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  • The Fed's Last Waltz [View article]
    Great point at the end regarding equity markets and fiscal decision making. Bottom line is QE is NOT helping the real economy, it did originally, by helping heal the banking system. But now, it's simply taking money from the middle class and giving it to the wealthiest. What's worse, I hear Bernanke more or less admit 2 things that should horrify investors 1) QE really can't do anything about real wages or real employment (good paying full-time jobs)-which of course begs the question why he's doing it 2) he's not really sure what the potential unintended consequences are of QE. He's just sure that he can control one of the potential intended consequences: high headline effectively crashing the market. If that's sound monetary policy, then I'm the greatest fool.
    Sep 19, 2013. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Larry Summers Ruin The Fed's Independence? [View article]
    The most important actor in risk markets today is the Fed, not JPM or Wells Fargo. If the Fed came out tomorrow and said QE is over and that they were aggressively liquidating their $3T portfolio, it would more than likely crash markets globally, and precipitate a massive global recession. So the idea that the Fed is really just the back-office settlement system for large banks is a little too quaint to be taken seriously.
    Aug 30, 2013. 09:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worst Jobs Report Since April 2009? [View article]
    Excellent article, which have become all too rare on this site. I think there could be some potential benefit to the broader economy to having more people working, even if total hours are the same? But overall I agree with the author's analysis and conclusions. I also concur it's curious how the market reacts, overreacts really, to the data. It is at BEST a good guess, yet the market seems to live and die by it.
    May 3, 2013. 12:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Does The Full Ponzi [View article]
    I like Cullen's posts but he seems uneven on monetary policy. Perhaps I'm not grasping the subtlety of his ideas. He seems to think large US budget deficits funded by money printing are not only reasonable, but advisable. Yet he scoffs when Japan does basically the same thing. Either monetary debasement IS a reasonable economic policy, with tangible benefits to the broader economy, or it isn't. To say, "it's ok if used to fund govt largesse, but not ok when used to juice the stock market" seems a trivial distinction. In fact, you would expect the latter case should be preferable, at least the money is funneled into the private sector (in theory more efficient). I guess he could be objecting to the use of an actual price target, but that seems to be criticizing someone for being too honest.
    Feb 13, 2013. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There (Still) Is No Crisis In Spain, Or Europe [View article]
    This sort of relative value argument is overused on WS. Because they can't say, "take you're money and go home" they always speak in terms of relative value. Bottom line is we have a debt crisis, and the smaller nations with lower growth rates are going to bear the brunt of it, much as in a bear market small cap names get hit harder than large caps. Whenever the market stabilizes, the premise that spain will be positioned to grow faster than say greece is probably reasonable, but that's not a reason to try to catch this falling knife.
    May 8, 2012. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment