MLPs And Interest Rates, How Right Is Mr. Gundlach? [View article]
"My starting premise for anything is that I need to prove it to myself..."
That is certainly a requirement. But do you consider doing the opposite - falsifying it? That is, marshalling counter arguments to show it to be false? One needs to do this to counter the human tendency for confirmation bias.
Look Out For Lower Q2 Dividend From Northern Tier Energy [View article]
What happens when an accident shuts the refinery for an extended period? Does the company hold a stockpile for just such an emergency? Even if it does, how could it predict how long it would take to return to operation?
Northern Tier Energy: A Refinery MLP With A 19% Yield [View article]
What happens when NTI's only refinery goes down? Maintenance or accident, this would be a major blow to revenues. While the distribution is tempting, the concentration of revenues in one asset is too large a risk for me.
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
If you are concerned about the business model of LINE, you might also be concerned about the other E&P MLPs (BBEP, QRE, VNR, etc), in which case the midstream (pipeline) MLPs might suit you better. There are many excellent MLPs in this category, such as EPD, ETE, KMP. Here is the latest work by Ron Hiram on EPD: http://seekingalpha.co...
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
Elliott is referring to IRS rules. There is no statutory requirement for a partnership to distribute anything. However, there may well be a contractual agreement for the partnership to distribute some or all of the distributable cash flow (DCF) to the partners. Kinder Morgan has such an agreement, for example. The catch is that the board of directors decides what this means, because there is no standard (i.e. GAAP) definition of DCF.
Highfields Capital Is Wrong Because This Digital Cloud REIT Ain't Going Nowhere But Up [View article]
According to S&P, AVB has 55% debt and DLR has 58% debt.
DLR payout ratio (of FFO) is 57%. AVB payout ratio is 36%, but that is down from 156% in 2009, after which it dropped its dividend for 3 straight years. Again, I don't think it is a valid comparison to look at FCF with a REIT.
Finally, look at the FFO history of AVB vs DLR. AVB has been a roller coaster, DLR is steadily up to the right. To my way of thinking it is AVB that is not a sleep-well-at-night REIT, but DLR is.
Dividend Growth Investors - Prepare For The Correction [View article]
Invest Yourself,
I like your strategy and use it myself. There are always pricing anomalies that you can look for and benefit from. There have been several such instances this year that I have taken advantage of, some to augment existing positions, another to start a new position. I offer these to give you an idea of what I look for.
First is LO. In February LO was hit by concerns that it would essentially be run out of business due to the possibility that menthol would be banned from cigarettes by the FDA. The price dropped from the low 40s to 38, but menthol was not banned. This was a repeat of the same scare from several years earlier, and nothing came of it then either. Price stabilized at 38, with yield slightly above 5%, and that is where I started a position.
Second and third are two stocks that are both being hit by bear raids - LINE/LNCO, and DLR. I have taken advantage of their temporary mis-pricing to the downside to add to my positions.
I could not have done any of this if I did not keep some dry powder handy at all times. I am willing to be less than 100% invested because my experience has shown that Mr Market can be counted on to offer bargain prices, if you are prepared to wait and are alert when opportunities are presented.
How To Take Some Of The Risk Out Of Tobacco Investing [View article]
Over the last 10 years, the only year that free cash flow covered the dividend was 2007. Total stockholder equity is negative the last 4 years and 6 of the last 10 (Morningstar). VGR issues debt to pay the dividend. This is NOT a sustainable business.
Highfields Capital Is Wrong Because This Digital Cloud REIT Ain't Going Nowhere But Up [View article]
I topped up my position this morning. Thank you short sellers for the gift. Every time DLR does a 50% price retracement I buy more. So far this has been a winning strategy.
Looking At Fundamental Questions In MLP Investment [View article]
Owning LNCO does not put you in the pipeline segment. LINE/LNCO is exploration and production, not pipeline.
MLPs And Interest Rates, How Right Is Mr. Gundlach? [View article]
That is certainly a requirement. But do you consider doing the opposite - falsifying it? That is, marshalling counter arguments to show it to be false? One needs to do this to counter the human tendency for confirmation bias.
Look Out For Lower Q2 Dividend From Northern Tier Energy [View article]
Look Out For Lower Q2 Dividend From Northern Tier Energy [View article]
This is one risk I am not willing to take.
Ugly Charts [View article]
http://bit.ly/17xPLYZ
Northern Tier Energy: A Refinery MLP With A 19% Yield [View article]
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
Highfields Capital Is Wrong Because This Digital Cloud REIT Ain't Going Nowhere But Up [View article]
DLR payout ratio (of FFO) is 57%. AVB payout ratio is 36%, but that is down from 156% in 2009, after which it dropped its dividend for 3 straight years. Again, I don't think it is a valid comparison to look at FCF with a REIT.
Finally, look at the FFO history of AVB vs DLR. AVB has been a roller coaster, DLR is steadily up to the right. To my way of thinking it is AVB that is not a sleep-well-at-night REIT, but DLR is.
Highfields Capital Is Wrong Because This Digital Cloud REIT Ain't Going Nowhere But Up [View article]
GAAP valuation measures are not the standard financial metics for REITs. You need to look at Funds From Operations (FFO).
Dividend Growth Investors - Prepare For The Correction [View article]
I like your strategy and use it myself. There are always pricing anomalies that you can look for and benefit from. There have been several such instances this year that I have taken advantage of, some to augment existing positions, another to start a new position. I offer these to give you an idea of what I look for.
First is LO. In February LO was hit by concerns that it would essentially be run out of business due to the possibility that menthol would be banned from cigarettes by the FDA. The price dropped from the low 40s to 38, but menthol was not banned. This was a repeat of the same scare from several years earlier, and nothing came of it then either. Price stabilized at 38, with yield slightly above 5%, and that is where I started a position.
Second and third are two stocks that are both being hit by bear raids - LINE/LNCO, and DLR. I have taken advantage of their temporary mis-pricing to the downside to add to my positions.
I could not have done any of this if I did not keep some dry powder handy at all times. I am willing to be less than 100% invested because my experience has shown that Mr Market can be counted on to offer bargain prices, if you are prepared to wait and are alert when opportunities are presented.
Laws Of Cap Rate Compression And Several REITs With Mispriced Risk [View article]
How To Take Some Of The Risk Out Of Tobacco Investing [View article]
Highfields Capital Is Wrong Because This Digital Cloud REIT Ain't Going Nowhere But Up [View article]
How To Take Some Of The Risk Out Of Tobacco Investing [View article]