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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    I see where Bill Gross is now applying Monopoly Logic, I've applied some more Majong Massage to mine.

    I took some profits & trimmed laggards on TLT FTNT SBUX SPY and shifted into more aggressive performers on the dip namely DAL JBLU ALK HA.

    There is a lot of up and down movement especially on the cheaper ones which helps ladder up while maintaining a good balance with a heavy counter weight of TMF.

    Its been working nicely, with strong Bond response to dips and take another breath on the downstroke followed by a nice push up on with the higher weights on strength.
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    TMF 27.34%
    TLT 19.87%
    KR 18.87%
    FTNT 14.23%
    DAL 13.75%
    ELNK 13.14%
    SBUX 12.39%
    TMUS 8.52%
    JBLU 7.33%
    IVV 3.94%
    VOO 3.92%
    SPY 2.85%
    ALK 1.18%
    QQQ 0.89%
    DIA 0.39%
    VTI -0.08%
    GOOG -2.40%
    DXJ -11.55%
    HA -11.87%
    IBM -12.27%
    HES -17.50%
    HYLD -22.05%
    SDRL -51.49%
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    I like to understand enough about certain subjects to know why something is not a good idea but also why it is a bad idea.

    There are enough half baked theories out there that if you read enough after a while you see the consistencies in the logic as well as the lack thereof.

    The link you shared today included enough information to see that the unwashed ones were addressing real social problems attributable in part to all the wealth and capital being concentrated in a few hands while laborers were both destitute and unfree. Yes we have hardship today but the middle class has both property political clout as well as participation in the workforce, something that was in short supply at any level of comparison. So why some people are so scared of the idea that the workers should have rights and own property and share at some significant level the fruits of their labors puzzles me only a little as I do understand the basis of their fear though I do not share their concern.

    I like all those post apocalyptic movies as much as the next guy but seriously, for the most part, although its not always quite good enough it just ain't all that bad considering the progress made to date...AC, electric lights, unleaded, Mr.Coffee, Garbage disposal, clean water, refrigeration, paved streets, garbage pickup..

    The main thing we are short of in these deflationary times is something in short enough supply that folks want to buy at a significant markup. It could be worse and it has been for tens of thousands of years.
    Jan 30, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    No doubt both these guys needed more soap and less lather but I halfway introduced the Marx discussion to provoke a bit of controversy and note I earned zero likes for doing so which supports my case that we have been programmed not to read or discuss Marx as it was determined some time ago that such dissident thought could be contagious and we must protect our young minds from such radical thinking.

    On the other hand maybe if more folks would read such thinking we would be better prepared to discuss intelligently the pros and cons rather than accept someone else's conclusions absent participating in the thought processes that led to the conclusion.

    Anyway what little I do know about such ragtag philosophers is that they were more concerned with developing political solutions to social problems than any sort of comprehensive economic theory. I enjoy learning about a lot of the different ideas that were being tossed around from about the 1880 to say the beginning of WWI as there were a large number of competing ideas out there some of which were overwhelmed by the conflicts and never had a chance to be fully developed or tested.

    But to be dismissive of the entire generation is I believe a mistake as there were a lot of great minds at work addressing real word issues at a time when they lacked the power of mass communications and so you had a lot of guys in a room with a pen and paper and a candle trying to figure better solutions in what to us was a primitive environment but at the time was the lifestyle of the intelligentsia at a time of unprecedented material advancement via industry and yet at the same time severe social issues.

    Its easy for us to criticize but we have Google +!!
    Jan 30, 2015. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    We're mixing metaphors here among other things no doubt but that semi-coherent thinking out loud has somehow led me to the yet unproven but supported by the facts conclusion that the 10 year should be roughly half of the growth rate. If that admittedly questionable logic is valid, then a 2.4% growth rate should trend the 10 Year toward 1.2%.

    Now looking at the 10 Year Gilt, I find that coincidentally it has dropped nearly .1 to low 2.3's since the estimated growth dropped .2 to 2.4.

    Perhaps a stretch here, but maybe the Brits as the balancing point between Europe and the US are a better indicator, unbiased by the same false choices between a Hummer or a Tesla in the garage and dependent on value added human activity vs a developed economy combined with volatile mix of commodities and the burdensome costs of maintaining empire.

    Bottom line though, like e=IR heuristics does work once you identify the relationships and determine the correct values for constants.

    And to think some folks still think we need to send all our kids to study STEM so we have someone to fix our car but they may end up deciding to clean your collective clocks instead.

    http://bit.ly/1yeU8Bw

    Note also the 30 Year breached 2 1/4 this am.

    http://bit.ly/1xxCJpH
    Jan 30, 2015. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    I just saw on ET that the Backstreet Boy's Manager went to the big house because he was caught keeping 78% of the take.

    So let's think this through. According to Karl Marx and others, it's all about capital vs labor. If it is true that capital is to recirculate via labor then a good starting point for discussion it seems would be 50/50.

    But then I see that there are few brick and mortar industries that can produce 20% ROI consistently, names like GT and pharmaceuticals come to mind.

    So as it is said, it takes a lot of capital to generate good paying jobs, so maybe it does take $80 to make $20 profit.

    But now the cost of capital is reduced via zirp, so that should reduce the overhead and increase the profitability, which is all fine and good except that nearly all the savings go right back into capital goods and accelerated adoption of labor saving technology.

    So we end up with 2% growth on what is an ever higher baseline which is fine except now the cost of capital cannot exceed the growth or something is out of kilter.

    Looks like 2% growth should logically support 1% capital. There are lots of old fuddy duddies out there who are still expecting 6% risk free on their money in a 2% economy. Dream on, 1984 has come and gone.

    Even 3% in a 2% economy is high. I'd like to see that 3% ish growth become a reality, but that tells me rates need to get on down to 1.5%.

    We already sawthe rate ramp up prematurely to 3% and it put a damper on real growth immediately.

    Who are we kidding here? 2% growth is what it is and that says we need 1% on the rates to see any acceleration on growth.

    What to do then?

    Full slow ahead, continue to buy on the dips 'til the cows come home.

    http://bit.ly/1vcbp2G
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    So what is that, 20% for the risk taker and 80% for the house?

    Sound about right for most of the self serving predatory slugs that dominate a significant segment of the fiscal landscape these day.

    Looking back to earlier times, circa 1952 one could borrow at 3% and expect consistent 6% growth as far as the eye could see.

    Something is definitely wrong with the current modis operendi.

    There is a bubble all right, and where its located its going to lead to a severe cerebral hemmorage at some point in time.

    (present company excluded of course).

    http://bit.ly/1CEq5Zc
    Jan 29, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    "Spartz calls himself an aggregator, but he is more like a day trader, investing in pieces of content that seem poised to go viral. He and his engineers have developed algorithms that scan the Internet for memes with momentum. The content team then acts as arbitrageurs, cosmetically altering the source material and reposting it under what they hope will be a catchier headline. A meme’s success on Imgur, Topsy, or “certain niche subreddits” might indicate a potential viral hit. He added, “The sources and the rules sound simple, but it takes a lot of experimentation to make it actually useful. It’s a lot of indicators weighed against each other, and they’re always changing."

    http://nyr.kr/1yQhst4

    From a link posted by David Jackson
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    "Its just hard to say right now."

    I say again : "The Muppets think interest rates are going up"

    I say it because that is what the Fed has stated and that is what is on the front page news.

    But within 48 hours there will be another swimsuit malfunction and all will be forgotten until after the Superbowl.

    The spike in Doritos sales alone will be enough to raise consumer expectations enough to carry through 'til Easter break and all the extra money saved by staying cooped up at home and watching TV will now be available for spring gardening.

    Best idea is to continue buying on the dip, this may be last chance before download of the end of the month payroll and consequent surge of New Year resolution enhanced 401K contributions good through March for high earners.
    Jan 28, 2015. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    The Muppets think interest rates are going up. Buy on the dip, but make sure you know what to buy on the dip. Remember consumers are 70% of the demand. Invest in what they are going to buy not what they want to sell.

    http://on.wsj.com/1xxCJpH
    Jan 28, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    I'm not a techie per se, but it does appear to me that a significant percentage of the populace being able to carry around more processing power in their pocket than used for the Apollo Program is something that does and will have a significant influence on how we do business and get out work done freeing more and more people to have more time to process more and more information. The number of reduced trips to the store to try and find something or talk to the sales folks comparison shopping by a google search introduces a certain streamlining of lifestyle that is natural to the younger folks and not all that bad for the old birds either. I think the biggest effect is that it makes the consumer a more effective seeker of value and as it goes mainstream shifts demand quicker and quicker toward clarity of true value propositions. Case in point, what kind of modem and router should one use? A few years ago one might go to Radio Shack and build a DIY whereas now there are retailers with a wide selection of qualified products and it is just a google search away to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the various features and options available. Point is what was once a ponderous research project fraught with potential error is now potentially an enquiry via social media outlet and elimination if the also rans and a quicker entry into the list of better options. This rapid and continuous stimulation of demand driven quality simultaneously via large numbers of consumers is certainly a driven if what one might define as a higher standard of living. What I wonder how this sort of progress dovetails with such measures a GDP which in my view may be misleading as it incorporates a lot of the sort of broken window activity that result in a lot of monkey motion but lead to no real progress as far as actual improved standard of living. YMMV!
    Jan 28, 2015. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    "J.P. Morgan filled client orders at a certain rate, allowing them to quickly assess their position and continue trading when liquidity dried up in the market, this person said. The bank told clients it would fill orders at 1.02 francs per euro while the Swiss currency grew from 1.20 francs per euro to nearly .85 on Jan. 15, the person said."

    Thats an interesting play, pricing to sell at the midpoint while others are waiting for price discovery. Guess is, selling all the inventory the market will bear at half price is a lot more profitable than moving nothing while holding out for full price.

    Splitting the gravy 50/50 with the customer, what a concept! That must be why they are called market makers.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    Wow, I don't even remember what FTNT is, I think I added it to the Virtual Portfolio on a tip from IT. It's my number one performer right now, up 24%.
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Microsoft Profit Stung By Sluggish Windows [View article]
    Blue Okie,

    There is in fact some serious behind the scenes purpose driven science out there designed to determine the causes of a number of extinctions that have occurred over the eons.

    Among the scenarios that are identified as possible triggers of catastrophic events are meteor strikes as per the great flood, toxic gases due to volcanic action as well as effects due to living population.

    One of my favorite though yet unproven theories is the one that says the plant eaters population grew so large that all the healthy plants and the only thing left for them to eat were the poison ones.

    While a big deal is made by certain vocal interests as to whether such events are man made or natural, as if action is required in response to Fated Events as in so called Natural Law, one might suppose.

    But while in fact such discussions are quite effective in devolving discussion into another fallacy of false choices as a means to ensure that there is no open dialogue on the underlying issues at hand on the basis that it makes no difference except that it does if a better understanding of the causes might better help us to better prepare for if not preclude the potential consequences.
    Jan 27, 2015. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 105... [View instapost]
    Jhooper posted this one over on quickchat.
    If you like the idea of hard assets you might want to take a look.

    Surely there is a bit of truth to be found in every story and I do find the idea of risk sharing to be something that is generally missing in our post modern wild western financial culture based on binary traditions of rugged individualistic ownership which can leave us at a clear disadvantage in certain contexts when competing not only with foreign cultures but with corporations more attuned to such ideas as equity participation, fractional shares, etc.

    So much divisive rhetoric about ..what ever happened to "all for one and one for all"? Is that some sort of left wing liberal fantasy? Communist plot? Socialist agenda?

    Just another Democratic talking point? Beware the Pied Piper whose soothing melodies will lead you to whence there is no return.

    http://bit.ly/1BjQjvS
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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