Economic Analyst

Economic Analyst
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  • (97)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #97  [View instapost]
    How come no one ever anticipates a lower rate than me? To resist is futile. I'm not a bear, just an astute observer of data and relationships. Lower costs of production in combination with surplus capital in what is a consumer driven economy? Disinflation good, deflation bad, Its not the same thing, gentlemen!
    Feb 8, 2016. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Market Awaits Jobs Report  [View article]
    So, the Stanford MBA Princelings in Beijing get to set the exchange rate, do they? So funny! Some folks think the Fed sets interest rates, too, lol.
    Feb 5, 2016. 08:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 141.....  [View instapost]
    Remind me to add some of this to PC3...cross between Trader Joe's and Whole Foods. Unbeatable under the radar value; I don't usually try and call bottoms but It looks like the IPO guys have taken profits on establishment of the infrastructure platform and now its time for the retail investor to step in anticipation of the bump.
    Feb 5, 2016. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 140......  [View instapost]
    Yup, just about the time the ones who entered the workforce in the early 40's all began to reach retirement age and they paid the new kids to compete for B scale.
    Jan 28, 2016. 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 140......  [View instapost]
    Shorting the market again are ya? I went heavy on TQQQ early I've gone red for just one day since; angling upward gradually gaining altitude on lower lows plenty of cash in reserve main task is to jettison excess ballast looks like a head fake to me the establishments gotta jawbone it down for a nice rebound in the runnup to the elections low inflation on steady employment growth its a new paradigm of automated surplus going forward the roaring 2020's are not that far away even for the geriatric crowd.
    Jan 28, 2016. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]

    I've not frequented your blog much in the past so maybe I caught you by surprise with my cavalier approach. I've crossed swords with JH and the like over a period of time but surprisingly it seems we've found some common ground regarding the significance of the 10 Year though surely there are still some contentious aspects yet to be explored.
    Both Tack and F&G are among my favorite commenters as they both offer tremendous insight and experience. I usually just follow along rather than try and debate those two. So here I am wiling to share and learn from the best.

    So now here is one outliers perspective on 10 Year Treasuries. go with the flow. Follow the leader. US backed securities are the backbone of the global economy. Literally, that is where the real money is. Plenty of data, no shortage of information from reliable sources and otherwise. Read everything, learn to distinguish between hype and insight. The real story is very boring so keep the coffee brewing.

    Anyone with google can access realtime data regarding USD vs the others 24/7 the sort of info and trading opportunities only available to a handful of international bakers only a few years ago.

    Should I really care if I can get 120 yen for a dollar when I could only get 80 just a couple of years ago? Maybe I should consider that before jumping on the sky is falling bandwagon when the yields drop from 2-3%. So what if S&P's is down 5% when the dollar is up 10%? So many running around with their hair on fire meanwhile there is no shortage of liquidity, keep the just keep that firehose running.

    There's more to it than that, but you really have to get on board with that sort of thinking to understand the entire interest rate environment thing, at least that's how I see it. Just don't get sidetracked by the debt & deficit driven fear mongers which do their best to steal the spotlight.

    Once you catch the rhythm and are able to acquire a good base in UST's & dollars then you will be in a good position to appreciate the higher notes provided by our more capable maestros regarding equities and such.
    Jan 19, 2016. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (93)-Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #93  [View instapost]
    LMH-Here's a possible chapter title for you:

    "How to avoid unnecessary risk driven losses and generate the highest low risk return by continuously rebalancing via self generated signals from aggressive practice trading and by monitoring ongoing trends in the Ten Year Treasury and relative values via Forex, mainly JPY and GBP for fun and profit."
    Jan 19, 2016. 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]
    In my experience most folks with a bit of preparation can take a good position based on a reasonable plan to take profits at some future date. Unfortunately, while you can take a position at the time of your choice the time to take profits is not something you can plan for with certainty according to your own calendar. So we often enter the market with the implicit intent of timing our exit. For those instances whereupon the exit plan somehow doesn't work out,even according to our best laid plans, somehow that is when many of us convert and become buy and holders, lol.
    Jan 19, 2016. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 140......  [View instapost]
    Yeah JW however I've a suspicious low GDP may not be the scourge it is seen in many circles. I wonder if this low energy cost structure cascading through the supply chain may be a really good deal once we get calibrated to the proper lean mixture after running way too rich for way to long. I wonder how the shop keepers in Ft Smith made out when they opened up Oklahoma during the land rush. OMG, free stuff again, how can we recover from that? Remember free air? Saw it again just yesterday. What if the gas stations start giving free gas to bring folks in to shop at the convenience store? What if the fuel storage tank develops a leak and has to be drained for repairs and there is nowhere else to store it? What's the shelf life of all that stored refined product anyway, 6 months? They're already having price wars in Detroit less than $1/ gal. I guess they need to burn enough to keep it from leaking in the Flint River, a little late for that eh? Gentlemen, start your engines!
    Jan 19, 2016. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]

    Good question, my apology for being so vague. I was partly venting partly speculating partly looking for other opinions. But what I was implying mainly was the election cycle. I don't particularly care for partisan sniping but at the same time one should recall that back in the days of olden there was a discipline known among academics as political economics, however at some point before either of our time it was decided that they should be treated as separate sciences, as in political science whereas economics is assigned by design a more mysterious ivory tower image it seems along with a heavy dose of esoteric formule guaranteed to cure even the most hopeless insomniacs.

    So back to the point market timing is in my opinion something that is designed in theory to be performed at the macro level e.g., the Federal Reserve, the Congress, smoke filled rooms at the athletic club, good old boys network, they went that a way, etc.

    So I guess the best advice I can give is not to ignore all the pundits politicians and media but don't be too quick to follow the herd either. This with a clear understanding that fundamentals while important are not enough. You gotta make decisions based on the entire picture which is rife with factors political and otherwise which can move markets in seeming irrational but at the time perfectly understandable if you take into account the total environment. OK so a cynic might say maybe the last year of a Democratic Administration is a good time to cash out before the opposition moves in. Or maybe its a good time to scare the markets because the electorate has a memory of only six months and the worse it looks in the spring the better it will look for whomever in the fall. But markets don't like uncertainty so maybe we should just wait and see. And then in November we will see the result then everyone will breath a sigh of relief and the markets will accelerate with the new administration in '17. Or not. But once conditions stabilize fundamentals eventually overcome irrationality and the markets make sense again. Anyway its a real roller coaster ride and if you look at the longer term you will see more clearly the best entry and exit points, unfortunately at the time they will be hidden from view unless you can see through the smoke and mirrors, by the time the trend is clear the best time to make a move is already past for most of us. But I guess my point on timing is that I take exception with the mantra which says oh, but you can't do that. Of course you can but you better do your homework before you make a serious move. Like others in the minority here I find the 10 year treasuries to be the most rational indicator which such judgments can be leveraged off of. Others have a different sense of the markets but for me the tea leaves are fairly readable with proper lighting. After all that's where the real money is and the rest of it is second and third order effects.
    Jan 18, 2016. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]
    What is the one common numerator in '99, '07, & '15? And "they" say "you" can't time the market. Just keep repeating it enough times and no one will ever credibly question it. The same guys designated representatives will at times explain in vaguely but absolutely legalistic terms how you can't prove a negative either. How convenient. What's the latest terminology for that sort of programmable linear thinking now now, culpable deniability?
    Jan 18, 2016. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]
    Disney was certainly an influential visionary. Though the details differ from the original concepts, his sort of futuristic entrepreneurship has influenced generations. Funny though, Hong Kong seems to be the real deal vs the fantasy version with the harbor ferries, subways, and Rolls Rental cars at the nearby airport. Maybe places like Dubai with inside snow ski in the desert and underwater hotels is the latest future. But Disney did provide a most inspiring prototype. But then again, the Eiffel Tower while an interesting relic, was once the tallest building in the world.
    Jan 18, 2016. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 140......  [View instapost]
    Here is the most interesting chart of the day, posted originally by J Hooper.
    Jan 18, 2016. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]

    But that is exactly my point, that is to say they would lose value when nobody wanted to live there. Surely economic life considerations outweigh supply vs demand consideration, else why new construction? Can not housing be included under the heading aging infrastructure? I honestly don't expect to see more than a small fraction of existing properties to still be standing a hundred years from now, and we're not short of land in this country quite yet, and we do have a long proud history of moving over the next hill to take advantage of the cheap land in the next valley. But the tendency to assume that price is correlated directly to actual value is often in error for a number of reasons. But on a final note I would think the number of REO properties still on the books of major banks would for instance be one indicator of actual market vs book value while the number of unsold properties that are not tied financial to the banking system that would potentially be sold if there were a market for it would give a different story. Perhaps our English culture based on a lot of people on a small island has been slow to adjust to the reality of a lot of land and not so many people outside the major metropolitan areas of the NE and So Cali. Fact is we need more immigrants who still believe we are going to run out of it cuz the old birds already know once you get 50 miles out of town its mainly flyover country.
    Jan 18, 2016. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]

    You've highlighted several issues there, I see your are in the realty business so I appreciate your perspective. I think it is fair to say that headline statistics address properties that move not necessarily those that don't, so the sale prices do not include the stranded assets that are unable for a number of reasons to move in a competitive market dominated by best quality for the best price. Clearly there are times when it is difficult to move a given property regardless of price; certainly there are many properties out there which could not be sold at any price, hence the definition stranded assets, aka liabilities. You know the drill, location to the 3rd power, all politics is local and so is the realty market so it is easy to be mislead by generalizations which may or not apply in your own market. But yeah, more folks than not do find it necessary to select properties that are less than optimal from an investment perspective due to affordability. I'll refrain for pointing to specific zip codes but if you spend some time on zillow I am certain you could find the necessary evidence to support the case of diminishing values at the low end in many jurisdictions
    Jan 18, 2016. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment