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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    Re: (LLL) aka Lessons Learnt for Lurkers

    Rule one is protect the downside.

    Rule 2 is from FA 101, set a balanced portfolio that a) protects the downside and b)enables capture of gains.

    Notice I did not couch it in acceptance of risk which is a no no.

    Before executing b, refer back to a). The synergistic derivaic corollary to "no pain, no gain" is "Gain = no pain."

    I'll leave the proof of that to seasoned practicioners of inductive logic.

    So how does that work? Quite well, thank you, if you understand the barbell approach to risk mitigation.

    You split the kitty into two parts, ultra safe one side and high growth potential on the other.

    Never mind, forget the barbell, use a teeeter toter instead with a heavy allocation to safety such as Treasuries on one side with the highest performers on the other side such as LEAPS on potential high fliers with a downside limit below the actual experienced returns on the US aka "Ultra Safe" securities on the other side.

    It works sorta kinda like the scales at the doctors office, when you tip the scales at say 250, move the counterweight back to safety toward the left and move the fishing pole lure more to the right.

    When you've had a good catch, enjoy your dinner and repeat. You know what the say about teaching folks to fish.

    Always keep in mind that the object of the game is to consume more actual fish, not to slim down!YMMV, lol.

    Questions?
    Oct 25 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    OK now that I've Dollar Cost Averaged (aka "Doubled Down") on IBM, my heaviest boat anchor is (HYLD). I have no idea why I bout this except maybe I thought I'd beat (TLT) on which I'm up by 3.65%. Turns out its a stack of corporate bonds, duh! I could bought me another Fiat V8.

    http://bit.ly/1z52RuE

    http://bit.ly/1z52RuG
    Oct 24 03:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    OK, Chuck, you win. I just doubled down on IBM for the Challenge. Right now I'm in first place on the Red Team, hoping the 4th down kick will move me closer to the Green Zone soon.
    Oct 24 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    On the other hand, according to respected SA Contributor -Analyst Chuck Carnevale :

    "We assign IBM a wide economic moat rating. IBM has large and well-established hardware, software, and services businesses, each of which has high switching costs and recurring revenue streams. IBM's server hardware business is focused at the high end of the server market and the firm has recently stepped back from playing in the commoditized space.

    We do not expect the mainframe market to grow, but it's important to consider that migrating mainframe-based applications to alternative architectures can be expensive and risky. As a result, we believe that IBM's mainframe business will remain fairly steady and profitable.

    IBM's infrastructure-management software also tends to be very sticky, as IT personnel rely on it to operate their data centers and are reluctant to switch to new, less familiar systems. Software maintenance contracts provide profitable recurring revenue, and unlike the proprietary server business, the firm's software business continues to grow. Finally, about half of IBM's services business is composed of long-term outsourcing contracts ($138 billion backlog) that are sticky and provide recurring annual revenue."

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 24 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    Well, if anybody remembers my biggest loser for the Challenge so far is IBM. Just ran across a recent article sponsored by John Mauldin with the same conclusion albeit for a number of different reasons. Seems a lot of the big boys with deep pockets have lost their moat as well as their compass as access to capital becomes more and more democratized.

    http://bit.ly/1pIv2Hr

    http://bit.ly/1pIv0PI
    Oct 24 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    Heres an entire rundown. Daytraders only one would presume.

    http://bit.ly/1tJgWfM
    Oct 21 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    SQQQ. Looks risky to me. Then there is TQQQ but you better stay on top of it.

    http://on.mktw.net/1tJ...
    Oct 21 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 85....... [View instapost]
    QQQ is perhaps the most obvious choice.

    http://bit.ly/1sM4eJE
    Oct 21 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 84....... [View instapost]
    And I really wanted to find a good Blue Chip. But the more I read about Big Blue the less I understand. And you know what they say about "investing" in stuff you don't understand. About all I know is that LINUX is taking over where UNIX previously dominated, doi! Cheap lesson though, thanks to the Challenge for that. And I'm not buying this one on the dip even with fake money, pity on those who do.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 21 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 84....... [View instapost]
    Here's my small but biggest loser for the challenge. Go figure.

    IBM 10 187.83 162.21 1,622.08 -13.64%
    Oct 21 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 83....... [View instapost]
    Here's my best performer for the Challenge so far.

    Those low interest rates are a real killer, lol.

    TMF 100 68.54 77.08 7,708.47 12.47%
    Oct 16 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Additional Bullish Portents For Treasuries [View article]
    My pleasure.
    Oct 15 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Additional Bullish Portents For Treasuries [View article]
    Here is a link that will get you quickly to the meat of the discussion.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 15 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 83....... [View instapost]
    Treasuries update.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 15 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Austrian Business Cycle Theory? [View article]
    We've hit 1.86..30 yr bounced off 2.67. Once yields find their footing and the deer in the headlights effect dissipates we should be well positioned for solid sustainability. In the meantime look out below.
    Oct 15 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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