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  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]

    If it stays in this range should get the golden cross in about 2-3 weeks.

    As for institutional ownership, in every quarter last year institutions were net sellers. In the 1st Q of this year, they were net buyers. Not sure that's a trend one way or the other. So far in the 2nd Q, looks like some big buyers and some big sellers. Should find out tomorrow how it nets out.
    Aug 14 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations? [View article]
    "Sorry, Jack, this is not something that is just a few months."

    Guess I'm a little confused about the point of your article. Thought you were referring to Sirius's more recent efforts to attract the Hispanic audience that has only been a few months. The reason for these more recent efforts was that Sirius management more than once very "honestly" said they weren't happy with their performance with respect to the Hispanic market.

    How more honest to you want them to be? They said they weren't happy and were trying a different pricing structure as well as a promotional campaign in Houston - obviously trials to see what works and doesn't. Presumably they will learn from these efforts and adjust. They said it was still a work in progress. Failure comes when you give up - and they haven't. Good for them.
    Aug 9 02:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations? [View article]

    Guess I don't view it as any different than trying to appeal to segments like country, or jazz, or conservative talk, or liberal talk, sports, non-sports, etc. etc. Sirius has altered its line up, added hosts and fired hosts, many times over the years, to better appeal to different segments of the market.

    Imagine if they had badly missed a segment as large as country music fans, or Howard Stern fans. Don't recall ever getting the results of these endeavors -usually find out when the fire someone or drop a channel, then the assumption is it didn't work.

    At this point, as for the Hispanic market, "still working on it" is the best answer shareholders should want. It is too large a market to give up on after a few months.
    Aug 7 06:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations? [View article]

    I would suggest the answer to the broad question posed in the title of this article "Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations", is absolutely NO!

    The concept behind SiriusXM from the beginning of its existence is being able to aggregate demand across the U.S. by appealing to relatively small market segments that are not necessarily viable in local markets. That effort has been a resounding success across most market segments that Sirius has attempted to acquire - 26 million subs say so.

    With the "Hispanic" market, perhaps because that market segment is rather large and already reasonably well served in many major markets with terrestrial radio, perhaps it has been more difficult to appeal to pull them away from "free".

    Shareholders should be pleased that Sirius is trying different things to better appeal to that particular segment. It doesn't seem to be costing much and I hope they keep trying until they get it right. As long as they keep trying different things, maybe they don't consider it a failure.
    Aug 7 05:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback [View article]

    I'm in a time warp.
    Aug 6 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback [View article]

    Based on Maffei's comments today it sure seems like they don't plan on selling back more shares to Sirius anytime soon -- when it gets to "$10", he'll participate. Sounded like some of the bullish retail shareholders.

    Also, it doesn't sound as though they plan on making another offer for the all of Sirius anytime in the near future. Wonder if we should believe him this time?

    He kept using "our" and "we" when referring to things Sirius is doing. Sounds like Liberty is all in for some time - maybe going to the 80% level as Sirius buys back shares
    Aug 6 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback [View article]

    Informative article.
    Aug 5 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Holdings Earnings [View article]
    Used to be a joke, but somewhat true, that Sirius would succeed despite its management, not because of it. Fortunately over the years, they've managed to do enough things right, even as they screw up other things, especially communicating with shareholders, where they are often tone deaf, and arrogant. Mel might have been the only excellent CEO they've had, but even he dismissed retail shareholders and let Frear screw up the financing after the merger.

    Sad that LC had to ask the question, but if he was satisfied, we probably should be as well.
    Aug 4 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Holdings Earnings [View article]

    I believe the relatively small drop in fully-diluted share count is what prompted the Cooperman question. He knew the quarter end number was important in reconciling the aggressive buyback with the reported drop in the average shares.

    Thus my frustration with Sirius management, particularly Frear. For him to not be aware of the importance in these numbers to shareholders is irresponsible. It is confusing, even LC seemed confused, or at least wanted more clarification. When Sirius brags about all the shares that bought back, then shareholders want to see the results in the fully-diluted shares outstanding.

    This shouldn't even be a discussion now, and certainly not worthy of an article pointing out more dilution that doesn't really exist. But it is an issue because Sirius does a poor job of explaining its numbers.

    One thing for us lowly retail investors to not understand and need more clarification - they expect us to be uninformed. LC needing clarification is all together different. Not being prepared to answer the question, makes it worse (wouldn't it have been nice if Frear not only gave out the Quarter end number, but also told us what it was the prior Quarter end in answer to LCs Question). Not even mentioning the ASR makes it even more worse (or is it worser?).

    Confusion seldom benefits stock price performance, even if actual performance is decent.
    Aug 4 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Weakness Presents Sirius XM Buying Opportunity [View article]

    You are starting to sound like Duke with your convert speculation. Beware of the hole that might lead you into. But it sure will be nice after December when we no longer have to hear that stuff, assuming Sirius in their wisdom doesn't replace it with another convert to keep interest expense low (would not be surprised if they did).

    As for the Buyback program, I think Sirius did not do a good job last year, but maybe learned something and are doing better this year.

    As for institutions vs. retail. In every quarter last year, institutions were net sellers, not retail. The 1st Q this year, you are correct, institutions were net buyers, but it remains to be seen whether that is the case in the 2nd Q. Hope so - it provides more comfort I suppose.

    But for the record the smartest investors in Sirius, aside from Liberty, was retail. It was them that were buying the stock in at 10-20 cents, while institutions were shedding shares. It took several quarters after Liberty was on board before they outnumbered retail in ownership.

    For a company that has been dependent on retail to finance its earlier growth, Sirius has continuously dismissed its retail shareholders, and foolishly. If they had gone to the market (open to retail) in Sept 2008 for debt with warrants attached they could have refinanced those maturities due in March 2009 with little problem and considerably less dilution than came from Liberty. Frear's arrogance that still persists prevented that. Their new debt still isn't available to retail.

    Not sure it was the plan as you suggest, but no doubt in my mind that Malone chased away retail with an offer that never had a chance. I just believe Liberty, like Sirius , underestimated the Sirius shareholders, in January including institutions like Omega (still are given the flubbed answer to LC).

    By the way, it wasn't just retail selling on Monday and Tuesday - big blocks moved, one on Tuesday of almost 8 million shares.
    Aug 3 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Weakness Presents Sirius XM Buying Opportunity [View article]

    Regarding the connected vehicle, does anyone outside of Sirius know what services and/or hardware or software they actually are trying to sell to the OEMs? When I first invested in Satellite Radio, I pretty much knew exactly what they would offer and future plans. That programming/services has evolved and gotten better over the years, but I knew what the plan was and was told about it as it changed.

    Maybe you and other investors know what Sirius plans with "connected vehicle", but I sure don't. (Guess "telematics", the old word for it, was worn out after more the 15 years of not producing a viable business model in the industry). Now I know what it might mean for some, but not what Sirius plans.

    I'd assume the OEMS do, and if they know I can guarantee that Sirius competitors know as well. Sometimes it feels as though the present Sirius management treats its shareholders like children that need to be shielded from the real world. But maybe it is because if they tell us the plans and fail (like perhaps the push for Hispanics), we'll ask questions they don't want to answer.

    As an aside, it happens that the stock price has performed pretty badly since that acquisition was announced. Probably a coincidence, but being told every quarter they are marching toward some mysterious goal, isn't all that inspiring.

    There were a few questions that could have been answered much better in the CC, but you made me go back and look at the transcript. Maybe Frear would have been more respectful of "Lee" Cooperman's question, if the operator had identified him properly as Leon - but even I recognized his voice.

    I don't know if its so much they are trying to hide something, rather than a lack of understanding of factors that might influence investment decisions and/or a willingness to discuss those factors. For example, what was there to hide about the ASR. Seems like a positive, except maybe from the perspective they used a lot of cash to buy shares and the price still couldn't break $3.50. Why not make mention of it in the CC and briefly explain it? A pretty significant purchase program, but apparently not worthy of some discussion? And if it does have something to do with the converts, why not say so. Why the mystery? Makes no sense.
    Aug 3 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Weakness Presents Sirius XM Buying Opportunity [View article]

    Just posted a long rambling unorganized comment about Sirius focus on adjusted EBITDA and other things. GAAP EPS may be misleading, but it is important to many investors and that is usually the basis for the headlines in the media.
    Aug 3 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Weakness Presents Sirius XM Buying Opportunity [View article]

    I agree with all the problems with looking at the published P/E and GAAP EPS, but the reality is both of those numbers are important to many investors, as are the headlines in the WSJ, even if those investors are less informed. When those numbers are what generate most of the commentary in the media, from those that are supposedly "informed", it has to have an affect.

    I have no doubt the stock would have done better if the headlines Tuesday and Wednesday had read "Sirius Earnings Increase" rather than "Sirius Earnings Decline". And when you look on Yahoo and see a P/E of 60, that looks expensive and generates uninformed or intentionally misleading articles from wanabe shorts.

    Adjusted EBITDA, and FCF growth may be what should really matter, but GAAP earnings and PE are what get the most attention in the media. It will be a better earnings day when Sirius "beats" EPS or just has a year over year improvement in GAAP earnings. How many thought when Sirius booked the NOLs as profit saw that as a big positive when it made the PE look cheap. A lot given some of the comments from investors on SA after that. Appearances matter, at least short term.

    It is right for management to focus on adjusted EBITDA and FCF, but it might help if they provided a little more color on the things that impact GAAP EPS in the CC as well, rather than waiting for us to dig through the 10Q to figure it out. Just one example, is the substantial charge (non-cash) they took in the 4th Q for the Liberty shares bought back higher than the closing price on Dec 31. Explaining how that impacted EPS then and in subsequent Qs might have helped. They ignored it, except in the 10Q, and even then you had to interpret the meaning of "loss on derivative contracts". Almost like they were embarrassed about the transaction (as they should have been).

    Instead we are left for them to talk in the CC about how great this is, how great that is, we are buying back all these shares and the Sirius world is wonderful - and we get a WSJ headline that says "Sirius Earnings Decline". It creates a disconnect.

    Also, they should not tell us to focus on self pay subs one year, then the next when they look weak, tell us to go back to total net adds. Help us understand why self-pay has been apparently weak and why that is only temporary, if it is temporary, rather than making us wonder how they will meet guidance (well, sort of guidance for self-pay).

    Guess what I'm saying is that Sirius communication strategy with its investors is underwelming. Geez, when their second largest shareholder, Leon Cooperman, is on the call and asks what the outstanding shares are at the end of the Q and about how much of the authorized buyback program is left, and all Frear can do is stumble through the first part and say "we have not released that info yet" to the second part, that is a problem. The amount remaining in authorization is something they have provided in every earnings PR, or CC, since the buyback started, and Frear couldn't just say what it was, rather than making LC (and the rest of us) wait until the 10Q was released a few hours later. Maybe it has something to do with the ASR, that we had to dig through the 10 Q to discover - why not communicate this stuff in the CC? Just sounds unprofessional.
    Aug 3 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Weakness Presents Sirius XM Buying Opportunity [View article]

    My working theory is that some large shareholder was selling on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the Fed and jobs numbers, not expecting any blowout numbers from Sirius but anticipating some news that would raise interest rates and stocks like Sirius. which is borrowing to finance buybacks and might get hit on higher interest rates.

    That screwed up the TA from a trader's view (closing well below the open on Tuesday), and despite an attempt to make a comeback on Wednesday, because it couldn't breakout above the 200 DMA on decent earnings, it looked bad (people wonder "what's in the data that I missed") so when the market turned down big on Thursday and failed to recover this morning, Sirius broke down through the 50 DMA and while it bounced off the 100 DMA, it finished pretty weak.

    The risk for shorts (or longs thinking of selling and buying back lower) is that Sirius can accelerate the buyback at any time and take it back up, but without the buyback, the TA sucks.

    So I don't believe we missed anything. The numbers were good, not great, probably justifying a price above $3.50, but because of the market and some irrational fear of the Fed (and because the Sirius numbers weren't great), we are in for a rough time until the market stabilizes ir Sirius accelerates the buyback again. Could happen next week or next month, but still seems most believe the market is headed higher - they just want to buy lower first.
    Aug 1 11:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Weakness Presents Sirius XM Buying Opportunity [View article]

    I do believe the buybacks impact the TA in a positive way, and that's why breaking the 50 is probably an even bigger deal, except that the buyback could be sufficient to turn the tide to the upside with Sirius sooner than it otherwise would, if traders were the only ones playing it. I believe that is one of the big reasons the market has not seen a bigger correction for some time - there are a lot of S&P companies borrowing money to support buybacks and buying more on dips is better than buying at highs, even for a company buying it's own stock.

    These buybacks screws with those following TA - just when they think the market is going to break, it corporate BBs pull it back up and everyone waiting for the big sell off have to chase it up. Market momo can bring up stocks not even engaged in a BB.

    Just listening to the CNBC Fast Money TA crew now explaining why this is the time for the big one. I think I've heard them say the same thing at least 3 times this year, and so far they've been wrong.

    So far "technical" selling or just selling on fundamental fears have not overcome the upside pressure buyback programs have had in the last couple of years. That is also one of the fears of higher interest rates - it could cut off some of those buyback programs, but it hasn't yet, and companies, including Sirius, still have enough cash to keep it going for several more months.

    Of course it is now August, so who knows?
    Aug 1 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment