Seeking Alpha

Economic Analyst

Economic Analyst
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Economic Analyst's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 'The U.S. Is Broke' [View article]
    Thanks SU for another thought provoking article.

    I'm thinking this could go down as one of the top SA articles of all time based on the quality and number of comments so far.

    I concur with the conclusion that the US is not broke as commonly believed.

    While efficacy as a permanent cure is doubtful, it seems a large dose of cold water is the best near term antidote to the more fiery rhetoric.

    http://bit.ly/1LK9MhR.jpg
    Jul 25, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    Yes! Glad I added incrementally to RLP bond as summer doldrums fluctuations on low volume enabled exaggerated and mint julep fueled moves on unsubstantiated fears such as rapidly rising inflation in the face of collapsing commodities due to excess production capacity globally. Who believes $20 a barrel is impossible? Hello, we've overpaid for energy independence for what, 40+ years now? Peak oil mentality is for losers. Free internet for everyone!!

    http://bit.ly/1JDotyF
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    Oh yeah, the 3X S&P play. I do like that one though if find the 3X small caps to be even more aggressive on the upswing like TNA. Lately I discovered one that is even better its a 3X top 100 small cap TQQQ. I know I know leverage is a two edges sword. That's why you hedge to aggressive 3X equities with aggressive 3X treasuries like TMF. Remember Sunshine Lollipop? If you think you can do better going long on a bunch of mega corps try practice trading I only know of one or two folks who have demonstrated the ability to do this and its so much easier to just go with a balanced super aggressive mix and go bowling on Wednesdays for the rest of your life with the profits. Maybe you don't believe MPT, some of the best writers on SA don't but if you do think it prudent to hedge your bets then go the next step and reduce your risk via reduced exposure by limiting your outlay to 10% ea, get the same basic output as 60% with 1/3 the risk, hello cash reserve! Remember the #1 goal is not to lose. As a wise man once told me if you're staying even your getting ahead. Anything above that is a bonus. Maybe there's a top 100 bond fund out there that I have not discovered or maybe its already sucked up via private equity and the leftovers have gone public. But if your looking for a aggressive risk on instrument for risk on conditions so far TQQQ is the best I have found so far. But again, try a 10% limit and hedge with 30% cash or better. Capisce?
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • POSTINGS FOR THE 3RD "IT MOCK PORTFOLIO" CHALLENGE.....CHAPTER 1 !! [View instapost]
    Crade has created a firestorm on the front page this morning; she certainly has struck a nerve. Great topic for continued discussion; I'll try to listen and learn before I let my own biased opinions out of the bag.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    I just checked VA and seeing my CTL was down .44% figured I'd take a look at the chart and see if I should consider a double down on the dip. The I see this Fukishima style seismograph and see I missed one of those quick transient lows that day traders live for. Then I check the big indexes and see the same general pattern coinciding with a spike in volume just after 9:45 followed by rapidly diminishing echos. So now I'm thinking why buy at a .002 discount what I could have bought a half a percent off if I didn't have a 20 minute delay. Buy on the dips but make sure you don't get stepped on by T-Rex. Must be nice to have enough buying power to sell the market down and withhold enough liquidity til the margin buyers capitulate and then sweep the table of all the retailers shorts as a cover for taking some really big bites. I guess it might be a good idea to have some low bids on predictably strong dividend producers in place just in case. .5% discount once a week or so should add up after a while.

    http://bit.ly/1VAqULu
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    I really wanted to like IBM some time ago but after reading everything I could to convince me I understood why it was a good investment I still didn't understand. Now I see it would have been a good one to short, but I missed the first big leg down; don't have a strong enough basis to be convinced it will continue down. While my prediction would be a dead cat bounce I don't feel strongly enough to bet on it, Mr. Pareto sez I need 80% confidence not 55%. But I do like the cloud space so I put 100 shares of CTL in the PC3 account as I think this is a company that is going the other way, transitioning from a mainline legacy operation to a sophisticated potentially agile player in light of policy moves to bring the internet to the ill serviced. I think this one has been milked like a cow by the more traditional dividend folks many of who left mad after a dividend cut while still under the radar for the growth investor. If I was going to write an article this might be a good candidate for the audience seeking hidden value.
    Jul 22, 2015. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Nearing Peak Commodity Hatred? [View article]
    WTR,

    Unfortunately, yes.

    Maybe that's why there is a perceived need out there to convert over time to assets with a more predictable fixed floor.

    http://1.usa.gov/1Vr2ZOK
    Jul 21, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Commodities Under Pressure - Gold, Precious Metals, Oil [View article]
    Tavern123,

    1. TBTF increase reserves to meet stress test
    2. TBTF decreases non-reserve quality assets to increase reserves
    3. Non-reserve assets are sold in the market
    4. Prices of non-reserve quality assets are reduces via increased supply
    5. Markets move toward higher quality assets
    6. Demand for high quality assets creates upward pressure on interest rates
    7. Higher yields leads to increased demand for high quality income producing instruments
    8. Higher rates attract more liquidity via safe haven effect.
    9. Increased monetary flow lowers effective rate resulting in "Risk Off"
    10. Equities reach new highs
    11. Take profits
    12. Rinse, repeat. Just don't forget to activate the dry cycle!
    Jul 21, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    Its pretty obvious if you understand what's really going on. fortunately, or unfortunately a explained in detail by Vilfredo Pareto, depending on whether you are a buyer or seller of horses most folks don't have a clue.

    http://bit.ly/1IcObcp
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    "Commodities are non-financial assets. This means that they are generally cost inputs in the capital structure. As such, they should not be viewed as “investments”. They are, at best, hedging tools in a portfolio. I always say that commodities are something you rent, not something you own. There are times when commodities are quite beneficial in a portfolio. For instance, historically, late in the business cycle commodities perform well because wages are rising, inflation is rising and the economy starts to boom. This is positive for commodities and can create an environment that generates a positive uncorrelated return asset in addition to equities (since bonds generally won’t be performing as well at this point in the cycle).

    Gold is just one of many commodities, however. I am not sure why it’s viewed as something special. In today’s financial asset based monetary systems there is nothing special about gold. It is not a currency and it is not “money”. It should be viewed as another industrial commodity and nothing more."

    That's what Cullen Roche says.

    My view differs somewhat as I actually do have a pretty fair idea "why it’s viewed as something special."

    Maybe that why unlike Cullen, I would concede nothing by implying that there are good reasons to "invest" in commodities. There are none. Commodities are costs to production, nothing more. Go ahead, speculate, trust someone else with your money who plans to compete on the basis of price. Maybe they can make up for it on volume and you will end up with a piece of the action.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 21, 2015. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    I am planning to add some DIS hopefully at the lower end of the trading range. I usually put in market orders but maybe I should submit a price. On the other hand there is no guarantee of a dip so maybe I should just establish a position and buy more if there is a nice dip in say August. Ideas?
    Jul 19, 2015. 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    A portfolio which shows the lowest risk level for a given level of return is deemed to be “efficient” and a series of such efficient portfolios can be plotted to form an Efficient Frontier, which illustrates the expected trade-off faced by investors.

    EA's PC3 Portfolio , like the Wilshire Traditional Model Portfolios discussed in the report below are constructed to help investors maximize the benefits of Modern Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Frontier; additionally he just likes to play to win.

    (PS he's #1 for the week...now, who can trump that!?!?)

    http://bit.ly/1RHfrdM
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold renews slide, hits lowest price since 2010 [View news story]
    Now waiting now for the Zombie Apocalypse later.

    (If you can't wait that long you can fast forward to 1:00 to see how it all ends)

    http://bit.ly/1RGXTyi
    Jul 19, 2015. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold renews slide, hits lowest price since 2010 [View news story]
    Lowers the cost of energy production as well. $20 oil anyone?

    http://bit.ly/1Keammk
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 129.... [View instapost]
    And some newbies still believe there are no new tricks to be learned.

    http://bit.ly/1TH1yda
    Jul 17, 2015. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,449 Comments
1,487 Likes