Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
RE : British deportation of Acadians in 1755
Not many remember the French and Indian War, a proxy for larger The Seven Years War, or the fact that Louisiana belonged to Spain before it a deal to sell it to the US was brokered by the mortgagee, France. I do recall reading about some confusion about land in St.Louis when some of the late arrivals found that the earlier Grants issued by the Spanish were not included in the deal and were grandfathered in. Even today, if you can find a piece of property out west with a Spanish Grant, that title search will stand.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
"It may all come back around to having balance."
Or not, if you believe the "clever propaganda" shared by AT above.
I for one have little doubt that there is more to story than meets the eye, however I also believe that we do have symptoms of that hot and cold disease, wherein we have one foot on a hot stove and another in a bucket of ice but our average temperature is just fine.
Seems I heard on the good news on the radio that the average American's personal wealth is back where it was in back in 07, at something like $160K/401k.
I think I'd like to see a diagram that shows the spread on that one broken down by age group.
If the imbalances are really as bad as some would claim, then SS is not going to get us where we need to be.
We need something to create jobs and income at the front end of the demographic curve, be it WPA2 or whatever.
And this is one I haven't heard discussed recently, how about a shorter work week, say 32 hours.
I know, efficiency and all that, but just keep letting some folks work 60 hours and pay taxes and subsidize rent for those who don't and try and go out and enjoy a nice relaxing day at the golf course.
Under the current conditions, however I would never advise a young person to waste time and energy waiting for something to change in the way we structure work to get a life.
After all, they know we won't be around to boss them around for much longer. And some folks will still insist that life isn't fair.
Stagflation: Coming Soon To A Market Near You [View article]
Bret - There is something that doesn't ring true about your over-simplistic statement. Case in point, I was asked by a friend with failing vision to check into eligibility for disability as her husband is concerned she will have a car accident. As it turns out, if you are employed, you are not eligible. But because of laws designed to help those with disabilities gain employment, it is hard to layoff employees with disabilities. So she can quit her job, but the main criteria for eligibility is losing a job because of a disability. So it is perhaps more likely that the folks not eligible for disability benefits will be let go first. If you think what I just said doesn't make sense I agree. Maybe the healthy folks don't need health insurance so they can afford to go home. Welcome to the USA.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
"Despite the anxieties oft mentioned, this will be a gradual process..."
Agreed. A good part of the angst to do with the prospect of rising rates is perhaps unwarranted in light of the possibility that as the expansion continues, the potential rewards become more likely, and the ability to pay the additional risk premium for better access to funding is justified.
As the ratio of equity to labor increases with automation the traditional fears of wage inflation are logically overcome by fears of being left behind by the competition who are busily creating higher value at a lower cost more quickly.
So there should be a willingness to pay a premium for access to capital that will keep the winners on top.
However, the ever increasing productivity will surely not lead to higher wages for labor on any sort of macro scale.
Therefore, to continue growth on a large scale the system must increase the participation of the population on the equity side of the equation.
Absent some clear and present participation in some form of an ownership society, there is a risk of an increasing the proportion of alienated and the attendant risks that are evident in failed systems.
But that's a side note. The point is, the fear of rapidly rising rates due to inflation is not based in what has traditionally driven policy, so as you say, it should be gradual and I believe organic, not in response to some dramatic need for classical intervention, or supply demand ratio, but as a risk sharing premium. At least that is the theory that I am leaning toward.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
"...embrace the principles of enlightenment."
But we've already been there, done that. We made a lot of progress, made a of mistakes.
On to the past-modern era. I won't try and present a detailed critique the limitations of Enlightened thinking, but William Barrett did a good job in his 1958 work "Irrational Man".
Once you've covered all the bases defined by logic, its time to get back to what really counts, which is not what's going on outside.
Enlightenment is a good start, but will never take you all the way to where you really want to be.
Lots of unhappy people out there who are still trying to relive the 19th Century without considering the mistakes of the 20th.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
"...the question of whether more paid work is the best thing we can do once the robots can do so much."
I think it is fairly clear that for most folks who have invested their own time and energy enough to have some sense that they have in some way made a contribution to the effectiveness of that large and mostly useful machine called the modern economy that sitting back and letting the machine do the work is the way to go.
It took us all the year up until the Industrial Age to figure out how to build the machine capable of relieving man from labor.
And we're supposed to somehow wring our hands and feel bad because all the futurist of the past were right, we don't need to spend all day behind mule with a 1 bottom plow when we can air freight in all the fresh vegetables grown in air conditioned greenhouses we can eat but we don't want to hurt the disciples of Malthus's feelings by just letting everybody eat because of some ill conceived notion about equity that has been proven more effective over the centuries at creating social turmoil than adding value and improving the overall standard of living downstream.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
"The real issue is one of efficiency, realistically, because all these excess folks are not suddenly going to become productive members of the work force."
TVP - Actually, everything you said in the paragraph leading up to this point makes perfect sense.
I differ with you on this point as I believe your measuring stick has not been calibrated to account for the greatly underestimated underutilized latent potential that still remains in the economy.
We have barely scratched the surface with the mineral resources that are yet untapped.
We have the ability to develop advanced energy systems that will enable a quantum leap in low cost energy, just as we did when we harnessed first the ox and most recently fossil fuels which within our lifetime has enabled an increase in standard of living in the developed world.
With the increasing economy of scale, our state of the art economy is a model which can be copied an improved on by the other 95% of the world.
And yet we continue to concern ourselves with the personal business of those who have not participated according to the guidelines of an obsolete industrial age societal model.
I say we continue to move forward without concerning ourselves with the motives ambitions or abilities of others who may have different aspirations opportunities or interests.
Frankly, and this is not directed to you personally, we have a cultural issue here that I would categorize as the opposite of Liberty, and could be called meddlesome.
It does appear to me that for understandable and yet insupportable reasons we have somewhere along the line accepted a lone of reasoning that justifies interference with the so called freedom of others to manage their own lives.
Ironically, this sort of argument very commonly I think most vigorously promoted among those who are somehow concerned with the overbearing reach of the government and yet consider such behavior as acceptable in the world of business as long as profitability is assured and even into private life as those who are not considered "Productive" are fair game for ridicule and worse in the media or in general discourse; the sort of disrespect of fellow humans that would be called bullying if it were to occur in our schools.
And yet any one with a job or investment account that generates enough income to produce a tax bill justifies a lot of our fellow citizens the right to condemn those among us who have not yet achieved such a lofty perch.
If all the energy used to make sure the unwilling or unable are dealt with harshly were instead directed toward increasing the level of personal responsibility via access to the modern tools and opportunity we could quickly and effectively raise all boats.
So what if we got a few stowaways?
It's not like we're going to run out of more important things to do than hold up the entire voyage because of some footdraggers that didn't get their senior discount because they didn't even know how to enter their own password..
Efficiency is secondary, first we gotta do the right deal.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
Tack -
You are certainly one of the more thoughtful commenters here, and I've learned from your well supported explanations. but in this case I believe you failed to see Hoopers most recent point, which as I understand it is that all those folks that are no longer required to perform manual labor are now available to make other contributions, and can be viewed as potential assets rather than troublesome liabilities.
Now it is possible to use that frame of reference and look around and see who is making good use of their human resources and who is eating their seed corn.
There is plenty of gloom and doom out there yet, but at the same time there are refuges of excellence that continue to advance while Rome continues to burn.
I believe it is safe to bet civil societies that encourage innovation and shared rewards for excellence and minimal punishment for failure, IOW make carrots plentiful and cheap and forget about the cattle prods.
One doesn't have to be a revolutionary to advocate the option of letting follks vote with their feet and making sure they have somewhere to go.
If you can figure that one out, that's what I'm investing in, because that's what works.
Show me a place where people can go because they are considered assets rather than liabilities and that is where they will go. And that is where the real money will be earned.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
"...thus raising deficits."
And this is a problem because :
It's an essay question, open book. Take your time.
Extra Credit : Per last years annual report, The Social Security Administration projects that there is enough in accounts at this time to pay through 2032 without dipping into principal. These projections were created before the 2% holiday expired on 1 Jan 13.
For 5 extra points, identify a feasible means of increasing the equity in the Trust Fund to extend the life of the fully vested program beyond 2032.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
"... cost to the US public via increased deficits."
The "costs" seem to be fairly low at this time....at least that's what I heard on NPR Radio yesterday, that short term deposits to the US Treasuries via the latest Treasury Auction this past week came in at the lowest rate ever, .6 Cents/$1000 was how it was expressed on that particular outlier media outlet.
No doubt it is a great deal for those lacking anywhere secure to park assets in an unstable world, which is of course why hopeful depositors from 3rd world countries with Tin Pot dictators as well as guys in 3 piece suits from advanced countries who need to diversify their currency holdings to facilitate modern commerce in what is an increasingly global market, are lined up outside with their checkbooks ready.
The vaults are bursting at the seams, but of course, we need to limit our expenses because someone from WVA lives month to month so budget to build more storage capacity is strictly limited until such time as we have enough money to expand the economy, because what sense does it make to send man to the moon when there are still people living in doublewides and using foodstamps.
Restore Constitutional Sanity.
Start charging small maintenance fees to cover the overhead for keeping deposits safe, and move along with judicious asset allocation and other areas with potential for improvements in efficiency and effectiveness.(lol).
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Not many remember the French and Indian War, a proxy for larger The Seven Years War, or the fact that Louisiana belonged to Spain before it a deal to sell it to the US was brokered by the mortgagee, France. I do recall reading about some confusion about land in St.Louis when some of the late arrivals found that the earlier Grants issued by the Spanish were not included in the deal and were grandfathered in. Even today, if you can find a piece of property out west with a Spanish Grant, that title search will stand.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
Or not, if you believe the "clever propaganda" shared by AT above.
I for one have little doubt that there is more to story than meets the eye, however I also believe that we do have symptoms of that hot and cold disease, wherein we have one foot on a hot stove and another in a bucket of ice but our average temperature is just fine.
Seems I heard on the good news on the radio that the average American's personal wealth is back where it was in back in 07, at something like $160K/401k.
I think I'd like to see a diagram that shows the spread on that one broken down by age group.
If the imbalances are really as bad as some would claim, then SS is not going to get us where we need to be.
We need something to create jobs and income at the front end of the demographic curve, be it WPA2 or whatever.
And this is one I haven't heard discussed recently, how about a shorter work week, say 32 hours.
I know, efficiency and all that, but just keep letting some folks work 60 hours and pay taxes and subsidize rent for those who don't and try and go out and enjoy a nice relaxing day at the golf course.
Under the current conditions, however I would never advise a young person to waste time and energy waiting for something to change in the way we structure work to get a life.
After all, they know we won't be around to boss them around for much longer. And some folks will still insist that life isn't fair.
Stagflation: Coming Soon To A Market Near You [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
Agreed. A good part of the angst to do with the prospect of rising rates is perhaps unwarranted in light of the possibility that as the expansion continues, the potential rewards become more likely, and the ability to pay the additional risk premium for better access to funding is justified.
As the ratio of equity to labor increases with automation the traditional fears of wage inflation are logically overcome by fears of being left behind by the competition who are busily creating higher value at a lower cost more quickly.
So there should be a willingness to pay a premium for access to capital that will keep the winners on top.
However, the ever increasing productivity will surely not lead to higher wages for labor on any sort of macro scale.
Therefore, to continue growth on a large scale the system must increase the participation of the population on the equity side of the equation.
Absent some clear and present participation in some form of an ownership society, there is a risk of an increasing the proportion of alienated and the attendant risks that are evident in failed systems.
But that's a side note. The point is, the fear of rapidly rising rates due to inflation is not based in what has traditionally driven policy, so as you say, it should be gradual and I believe organic, not in response to some dramatic need for classical intervention, or supply demand ratio, but as a risk sharing premium. At least that is the theory that I am leaning toward.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
But we've already been there, done that. We made a lot of progress, made a of mistakes.
On to the past-modern era. I won't try and present a detailed critique the limitations of Enlightened thinking, but William Barrett did a good job in his 1958 work "Irrational Man".
Once you've covered all the bases defined by logic, its time to get back to what really counts, which is not what's going on outside.
Enlightenment is a good start, but will never take you all the way to where you really want to be.
Lots of unhappy people out there who are still trying to relive the 19th Century without considering the mistakes of the 20th.
Two steps forward, one step back..
http://jan.ucc.nau.edu~jo52/POS254/Enlideals...
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
I think it is fairly clear that for most folks who have invested their own time and energy enough to have some sense that they have in some way made a contribution to the effectiveness of that large and mostly useful machine called the modern economy that sitting back and letting the machine do the work is the way to go.
It took us all the year up until the Industrial Age to figure out how to build the machine capable of relieving man from labor.
And we're supposed to somehow wring our hands and feel bad because all the futurist of the past were right, we don't need to spend all day behind mule with a 1 bottom plow when we can air freight in all the fresh vegetables grown in air conditioned greenhouses we can eat but we don't want to hurt the disciples of Malthus's feelings by just letting everybody eat because of some ill conceived notion about equity that has been proven more effective over the centuries at creating social turmoil than adding value and improving the overall standard of living downstream.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
TVP - Actually, everything you said in the paragraph leading up to this point makes perfect sense.
I differ with you on this point as I believe your measuring stick has not been calibrated to account for the greatly underestimated underutilized latent potential that still remains in the economy.
We have barely scratched the surface with the mineral resources that are yet untapped.
We have the ability to develop advanced energy systems that will enable a quantum leap in low cost energy, just as we did when we harnessed first the ox and most recently fossil fuels which within our lifetime has enabled an increase in standard of living in the developed world.
With the increasing economy of scale, our state of the art economy is a model which can be copied an improved on by the other 95% of the world.
And yet we continue to concern ourselves with the personal business of those who have not participated according to the guidelines of an obsolete industrial age societal model.
I say we continue to move forward without concerning ourselves with the motives ambitions or abilities of others who may have different aspirations opportunities or interests.
Frankly, and this is not directed to you personally, we have a cultural issue here that I would categorize as the opposite of Liberty, and could be called meddlesome.
It does appear to me that for understandable and yet insupportable reasons we have somewhere along the line accepted a lone of reasoning that justifies interference with the so called freedom of others to manage their own lives.
Ironically, this sort of argument very commonly I think most vigorously promoted among those who are somehow concerned with the overbearing reach of the government and yet consider such behavior as acceptable in the world of business as long as profitability is assured and even into private life as those who are not considered "Productive" are fair game for ridicule and worse in the media or in general discourse; the sort of disrespect of fellow humans that would be called bullying if it were to occur in our schools.
And yet any one with a job or investment account that generates enough income to produce a tax bill justifies a lot of our fellow citizens the right to condemn those among us who have not yet achieved such a lofty perch.
If all the energy used to make sure the unwilling or unable are dealt with harshly were instead directed toward increasing the level of personal responsibility via access to the modern tools and opportunity we could quickly and effectively raise all boats.
So what if we got a few stowaways?
It's not like we're going to run out of more important things to do than hold up the entire voyage because of some footdraggers that didn't get their senior discount because they didn't even know how to enter their own password..
Efficiency is secondary, first we gotta do the right deal.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
You are certainly one of the more thoughtful commenters here, and I've learned from your well supported explanations. but in this case I believe you failed to see Hoopers most recent point, which as I understand it is that all those folks that are no longer required to perform manual labor are now available to make other contributions, and can be viewed as potential assets rather than troublesome liabilities.
Now it is possible to use that frame of reference and look around and see who is making good use of their human resources and who is eating their seed corn.
There is plenty of gloom and doom out there yet, but at the same time there are refuges of excellence that continue to advance while Rome continues to burn.
I believe it is safe to bet civil societies that encourage innovation and shared rewards for excellence and minimal punishment for failure, IOW make carrots plentiful and cheap and forget about the cattle prods.
One doesn't have to be a revolutionary to advocate the option of letting follks vote with their feet and making sure they have somewhere to go.
If you can figure that one out, that's what I'm investing in, because that's what works.
Show me a place where people can go because they are considered assets rather than liabilities and that is where they will go. And that is where the real money will be earned.
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
TVP - I've been following along but can't find the reference. Ayn Rand perhaps?
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
And this is a problem because :
It's an essay question, open book. Take your time.
Extra Credit : Per last years annual report, The Social Security Administration projects that there is enough in accounts at this time to pay through 2032 without dipping into principal. These projections were created before the 2% holiday expired on 1 Jan 13.
For 5 extra points, identify a feasible means of increasing the equity in the Trust Fund to extend the life of the fully vested program beyond 2032.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Suppose QE/EG=HE/GW, where EG is Economic Growth.
A better question might be when to get on board.
You do the math.
Next Lesson : What makes an airplane fly?
Helpful Hint : Howard Hughes was very good at this.
http://bit.ly/12utB8J
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
The "costs" seem to be fairly low at this time....at least that's what I heard on NPR Radio yesterday, that short term deposits to the US Treasuries via the latest Treasury Auction this past week came in at the lowest rate ever, .6 Cents/$1000 was how it was expressed on that particular outlier media outlet.
No doubt it is a great deal for those lacking anywhere secure to park assets in an unstable world, which is of course why hopeful depositors from 3rd world countries with Tin Pot dictators as well as guys in 3 piece suits from advanced countries who need to diversify their currency holdings to facilitate modern commerce in what is an increasingly global market, are lined up outside with their checkbooks ready.
The vaults are bursting at the seams, but of course, we need to limit our expenses because someone from WVA lives month to month so budget to build more storage capacity is strictly limited until such time as we have enough money to expand the economy, because what sense does it make to send man to the moon when there are still people living in doublewides and using foodstamps.
Restore Constitutional Sanity.
Start charging small maintenance fees to cover the overhead for keeping deposits safe, and move along with judicious asset allocation and other areas with potential for improvements in efficiency and effectiveness.(lol).
The Trouble With Modern Monetary Theory [View article]
The Debt Paradox That Everyone Should Be Aware Of [View article]
At one time, it was the longest one as I recall, before the SA software was upgraded to handle 1M+ members.
http://seekingalpha.co...