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Jack10000

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  • Sirius XM Increases Push To Activate Dormant Radios [View article]
    CN,

    Your quote ""SIRIUS XM shall not engage in harassing or abusive Save attempts and a Customer Service Representative shall promptly and without delay, move on the Save attempt or Cancellation, depending on the circumstances, when a Consumer declines a rebuttal offer;"

    makes it pretty clear that at least with this complaint, it relates to someone calling Sirius to cancel, rather than Sirius calling a sub to push for the adoption of a higher priced service, or even calling at all. The guy made it up either because he's a troll, or short. Over the last 15 years I've seen a lot of stuff made up, positive and negative by message board posters on Sirius.

    Getting a low-priced offer comes by email after cancellation, or when someone calls to cancel. That isn't what the guy was claiming, thus the skepticism - he claimed Sirius called him aggressively to upgrade to a more expensive plan.

    As for the TA, Sirius has failed every time it has reached 3.65 for a year now. Today it closed above it. Would have been better if it was a little higher, but still qualifies as a breakout from solid resistance (just happens to be close to the fake Malone ratio offer). If confirmed tomorrow with some follow through, could move into the 3.80s. $4 will be a tough nut to crack, unless they get a lot more aggressive with the buyback.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Increases Push To Activate Dormant Radios [View article]
    CN,

    As I mentioned above, I've got 3 cancelled subs, and have never been called to renew (some under a different account than my active receivers). I get emails galore. Also, I have never been called to upgrade the package, and on my most recent subscription initially I had everything free for a year, including some of the telematics data services, with a new car purchase. After the year, I moved to the basic Sirius package with no hassle, no calls. Just emails - I don't consider that harassment.

    The occasional times I have called Sirius CS, I have been asked about reactivating a radio, and upgrades, but was never pushed. It does take time to get through to them, however, especially with issues.

    I think the reason most of the Sirius actual subs are viewing this guy's comments with suspicion is because it is not consistent with their experience.

    As for the lawsuit, I saw nothing in there about Sirius calling people aggressively. Mostly the issue was about them automatically renewing the subscription without notification. This year I received mail notification for all renewals. I believe that was the major change in customer services.

    Fair for subscribers to believe the guy was making stuff up, or at least exaggerating.
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Increases Push To Activate Dormant Radios [View article]
    CN,

    Sirius has never ever called me, with 3 inactive receivers. I get emails offering deals almost every week it seems, but no calls. I also have 3 subs, and they have never tried to get me to pay for a more expensive package by calling me.

    Sirius is looking like it may breakout after a year in this trading range. It needs to close above 3.65.
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tiered Pricing Work At Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    "I do believe that the rapid buying - first by Malone, and subsequently by Sirius during the buyback, pushed the stock to unrealistic prices. "


    So you finally agree with me.
    Jan 20, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Signs Second OEM For Connected Vehicle Services [View article]
    CN,

    Duke is just in search of a new boogeyman now that the converts are gone.
    Jan 7, 2015. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Signs Second OEM For Connected Vehicle Services [View article]
    CN,

    Self-pay really did finish the year pretty strong. Could be some of those GM trials from 1st half finally getting converted. Frear also said it was a combo of higher conversion, churn and OEM sales. Don't think he mentioned ARPU in that contest, but addressed it elsewhere when the analyst asked one of your favorite questions. It is a matter of balance and maximizing cash flow, which is should be, so I think Sirius is focused on the correct metric.

    Also, I think Frear addressed why they were holding off on issuing more debt until the converts matured, but that excuse is now gone, so might see it soon.

    Just wish they had the courage to step up with stronger guidance, then beat that. A lot of selling pressure today, probably held up by a return to the buyback. Maybe hard for some to justify waiting another year for them to beat guidance again, only to see them issue weak guidance in 2016.
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Signs Second OEM For Connected Vehicle Services [View article]
    CN,

    Self-pay turned out to be pretty good, relative to the weak guidance, but as expected they start 2015 with even weaker guidance. Stock should be up a lot more given the market and pretty good sub results. But its that weak guidance (not just the subs) that isn't well received, understandably. Maybe Maffei will be a little more upbeat than Frear this morning.
    Jan 7, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Short Interest Continues To Decline [View article]
    CN,

    Disappointing start to the New Year so far. I'd guess that Sirius will report 4th Q subs and issue guidance on Tuesday if history repeats. Might mean they aren't in the market today buying shares - given past comments about not being able to buy during quiet periods and other comments about resuming buybacks after issuing new guidance. Could be market related, but that excuse is getting tired and the market is essentially flat as I type. Sirius seems to go down with the market, but it has been a while since it has hit a new 52 week high when the market does.

    Or if history really repeats, maybe we'll get a new Malone offer at COB today.
    Jan 2, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    CN,

    Happy New Year.
    Dec 26, 2014. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    CN,

    Anyway, it seems that the change is in the way they are explaining change in churn, up or down, and not necessarily in the way it is calculated. To me the explanations this year make more sense.
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    CN,

    I believe I pointed out a year ago that Sirius's explanation for lower self-pay wasn't consistent with reported lower churn in the 3rd Q - that lower self-pay because existing subs converting to trial should result in higher churn, and there had to be an offset of even lower churn with other subs.

    Maybe someone pointed that out to them and they got it right this year ;-). At least this year's explanation sounds consistent with lower self pay, and they are explaining the offsets, when they exist.
    Dec 12, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Car Sales Should Help Sirius Meet Subscriber Guidance [View article]
    CN,

    So do you think Sirius will be above or below $3.50 in January 2016? What about above $4.00?

    As I suggested months ago, Sirius should able to buyback shares this year at or under $3.50 on average. Still believe they could be down to near 5 billion shares by the end of next year.

    The options premiums, as sad has they have been, were a good predictor this year of where the stock was going to trade. They aren't predicting any great movements next year up or down, either, although they do seem to suggest a little more optimism to the upside, than downside.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Car Sales Should Help Sirius Meet Subscriber Guidance [View article]
    Ah, the days of Peter Lynch. Seems CEOs today much rather be given options or restricted stock than use their own money to buy the stock. Mel learned that lesson well.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Facing Coast To Coast Setbacks [View article]
    Seems pretty simple proposition to me. The salesman asks the used car buyer to provide his contact information, along with phone number, on a form that explicitly says he agrees that Sirius can contact him with offers to purchase the service at a later date, with no obligation to accept the offer or even listen (footnote talks about binding arbitration, etc.). "Sign here and I'll activate the service. Again you are under no obligation to purchase the service." So much other stuff that the salesman talks about after the purchase it would be no problem. Something for nothing.

    If someone says - "no, I don't want the free service" - then they probably aren't good prospects to purchase later, and Sirius saves the cost of contacting them. Can't imagine anyone saying, "I would like the free service, and I'll give you the phone number, and Sirius can contact me, but if I have a disagreement about the trial or the way Sirius approached me, I don't agree with binding arbitration." It is not a roadblock, just a minor screen.
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Facing Coast To Coast Setbacks [View article]
    CN,

    I'd bet they already pay something to Elvis and Sinatra - both estates are very protective of their names and probably have some agreement to not only name the channels, but use their music. As for calculating damages, there is always some presumption that those damage have to do something to mitigate damages. Flo and Eddy seem to be the first to attempt that. Further, terrestrial still plays the same music for free - how is it that Sirius is damaging these artists and terrestrial is not? Also, the present music royalty rates are calculated based on Sirius getting some of this stuff free - it seems likely that any future settlements would have to take into account higher payments for the old stuff, if ruled that way, and probably would result in some offset in the newer stuff - because margins for Sirius and others to way into the royalty rate decision.

    As for the other lawsuit regarding marketing, isn't that about some guy getting calls from Sirius that was on do not call list? First, if he gave Sirius his phone number to get free service for 3 months, then there probably is some presumption that he agreed to get phone calls, or he wouldn't have given Sirius his phone number. But if the court were to rule that Sirius has to be more explicit in informing the promotional sub that he/she will be called as part of getting the free sub, then that actually might work in Sirius's favor financially. Wouldn't it be better to only give the free sub to those that actually want it enough to accept marketing from Sirius? While it might result in lower activations for free subs, it should help the uptake rate for paying subs. Further, Sirius would only be calling those that might be interested, and therefore reduce the costs for telemarketing. Heck, I'd make that change now whether they win or lose the lawsuit.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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