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Jack10000

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  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    Heck, Jan 3.50 calls are only selling for 23-26 cents - 15 cent premium - only 15 cents between now and Jan? The naysayers aren't any better - the Jan 3.50 puts are only 10-16 cents. No pops and no drops if the options say anything.
    Sep 15 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    Just disappointing the options don't reflect the optimism of the longs or the negativity of the shorts, like they did in the last few years.

    Seem to be saying it ain't going to far away from where it is now either "soon", or longer than soon, however it's defined...
    Sep 12 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    I don't think the ratings companies would get too excited if Sirius made it clear the new debt would replace the converts going away in 3 months. Sirius has said in the past they may temporarily exceed targeted debt ratio. Debt buyers pay attention to the fundamentals even more than equity buyers, and subs are part of the fundamentals. I also believe they had to deal with the divergence in total vs self-pay, that clearly was developing.

    Last year they let sub expectations rise to unrealistic levels in the 3rd Q, which turned out to be great for those that sold, including Frear and Liberty (remember they set the terms - the range - for buyback before sub announcement, and reduced self-pay guidance), but not so great for those that held.

    As you pointed out in this article, total subs no doubt would benefit from the higher new car sales, raising expectations for Sirius. In some ways this cools expectations for self-pay, although it does provide some assurance that at least they will meet that level this year, something that was looking doubtful after the 2nd Q report.
    Sep 10 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    As I said above, another reason for the update today could be a debt offering coming before then end of the Q, or at least before the next earnings CC. They may want to do it well ahead of the convert debt maturing in Dec. Some still believe rates will rise into year end.
    Sep 9 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    The reality is that Sirius was running ahead of guidance for total subs in the 1st half and behind in self-pay, assuming they were both 1.25 million - they probably could have increased total sub guidance a month ago with some confidence - not sure they learned that much more in August, even with the strong sales.

    Another reason for announcing the improved guidance today might be a coming debt offering. They would be required to provide an update on guidance to debt buyers and to do that they would have to disclose to the public as well. Of course they could have just provided the same old guidance to the debt holders, but the increased guidance might give them a little better deal.
    Sep 9 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    Timing is a little strange actually. Must be a very strong 1st couple of months of the Q - certainly wouldn't have increased guidance on self-pay based on 1st half performance.

    Might have thought they would have waited until the end of the Q to increase guidance, along with a pre-announcement on the actual subs. Makes me think they wanted to stock up for some reason, sooner than later.

    Another reason is that perhaps this allows them to legally continue buying through earnings announcement, as they seem to have done in prior quarters when they reiterated guidance near the Quarter end.
    Sep 9 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    CN,

    So how did you know that Sirius would increase guidance today?
    Sep 9 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    SF,

    If it stays in this range should get the golden cross in about 2-3 weeks.

    As for institutional ownership, in every quarter last year institutions were net sellers. In the 1st Q of this year, they were net buyers. Not sure that's a trend one way or the other. So far in the 2nd Q, looks like some big buyers and some big sellers. Should find out tomorrow how it nets out.
    Aug 14 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations? [View article]
    CN,
    "Sorry, Jack, this is not something that is just a few months."

    Guess I'm a little confused about the point of your article. Thought you were referring to Sirius's more recent efforts to attract the Hispanic audience that has only been a few months. The reason for these more recent efforts was that Sirius management more than once very "honestly" said they weren't happy with their performance with respect to the Hispanic market.

    How more honest to you want them to be? They said they weren't happy and were trying a different pricing structure as well as a promotional campaign in Houston - obviously trials to see what works and doesn't. Presumably they will learn from these efforts and adjust. They said it was still a work in progress. Failure comes when you give up - and they haven't. Good for them.
    Aug 9 02:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations? [View article]
    CN,

    Guess I don't view it as any different than trying to appeal to segments like country, or jazz, or conservative talk, or liberal talk, sports, non-sports, etc. etc. Sirius has altered its line up, added hosts and fired hosts, many times over the years, to better appeal to different segments of the market.

    Imagine if they had badly missed a segment as large as country music fans, or Howard Stern fans. Don't recall ever getting the results of these endeavors -usually find out when the fire someone or drop a channel, then the assumption is it didn't work.

    At this point, as for the Hispanic market, "still working on it" is the best answer shareholders should want. It is too large a market to give up on after a few months.
    Aug 7 06:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations? [View article]
    CN,

    I would suggest the answer to the broad question posed in the title of this article "Are Sirius XM's Efforts To Segment The Market Falling Short Of Expectations", is absolutely NO!

    The concept behind SiriusXM from the beginning of its existence is being able to aggregate demand across the U.S. by appealing to relatively small market segments that are not necessarily viable in local markets. That effort has been a resounding success across most market segments that Sirius has attempted to acquire - 26 million subs say so.

    With the "Hispanic" market, perhaps because that market segment is rather large and already reasonably well served in many major markets with terrestrial radio, perhaps it has been more difficult to appeal to pull them away from "free".

    Shareholders should be pleased that Sirius is trying different things to better appeal to that particular segment. It doesn't seem to be costing much and I hope they keep trying until they get it right. As long as they keep trying different things, maybe they don't consider it a failure.
    Aug 7 05:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback [View article]
    CN,

    I'm in a time warp.
    Aug 6 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback [View article]
    CN,

    Based on Maffei's comments today it sure seems like they don't plan on selling back more shares to Sirius anytime soon -- when it gets to "$10", he'll participate. Sounded like some of the bullish retail shareholders.

    Also, it doesn't sound as though they plan on making another offer for the all of Sirius anytime in the near future. Wonder if we should believe him this time?

    He kept using "our" and "we" when referring to things Sirius is doing. Sounds like Liberty is all in for some time - maybe going to the 80% level as Sirius buys back shares
    Aug 6 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback [View article]
    CN,

    Informative article.
    Aug 5 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sirius XM Holdings Earnings [View article]
    AP,
    Used to be a joke, but somewhat true, that Sirius would succeed despite its management, not because of it. Fortunately over the years, they've managed to do enough things right, even as they screw up other things, especially communicating with shareholders, where they are often tone deaf, and arrogant. Mel might have been the only excellent CEO they've had, but even he dismissed retail shareholders and let Frear screw up the financing after the merger.

    Sad that LC had to ask the question, but if he was satisfied, we probably should be as well.
    Aug 4 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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