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  • Is Inequality Causing Soft Economic Growth? [View article]
    Here's another perspective, hot off the presses.

    http://ti.me/1liujzX
    Aug 20 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    With regard to inflation, the minutes noted that inflation has moved higher in recent months but is still running below the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

    The Fed has said it won’t consider raising interest rates until inflation hits a range of 1.7%-2% and the unemployment rate falls to 5.2%-5.6%. down from its current 6.1% level.

    http://fxn.ws/VGCPw4
    Aug 20 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inequality Causing Soft Economic Growth? [View article]
    Well, at least we got the first part right. Unfortunately, the program was put on hold after successful delivery to guys in suits at the helipads located on the top floor of the tallest buildings in the financial district. Nice concept demonstration!

    We need now to contiinue with the program, but this time we need to ramp it up deliver the rounds on the right target, like maybe the parking lot of the 100 largest shopping malls. What say Senators choice, one ticket per customer?


    http://bit.ly/1lhAl3T
    Aug 20 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inequality Causing Soft Economic Growth? [View article]
    Macro,

    I guess I always thought progress was represented by rising compensation rather than higher taxation.

    However, if taxes can be used effectively to incentivize a larger share going to labor I have no philosophical objection though I suspect there are many of the zero sum school of thought who do.

    In the past wages have tended to necessarily rise in response to higher consumer costs, not the other way around as commonly believed.

    Now the efficiencies of competition have driven down the costs of production and most consumer goods such that the pressure is no longer so much for higher wages to keep up with inflation but rather an increased need for reliable resources in order to participate in the consumer economy.

    The sort of bargaining unit that arises from this sort of uneven growth is not one that has been shown to accelerate the economy but rather hinders what progress is in work.
    Aug 19 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inequality Causing Soft Economic Growth? [View article]
    Macro,

    I don't think I necessarily trust any -ology that ends with -ism.

    However there is surely some middle ground between the extremes of unbridled quest for maximum profit vs social awareness.

    FWIW I'm not advocating any change only enough understanding to make reasonable decisions in light of what could be a changing operating environment.

    So far I don't see a lot of prospects for taxing our way to equality or nationalizing the means of production.

    It is perhaps possible that at some point a way will be found to facilitate a more uniform distribution of at least some small fraction of the static wealth that has been accumulated via higher wages and benefits for the working folks and maybe even a more generous retirement downstream.

    So far, that's three unlikely scenarios in the near to intermediate term IMO.

    So that means a continued trend upward for both bonds and stocks.

    http://on.mktw.net/1pU...
    Aug 18 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inequality Causing Soft Economic Growth? [View article]
    OK guys, I'll try again.

    Maybe I should have said instead that the problem is not so much a need to redistribute income as it is that the system needs to be adjusted so as to accommodate provision of a sufficiently equitable distribution of the benefits of national wealth to begin with.

    The idea of robbing Peter to pay Paul is a nonstarter.

    Meanwhile, we have an ever increasing imbalance between the amount of capital that is available for production relative to demand for product.
    Aug 18 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Inequality Causing Soft Economic Growth? [View article]
    Macro,

    I really hate that word, "redistribution". What we're talking about unredeemed credits here that have never been cashed in the first place.

    Look at it this way, trade surpluses are receipts which first appear as excess reserves and eventually work their way through the system into the so called National Debt, which just means it's disappeared into a deep black hole, as there is no straightforward mechanism under dominant political ideology to make a withdrawal, only the ability to issue debt against these abstract "assets".

    Point is, much of the earnings from trade differentials were never distributed as income in the first place, so the unrealized assets, like the tree in the forest that makes no sound because noone is there to hear fall in an uninhabited forest, simply fades away.
    Aug 18 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: eBay Payments Unit Mulls Accepting Bitcoin [View article]
    Rumor Control has it that an "All Hands" meeting has been called this morning over in the Bond Shorting Department to discuss possible next steps.

    TGIF, looks like some of us might get to go home early today!
    Aug 15 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    More on Bunds...got this link via SA email distribution; interesting perspective on demand from Europe and discussion of the external trend drivers.

    I'm still thinking of picking up some (NYSEARCA:TLT) for the challenge, maybe next time we get a yield bump I'll pick some up.

    I notice they spike up every once in a while like the weeds in my yard after a heavy rain but they don't usually last very long.

    http://bit.ly/1sOfhRt
    Aug 12 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The Yield Curve Flattening? [View article]
    Cullen-

    I reviewed the Sumner link and agree with commenter Benjamin Cole's view that "It is demand that is weak."

    Dr. Sumner as I understand it, because of his credibility has the ear of Federal Reserve, so his observations are naturally directed toward the supply side mechanisms. So the perspective is not necessarily invalid, only naturally framed by the context of the reality from which those with influence within the FR community possess.

    As Mr. Cole has highlighted however, the reality of the yield curves, independent of the best models are indeed market driven and therefore ultimately tied to demand, albeit any fluctuations between objective reality and that elusive efficient market condition, that delta between also know as friction.

    The view here is that the dominant uncontrollable variable related to standard linear assumptions based in behavioral dynamics tend to dampen any fluctuations due to stickiness of opinions regarding overall economic trends resulting in a hysteresis effect that has tended to keep rate higher than they should be and will as we progress forward also bias any tendencies toward higher yields in the other direction taking us into a long overdue but potentially protracted period of negative real rates going forward once the threshold is finally breached.

    But what do I know?
    Aug 10 10:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Money Are You Planning To Lose In Your Bond Portfolio? [View article]
    GF,

    That's a really useful report, thanks for the link.
    Aug 9 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 1. [View instapost]
    Crade, I think you've got the Titanic confused with the iceberg that hit it.

    Look at it this way, all that stuff you see floating on top, that's risk money, sitting onto an invisible and yet massive dark pool of frozen assets just below the surface.

    If the snow melts on top, well a little more credit floats up from below to balance out the books according to the latest buoyancy chart.

    While everything may appears static on top, but the ocean just absorbs all that excess liquidity back into the system until someone on top back on Main Street does a little financial fracking and manages to capture some of that stored negative energy back and spend it on consumer goods before it melts and flows downstream in the form of deposits again for recapture accompanied by a giant sucking sound right back into that giant ice making machine.

    Point is there is a lot more low risk liquidity frozen out of view below the surface than there is on top.

    If you don't believe me, look at that picture of a pyramid on the dollar bill, and then look and see how many floors there are going down when you step on the elevator next time you go visit the Federal Reserve.

    Now get back to work and make us some more snowcones!

    http://nyfed.org/1bgJyOe
    Aug 8 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 1. [View instapost]
    Maybe that's why you're up .21% to my paltry .13!

    Which is not a bad start really, at this rate you'll hit 10.92% in a year while poor me on the other hand will be forced to get by on a mere 125.47 per week unearned income.

    No worry though, maybe if I work just a little bit harder IT will give me another raise out of the new IT PSP (Profit Sharing Plan) that he's been working on, lol.
    Aug 8 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 1. [View instapost]
    Gee, Crademan, but aren't we supposed to buy when everyone else is scared? I think the headline was about high yield bonds, which have not done well. (NYSEARCA:TLT) on the other hand, has done quite nicely. 10 Year Treasury breached support at 2.40 earlier today; now look at the 3 year chart and you will see nothing between todays lows and the 2's. Now tell me again, why is it we keep hearing it said that interest rates "have' to go higher?..have to go higher...have to go higher..go to sleep now..htgh...htgh..they really..really have too...zzzz
    Aug 8 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Austrian Business Cycle Theory? [View article]
    Well, there's always an incentive to expend available resources before the end of the Fiscal Year 1 Oct., especially with the elections coming up in Nov.

    Summer heat manmade or otherwise is unlikely to continue unmitigated past 22 Sept. with continued need for stimulus once the party is over in December. Maybe another step function down on yields or short of that some sticky hysteresis effect to the downside for yields now that support has been breached. I can't realistically see a big selloff after Labor Day though there is still time to pick up some deals before the programmed contribution cycle kicks back in come January. Make your winter cruise reservations early for great discounts!
    Aug 8 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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