makes me inclined toward the stock only at the $150-$175 level. Of course there may be new developments at any time, Amazon keeps moving...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1383391/comments?source=feed#comment-18282531 18282531
As I outline here there are several "prevailing winds" for Amazon, some of which expand margins, some of which don't. The company generated $4B of cash in the TTM and has reinvested all of it. I agree that there may be a time when investors become less patient with the long-term plan and that is why I put the valuation work together. I don't think the risk/reward looks compelling at $250 but I would at $150.

I do think that the company is at a key period where operating margin has to begin to trend back up to support the share price. I don't think it will be a "V" recovery but I think they may get it going back in the right direction.

I've read mostly every article and report on Amazon and I think we can all agree that the company keeps their cards fairly close to the vest which opens up lots of opportunity for strong opinions and different interpretations about "what's really going on."

We're only trying to do our part and shed a little more light and analysis on the topic.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 15:23:03 -0400
As I outline here there are several "prevailing winds" for Amazon, some of which expand margins, some of which don't. The company generated $4B of cash in the TTM and has reinvested all of it. I agree that there may be a time when investors become less patient with the long-term plan and that is why I put the valuation work together. I don't think the risk/reward looks compelling at $250 but I would at $150.

I do think that the company is at a key period where operating margin has to begin to trend back up to support the share price. I don't think it will be a "V" recovery but I think they may get it going back in the right direction.

I've read mostly every article and report on Amazon and I think we can all agree that the company keeps their cards fairly close to the vest which opens up lots of opportunity for strong opinions and different interpretations about "what's really going on."

We're only trying to do our part and shed a little more light and analysis on the topic.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1383391/comments?source=feed#comment-18282251 18282251 Tue, 30 Apr 2013 15:17:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379291/comments?source=feed#comment-18241271 18241271 LEDS) has really been popping. I had a glance at it and they have substantially negative *gross* margins. Lots of cash on the balance sheet although it's declining at a rapid clip.

Gold rush indeed!]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 16:35:44 -0400 LEDS) has really been popping. I had a glance at it and they have substantially negative *gross* margins. Lots of cash on the balance sheet although it's declining at a rapid clip.

Gold rush indeed!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/5797671-cinedigm-closes-195-million-in-two-new-credit-facilities-to-refinance-all-existing-phase-1-senior-debt-and-corporate-debt?source=feed#comment-15698691 15698691
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 13:42:31 -0500
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1211441/comments?source=feed#comment-15463451 15463451
Thanks for your comment.]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2013 06:05:05 -0500
Thanks for your comment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1211441/comments?source=feed#comment-15463421 15463421 Mon, 25 Feb 2013 06:03:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1211441/comments?source=feed#comment-15463401 15463401 Mon, 25 Feb 2013 05:59:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1146631/comments?source=feed#comment-14574771 14574771
I can't say anything about the "universes" comment but I can say that being able to solve up to 512 simultaneous equations in one machine cycle is a big deal.

In many ways the stock itself *is* is an option on some of this albeit with an underlying book value and steady accumulation prospects. So I don't know that I'd want to put a timeframe on my investment using conventional options.

Outside of owning the common the option strategy I might look at is selling call options with premium near the stock price and putting some of that into further out calls. You could also add a leg with selling put options at or near NAV. I haven't looked at the options market around TINY or done the math but those are strategies I'd evaluate with an open eye toward others. ]]> Tue, 05 Feb 2013 03:58:52 -0500
I can't say anything about the "universes" comment but I can say that being able to solve up to 512 simultaneous equations in one machine cycle is a big deal.

In many ways the stock itself *is* is an option on some of this albeit with an underlying book value and steady accumulation prospects. So I don't know that I'd want to put a timeframe on my investment using conventional options.

Outside of owning the common the option strategy I might look at is selling call options with premium near the stock price and putting some of that into further out calls. You could also add a leg with selling put options at or near NAV. I haven't looked at the options market around TINY or done the math but those are strategies I'd evaluate with an open eye toward others. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1050341/comments?source=feed#comment-12421821 12421821 Sun, 09 Dec 2012 14:03:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1050341/comments?source=feed#comment-12388361 12388361
So far the company and management have been a little variable owing to the model and investors have to figure out what kind of discount to put on variable nature of the dividend.

I think the way to think about/own this name is to focus on a fairly negative case and be comfortable with say a 6-7% yield. That's not a bad start. Then if they have a good quarter or maybe even two or three together you get extra dividend and share appreciation.

When high expectations start to find their way into this stock I'd look for the exits.]]> Sat, 08 Dec 2012 02:30:27 -0500
So far the company and management have been a little variable owing to the model and investors have to figure out what kind of discount to put on variable nature of the dividend.

I think the way to think about/own this name is to focus on a fairly negative case and be comfortable with say a 6-7% yield. That's not a bad start. Then if they have a good quarter or maybe even two or three together you get extra dividend and share appreciation.

When high expectations start to find their way into this stock I'd look for the exits.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/896801/comments?source=feed#comment-11371651 11371651 MDT) then I think you need to dig into the potential disaster outlined by Bronte Capital - http://bit.ly/Qr62bc

[No positions or relationships here, just my 2c.]]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 11:09:31 -0500 MDT) then I think you need to dig into the potential disaster outlined by Bronte Capital - http://bit.ly/Qr62bc

[No positions or relationships here, just my 2c.]]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/844551/comments?source=feed#comment-9291051 9291051 Mon, 10 Sep 2012 16:46:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/854441/comments?source=feed#comment-9215561 9215561 Sat, 08 Sep 2012 01:38:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/587041/comments?source=feed#comment-9215231 9215231
The whole affair makes me think two things:

1) Saying that "we're embedded!" doesn't mean as much as it used to.

2) Apple forms long-term partnerships rarely and buys the company. Everything else is temporary.

Noise canceling technology has been around for a long time and I wonder how much unique IP ADNC really has. As a company they are in a tough spot. Maybe Samsung or Nokia will come to the rescue and buy them. Otherwise the management team will really be tested here.

I think the class action shareholder lawsuit is bogus. Unless there is a letter from Apple somewhere dated before September it's going to be hard to prove "knowledge."

Rough day in the shares although they did bounce back a little over the course of the day..]]> Sat, 08 Sep 2012 01:04:45 -0400
The whole affair makes me think two things:

1) Saying that "we're embedded!" doesn't mean as much as it used to.

2) Apple forms long-term partnerships rarely and buys the company. Everything else is temporary.

Noise canceling technology has been around for a long time and I wonder how much unique IP ADNC really has. As a company they are in a tough spot. Maybe Samsung or Nokia will come to the rescue and buy them. Otherwise the management team will really be tested here.

I think the class action shareholder lawsuit is bogus. Unless there is a letter from Apple somewhere dated before September it's going to be hard to prove "knowledge."

Rough day in the shares although they did bounce back a little over the course of the day..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/825411/comments?source=feed#comment-9103571 9103571 Wed, 05 Sep 2012 08:52:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/839601/comments?source=feed#comment-8970901 8970901
Your table shows combined revenues of $10B but with a loss of $1.2B. If a few players would be taken out or folded up then we might see a more profitable industry. Right now it looks too much like DRAM to me. ]]> Fri, 31 Aug 2012 04:26:08 -0400
Your table shows combined revenues of $10B but with a loss of $1.2B. If a few players would be taken out or folded up then we might see a more profitable industry. Right now it looks too much like DRAM to me. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/839731/comments?source=feed#comment-8970841 8970841
Back then many feared that Amazon would face stiff competition in their core business that would limit their success. Turned out that Amazon one. Who competes with them in their core business (selling stuff online?)

Amazon does have competition of course but they are coming in adjacent areas like tablets/mobile and to some extent goods and services as they go digital. (Netflix for example as a substitute for buying a DVD.)

There's a trading pattern and valuation argument that says the shares might drop from here but the fundamentals remain very solid and the company has executed better than anyone in their industry. (I agree that the recent bull$#!t around Kindle sales is getting tiresome but that's really a PR/marketing issue.)]]> Fri, 31 Aug 2012 04:18:09 -0400
Back then many feared that Amazon would face stiff competition in their core business that would limit their success. Turned out that Amazon one. Who competes with them in their core business (selling stuff online?)

Amazon does have competition of course but they are coming in adjacent areas like tablets/mobile and to some extent goods and services as they go digital. (Netflix for example as a substitute for buying a DVD.)

There's a trading pattern and valuation argument that says the shares might drop from here but the fundamentals remain very solid and the company has executed better than anyone in their industry. (I agree that the recent bull$#!t around Kindle sales is getting tiresome but that's really a PR/marketing issue.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/835491/comments?source=feed#comment-8931191 8931191 Thu, 30 Aug 2012 07:25:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/835491/comments?source=feed#comment-8898681 8898681 Wed, 29 Aug 2012 11:24:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/822381/comments?source=feed#comment-8682761 8682761
Two things - 1) Amazon Prime was brilliant and helped not just Amazon but the whole market. EBay finally figured it out and acquired GSI Commerce to try and do this too. Consumers pay an annual fee for basically making Amazon their defacto choice for buying any product that is offered there.

2) Margins matter and Amazon probably will have to do something. As a big Prime user since day 1 there are some options that would work. The first is to just compute two fees for shipping. They already do this for Prime with two day (free) and next day ($3.99). Taking this a step further and showing something like shipping: Two Day - Prime $0.99, Regular $5.99, Next Day - Prime $4.99, Regular $15.99. Even if this is item-dependent the message is pretty clear and the $79 value is easy to see if you buy even once a month.

One final point - higher energy costs apply to driving to the store as well. Google helpfully gives you a fuel cost as part of directions. Consumers have learned that driving extra miles to save a few dollars is dumb if gas is expensive.

Amazon may be a very expensive stock but they will figure this one out.]]> Thu, 23 Aug 2012 04:13:39 -0400
Two things - 1) Amazon Prime was brilliant and helped not just Amazon but the whole market. EBay finally figured it out and acquired GSI Commerce to try and do this too. Consumers pay an annual fee for basically making Amazon their defacto choice for buying any product that is offered there.

2) Margins matter and Amazon probably will have to do something. As a big Prime user since day 1 there are some options that would work. The first is to just compute two fees for shipping. They already do this for Prime with two day (free) and next day ($3.99). Taking this a step further and showing something like shipping: Two Day - Prime $0.99, Regular $5.99, Next Day - Prime $4.99, Regular $15.99. Even if this is item-dependent the message is pretty clear and the $79 value is easy to see if you buy even once a month.

One final point - higher energy costs apply to driving to the store as well. Google helpfully gives you a fuel cost as part of directions. Consumers have learned that driving extra miles to save a few dollars is dumb if gas is expensive.

Amazon may be a very expensive stock but they will figure this one out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/476831/comments?source=feed#comment-8643251 8643251 Wed, 22 Aug 2012 03:47:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/760211/comments?source=feed#comment-7926081 7926081 Mon, 30 Jul 2012 15:15:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/760211/comments?source=feed#comment-7908291 7908291 Mon, 30 Jul 2012 03:49:25 -0400