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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Yep, kinda fun, too. I was trailing User 7 by .02% an hour ago so I went in and took some small profits on the high ones and added to several little dippers with the proceeds.

    I am now up to #4 and as a Virtual Mini Hedge Fund Club Sub Account Mgr. I would now be eligible to collect management fees for 6% of all funds allocated to default scenario 1-4.20.2015 vs 5%, a 20% increase.

    Based on the .001% fee structure on the $1000 total Fund Commitment Profile to date (5 participants @200ea) if all went all in I would now have $60 under management and then so am on track to earn a 1 cent bonus on a projected $12 profit, rounding up to the nearest cent.

    And some people still think this is complicated, sheesh!
    Apr 20, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    PS I did some back of the envelope calcs allocations vs success rates, came up with total ave yield of composite sythetic IPO @+8.33% since inception, thats 1% a month since started in Aug. That's about what I would shoot for as a good yield on a demonstrably low to no risk proposition.
    Apr 19, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Hey, I'm an advocate of Progressive Capitalism.

    I hope to be in a higher income/tax bracket next year, lol!
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    OK I'm just playing around with the allocations, I looked at the top 9 who are in the green. If I put $100 in my own self managed account and then added another $100 I could spread the 2nd $100 as follows, IAW the allocations of the rankings of all winning participants :

    1-15%
    2-10%
    3-9%
    4-6%
    5-5%
    6-4%
    7-3%
    8-2%
    9-1%

    This allocation breakdown puts 25% on the top 2, 15% on the next 2, and a total of 15% for the last 5 winners, total allocation $55, $45 in reserve.

    This is just a start; if you liked Spock's 3D Chess game, you should love Musical Chairs Mahjong.
    
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    IT I don't think you completely misunderstand.

    While I did not appear in cameo on an a late nite informercial last night, I have performed as the proverbial one man band, served my time as HOA President, volunteered for more than one political campaign and causes, as well as having contributed to varying degrees the success of a number of programs which I shall not discuss due to proprietary and related restrictions to free speech and or the lack thereof.

    But to the point. Yes, simpler is better. It should be very easy to start an Investment Club.

    I opened a personal account with a live brokerage firm last week for a total investment of less than $200.

    There are numerous other outfits with the same basic functions.

    It would be quite simple to create a club, collect dues and allow each member to have total control of his own funds with the option of allocating according to his own free will some, none, or all, of his assets to the TBD IPO Club Fund of his choice.

    To keep it simple each member can decide how to manage his own funds according to any one or more of a number of possible combinations to be decided either singly or in combination with one or more other members.

    For instance, by mutual consent and with the agreement of affected members, I would consider allocating an amount equal to 15% of my above initial deposit funds to a subaccount managed as a direct reflection of the investments in JBT's account, 10% according to cbomans, and 5% according to user 7's format.

    I would recommend that others in the group consider as much as a nominal 4% using the EA approach.

    I would be hard pressed to consider it unwise to go say 2-3% for SSLP, OW, or Carlton Ritz just because of the nice brand name appeal if nothing else.

    Further, I would be willing to go 1% each for Newbie Trader and Crade because a) I don't think I'll lose anything and b) I want to keep them in the game.

    That said, in the interest of KISS, each member shall have the option of depositing his funds in a refundable account with no obligation to allocate anything by group dictate, that is unless we want to impose some sort of low cost admin fee like Vanguard at say .001% to start with, any cost increased to be approved by the governing board.

    By the way, hat tip to Mr Bowman, I did a little research on CMG and the more I learn, the more I like the company.

    I will be looking at the possibility of establishing an entry position in my own RLP using options over the next several days.

    http://chip.tl/1bcLZIV
    Apr 19, 2015. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    CMG PRTY

    http://bit.ly/1yIpmHp
    Apr 19, 2015. 01:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    IT You know Eli Hoffman is expanding the envelope with the Contrarian Contributor Contest, meanwhile Chris DeMuth helps create a spinoff revenue source via a plan to get 1,000 subscribers for 1,000 a year for a total research budget subsidy of $1M/yr. for the ultra high net worth investor community.

    I would humbly suggest that we are operating at the very opposite end of the investment community at the $0 revenue vs $0 risk capital model.

    If we were to create an Investment Club with an initiation fee of even $100 we would have $2500 that we could manage as a group and provide real time data to demonstrate the value of crowd sourcing at the entry level end of the investor demographic profile.

    With the current low limit of investment capital required to participate in an SA competition we have shown that the market space for those willing to compete for ranking absent a corresponding monetary value is a small subset of the 4m & growing SA community.

    By gradually raising the bar we will be able to measure the lower bound of the optimal range which at present is an undetermined constant.

    I would suggest the experiment proceed under the thesis that $0 capital risk is suboptimal and start a graduated process to begin a contest with a small but actual monetary value to first establish that the market space will grow when there is real money on the line.

    Onc't this initial thesis is proven or disproven it will then be possible to determine whether a higher threshold for Club Membership Initiation Portfolio Operation (IPO) is feasible.

    http://bit.ly/1bbYRz3
    Apr 19, 2015. 01:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Now if we had the three best reasons to buy each one maybe a volunteer could fill in the blanks based on a sketchy outline. Something like 1. Who doesn't like tacos? 2.Their tacos are really good 3. Demand for good tacos is better than expected. 4. We are a credible source of opinion on Taco stands.

    Maybe some fundamentals like demand up x% PE up .5X% over T, profit potential Y% a month based on projected Z% growth over a defined period.

    Provide some authoritative sources and convincing sales rhetoric generate clicks and comments and schedule the 1st Annual JBT Go Away In May & BBQ with Elvis Bash.

    PS I'd bet ITs lunch that OW knows all about the special ingredients in the secret sauce that brings them back for more and exactly how many big orders are in the pipeline.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Thanks JB, I was hoping for a good lead.

    The contrarian twist could be something like "Here's a tip : Forget the gimmicks. Pick a solid blue chip and buy on the dip.

    Or cut to the quick with "Be unique, stick with the basics."
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    There's something to that, OAG.

    The experiments I ran for the challenge tell me that the 3x mix goes up fast in fair weather but at the first hint of a barometric pressure change it becomes unstable quickly.

    I'm finding it more useful as a low cost early warning system as my real portfolio is very stable and moves like molasses and won't let you know the ice is thin 'til you break through support, so I find the portfolio challenge helps me know better how to anticipate needed adjustment as the underlying conditions of the tectonic plates below are hard to see without the sensitive seismographic data via the 3x motion detector.
    Apr 16, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Hey, mines up 4% on the week, still only #4 of 2 though!

    So, where's the best contrarian pick writeup from the triple crown duo?
    Apr 16, 2015. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    "Hypothetically, someone could write a long idea on a stock at its all-time high and explain why the market 'still' hasn't priced in the stock's prospects."

    I'm just reviewing the ground rules here and it occurs to me that there is one stock I am very familiar with that has run up 600% in recent years and which has recently stabilized on what I would categorize as profit taking on anecdotal evidence that it has run its course.

    I haven't dug into it in any detail, but I did see a report headline that indicates at least one analyst who presents an argument that says its only halfway to where its going based on nominal P/E.

    This one could be a sleeper and I do know this one quite well myself so it would be fairly easy to check the analysts results and see what else makes sense.

    If he's only 10% right that were only halfway there his projection that's another 60% or so on the upside and I do have reason to believe the friendly trend is still alive and well.

    http://bit.ly/1J5o09r
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    Maybe this belongs in the Sports Section?

    http://bit.ly/1aXH2Ui
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    I was thinking about both, but looking at the contest rules I am fairly certain that a straight stock pick would have a better chance of winning.

    And I do still have that one little share of FTNT left in my VP, up 33%, still my best performer by far.

    As I am sure you will recall, I saw mention of it by both you and OW and added it to my portfolio just because I figured if both of you thought it was a good one it was worth some virtual bucks.

    Anyway, there is a start of a story there but that's the extent of my DD.

    I would be willing to pitch in further to help move the bean along, but I'd say it is up to the two of you to decide if you want anyone else involved.

    That said, I think it would be a great group project especially if we could get organized and make some seed money to manage under the IT & Crew Banner.

    But be forewarned that if I were to be elected Treasurer, I would promote the idea of significant distributions in the form of resort oriented junkets with good food and music which of course constitutes counting chickens before they hatch, which is something I'm actually fairly talented at, by the way, even if I do say so myself..

    So, how about a show of hands?
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 116 !!! [View instapost]
    IT & Crew

    Anybody here think there is anything that has been developed for the Challenge that is worth writing up, SSLP for instance? $5,000 is a pretty tempting prize if anyone wants full credit. It would be a nice down payment for the IT Mutual Benefit Society IPO Fund even if it were split it up 2-14 ways.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 15, 2015. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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