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Jack10000

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  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    CN,

    Anyway, it seems that the change is in the way they are explaining change in churn, up or down, and not necessarily in the way it is calculated. To me the explanations this year make more sense.
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    CN,

    I believe I pointed out a year ago that Sirius's explanation for lower self-pay wasn't consistent with reported lower churn in the 3rd Q - that lower self-pay because existing subs converting to trial should result in higher churn, and there had to be an offset of even lower churn with other subs.

    Maybe someone pointed that out to them and they got it right this year ;-). At least this year's explanation sounds consistent with lower self pay, and they are explaining the offsets, when they exist.
    Dec 12, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Car Sales Should Help Sirius Meet Subscriber Guidance [View article]
    CN,

    So do you think Sirius will be above or below $3.50 in January 2016? What about above $4.00?

    As I suggested months ago, Sirius should able to buyback shares this year at or under $3.50 on average. Still believe they could be down to near 5 billion shares by the end of next year.

    The options premiums, as sad has they have been, were a good predictor this year of where the stock was going to trade. They aren't predicting any great movements next year up or down, either, although they do seem to suggest a little more optimism to the upside, than downside.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Car Sales Should Help Sirius Meet Subscriber Guidance [View article]
    Ah, the days of Peter Lynch. Seems CEOs today much rather be given options or restricted stock than use their own money to buy the stock. Mel learned that lesson well.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Facing Coast To Coast Setbacks [View article]
    Seems pretty simple proposition to me. The salesman asks the used car buyer to provide his contact information, along with phone number, on a form that explicitly says he agrees that Sirius can contact him with offers to purchase the service at a later date, with no obligation to accept the offer or even listen (footnote talks about binding arbitration, etc.). "Sign here and I'll activate the service. Again you are under no obligation to purchase the service." So much other stuff that the salesman talks about after the purchase it would be no problem. Something for nothing.

    If someone says - "no, I don't want the free service" - then they probably aren't good prospects to purchase later, and Sirius saves the cost of contacting them. Can't imagine anyone saying, "I would like the free service, and I'll give you the phone number, and Sirius can contact me, but if I have a disagreement about the trial or the way Sirius approached me, I don't agree with binding arbitration." It is not a roadblock, just a minor screen.
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Facing Coast To Coast Setbacks [View article]
    CN,

    I'd bet they already pay something to Elvis and Sinatra - both estates are very protective of their names and probably have some agreement to not only name the channels, but use their music. As for calculating damages, there is always some presumption that those damage have to do something to mitigate damages. Flo and Eddy seem to be the first to attempt that. Further, terrestrial still plays the same music for free - how is it that Sirius is damaging these artists and terrestrial is not? Also, the present music royalty rates are calculated based on Sirius getting some of this stuff free - it seems likely that any future settlements would have to take into account higher payments for the old stuff, if ruled that way, and probably would result in some offset in the newer stuff - because margins for Sirius and others to way into the royalty rate decision.

    As for the other lawsuit regarding marketing, isn't that about some guy getting calls from Sirius that was on do not call list? First, if he gave Sirius his phone number to get free service for 3 months, then there probably is some presumption that he agreed to get phone calls, or he wouldn't have given Sirius his phone number. But if the court were to rule that Sirius has to be more explicit in informing the promotional sub that he/she will be called as part of getting the free sub, then that actually might work in Sirius's favor financially. Wouldn't it be better to only give the free sub to those that actually want it enough to accept marketing from Sirius? While it might result in lower activations for free subs, it should help the uptake rate for paying subs. Further, Sirius would only be calling those that might be interested, and therefore reduce the costs for telemarketing. Heck, I'd make that change now whether they win or lose the lawsuit.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Facing Coast To Coast Setbacks [View article]
    CN,

    Doubt the cost to Sirius will be serious, even if they lose. Oldies aren't that big a piece of their costs.

    Big question over the next week is what happens when those converts mature and that debt that has been the main bogeyman for the shorts goes away. I'm thinking not much of anything, except Sirius may have been a little less aggressive in recent months on their buyback, and we'll see a more aggressive program in December - thus higher share prices going into year-end.
    Nov 24, 2014. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Retail Holders Now Own Less Than 15% [View article]
    Hernje,

    Thanks for pointing out the obvious.

    Has zero to do with my point - that the summary data used by SF from the Nasdaq site for the 3rd Q overstated institutional ownership.
    Nov 18, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Retail Holders Now Own Less Than 15% [View article]
    SF,

    The data from the Nasdaq site that indicates 27.7% institutional ownership overstates that ownership as a result of a few significant errors.

    Two of the most notable errors is that it double counts ownership by Leon Cooperman/Omega and SAC/Point72. It seems it hasn't picked up the name change in the filings and as a result still includes older filings. So instead of LC/Omega increasing ownership in the 3rd Q (they show Omega as new position), he actually sold about 24 million shares.

    SAC increased ownership by 20 million shares (under the new name Point72, but it also shows an increase of 35.8 million under the old SAC name (dated 3/31, but it still gets in the totals/changes for this period the way the site works).

    Then there is ZBI that has data that is dated 12/31 showing an increase of 32.2 million as a new position. I have no idea if they changed their name or just sold sometime in the past and just haven't reported since then, but clearly that increase for the 3rd Q isn't valid.

    I didn't look past the top holders, but just in the case of Cooperman and Omega institutional ownership is overstated by 117.8 million shares, and the "increase" in ownership during the 3rd Q, when ZBI is included, is overstated by about 125 million - such that instead of institutions net adding to positions in the 3rd Q, they were actually net sellers once again.
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Management Alters View On Subscribers [View article]
    SF,

    The aggressiveness of the Liberty purchases, the buybacks, and the Malone offer/takeback have been the biggest predictor of movements in the stock price since Liberty started with open market purchases many months ago. When Liberty/Sirius was aggressive with the purchases/buybacks the price went up, when they slowed down or stopped, the price went down.

    Sure, there may be some convert holders that use that position to trade the stock, but the vast majority of convertible "bond" holders, place a short against their position when they put it on, and leave it there until the bonds mature. It is the nature of those funds that hold convertible bonds. Due to the huge drop in Sirius in 2009, no doubt some of the Sirius convert bond holders covered their short in the pennies, maybe sold the bonds to others and the process renewed.

    The convert boogeyman will be gone soon, fortunately. But I'd guess there will still be periods when Sirius turns up and turns down the buyback program.
    Nov 3, 2014. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Management Alters View On Subscribers [View article]
    CN/SF

    One of the great benefits of having the converts gone is it will put an end to all those "converts are controlling the price" conspiracies.
    Nov 2, 2014. 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Reports Earnings, Raises Guidance [View article]
    Just hope they don't do another convert to replace the existing one, although the lower interest rate might tempt them - using convert debt to buy back shares, that might convert into more shares doesn't seem too smart, unless the convert price is well above where it is trading.
    Oct 30, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Reports Earnings, Raises Guidance [View article]
    CN,

    Sirius has been running low cash, first using it to do the buyback, then using the revolver effectively. and they still have plenty left there. They tend to run up the revolver, then raise new debt, and take down the revolver. But also believe they could raise new debt at any time, said that over a month ago before rates go up. Then high yield got more expensive a few weeks ago, but some of that was related to all the high yield with the frackers getting more risky. Not sure how that would impact rates Sirius might be able to get.
    Oct 30, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Reports Earnings, Raises Guidance [View article]
    For what's worth, probably not much, Cramer just said stop trading Sirius and buy it, or something like that.

    Buyback was slow in October, half normal pace, should accelerate in next couple of months.
    Oct 29, 2014. 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    Not sure it made so much difference for this year, but Ford offering 2 years free on 2015 models, some of which have been for sale for a while, defers those subs ability to switch from paid promotional to self pay. Presumably its a better deal for Sirius - probably lower ARPU in exchange for more subs over a longer period, but paid promotional, not self-pay. That and the outperformance of Chrysler which also has some longer term paid promotional subs probably is a factor.

    Anyway, it was sure looking like self pay was coming in well below total, so waiting for Sirius to acknowledge it. I was just glad it was an increase in total and not another miss on the self pay, at least so far.
    Sep 17, 2014. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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