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  • Global X Scientific Beta ETFs Crushing Their Benchmarks  [View article]
    There is a very simple way to get 'smart beta' without taking a chance on any of the new products. Simply invest in the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index. There are two options that I know of: XLP and RHS. XLP is index weighted, RHS is equal weighted. (VDC is not limited to the S&P 500 so I have not studied it.)

    XLP has been around since Dec 1998, RHS since Nov 2006. XLP has two bull markets and 2 bear markets under its belt, RHS 1 bear and 2 bulls. Not as much history as SPY, but pretty good. How have they done?

    RHS has not been around for 10 years, so annualized total returns with dividend reinvestment starting at its inception are:

    RHS: 12.27%
    SPY: 5.79%
    XLP: 10.04%

    For someone like me who is retired and interested primarily in current income, one could have taken the dividends as spendable cash instead of reinvesting. If you had done that, then for each $1 invested in the 3 choices, you would have received a total distribution of:

    RHS: $0.26
    SPY: $0.19
    XLP: $0.28

    SA author Ploutos has written a series of articles (sample is here [1]) about the low volatility anomaly that is applicable to consumer staples. He does not mention consumer staples specifically but his study encompasses this lower volatility sector.

    [1] http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 31, 2016. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads Capital: Liquidation Could Lead To Big Returns  [View article]
    Nick Schorsch strikes again.
    Jan 29, 2016. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Wrong With The U.S. Stock Market  [View article]
    One sector that is strong and getting stronger is Consumer Staples: http://schrts.co/lVybDZ
    Jan 29, 2016. 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J&J Should Not Consider Splitting Its Business  [View article]
    Has MO ever been AAA rated?
    Jan 29, 2016. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Explaining The Action In MLPL  [View article]
    kuprat,

    Congratulations on making your first comment. I look forward to conversing with someone who is willing to do original research, which it appears that you have.

    There are two Wells Fargo BDC Indexes. Quotes and charts are available for both at bigcharts. One is the price return index, symbol WFBDCPX[1], the other is the total return index, symbol WFBDC[2]. BDCL is linked to WFBDCPX.

    WFBDC closed at 1966 on 12/30/15[3] and hit a low of 1679 on 1/20/16[4]. This is the index that you found.

    WFBDCPX closed at 712.78 on 12/30/15[5] and hit a low of 607.55 on 1/20/16[6].

    UBS publishes the valuation dates for its ETNs. I had assumed, like you, that the December date would be the 31st, but UBS had other ideas and declared the 30th[7].

    [1] http://tinyurl.com/j4q...
    [2] http://tinyurl.com/jvx...
    [3] http://tinyurl.com/jbx...
    [4] http://tinyurl.com/z4m...
    [5] http://tinyurl.com/jtd...
    [6] http://tinyurl.com/h5f...
    [7] http://tinyurl.com/hsf...
    Jan 28, 2016. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Mining The CCC List: Part 2 - The Contenders  [View article]
    If you are looking for consistent earnings and dividends then it is hard to beat General Mills (GIS), which has paid a dividend for 115 consecutive years and never once reduced it.
    Jan 28, 2016. 01:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An (Old) Way To Pick (New) Stocks  [View article]
    Institutions such as corporations tend to have institutional memory. The older the company, the more institutional memory it is likely to have. This memory can be likened to wisdom. As a company accumulates wisdom it is more and more likely to have encountered current conditions at some time in the past and to have a store of applicable strategies to consult. This attribute might help explain the Lindy Effect.
    Jan 27, 2016. 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Explaining The Action In MLPL  [View article]
    I completely agree about the risk. My comment about BDCL was simply to look at what has happened, not to predict what could happen. BDCL, CEFL, and MORL could suffer the same fate as MLPL.
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing For Retirement: Would Benjamin Graham Like Modern Portfolio Theory?  [View article]
    You might be interested in reading the articles written last year by SA author Ploutos, in which he demonstrated that, counter to MPT, low volatility = higher return, and high volatility = lower return[1].

    After reading this and the other articles in his series, I compared long term returns of SPY vs XLP over the lifetime of XLP. Guess which won? XLP.

    [1] http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Explaining The Action In MLPL  [View article]
    Left Banker,

    "CEFs are just too volatile to not expect a 30% intraday decline at some point."

    The 30% decline refers to the change in the index over one month, not one day. The formula starts with the closing value of the index on the last trading day of the preceding month, and tracks the index value throughout the succeeding month. If at any time during that month, the index reaches a loss of 30% from the close at the end of the preceding month, then the ETN is automatically accelerated.

    You mentioned BDCL. Its index (the Wells Fargo BDC Index) closed at 712.7804 on Dec 30 2015. A decline of -30%, equivalent to -60% in the ETN, would put the index at 498.946. The low this month so far was on Jan 20, at 607.5488. That is a loss of -14.76%, or -29.5% in the ETN. The index closed today at 661.93. So far BDCL is a long way from automatic acceleration.
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance: When To Sell And What To Buy  [View article]
    If the survey had a choice for 'none', that would have been my answer. I believe I own only quality BDCs and I have no plan to sell. I invest for income only, not for capital gains, so as long as my BDCs are generating reliable income, I have no incentive to sell. Long GBDC, GSBD, HTGC, MAIN, TCPC. Looking to start a position in PFLT.
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An (Old) Way To Pick (New) Stocks  [View article]
    Yes I agree about inflation. A never-changing dividend would be no different than a perpetual bond coupon.

    However, as Robert Allan Schwartz has demonstrated on his web site [1], multi-decade dividend increase streaks are hard to come by. It is very unlikely that any company could keep up an increase streak for 115 years. Too much could go wrong.

    [1] http://tinyurl.com/bot...
    Jan 26, 2016. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An (Old) Way To Pick (New) Stocks  [View article]
    Boris,

    Not quite. I am interested in companies that have never **reduced** their dividend. The CCC list is more than that. GIS for example has never reduced its dividend but has also not increased it every year, so its current record on the CCC list is 12 years.
    Jan 26, 2016. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCL Attractive With 21.5% Yield And Deep Component Discounts To Book Value  [View article]
    goofus,

    You are correct about the next Monthly Valuation Date, pending the next announcement by UBS. However, I am not sure about your question. If you are asking about the -60% threshold for January 2016 (this month), then you need to look at the December 2015 Monthly Valuation Date, which was December 30.

    On Dec 30 2015, the Wells Fargo BDC Index closed at 712.7804. A decline of -30%, equivalent to -60% in the ETN, would put the index at 498.946. The low this month so far was on Jan 20, at 607.5488. That is a loss of -14.76%, or -29.5% in the ETN. As I write this comment the index is at 661.3269.

    Index quotes are here: http://tinyurl.com/zyn...
    Index chart is here: http://tinyurl.com/hzk...
    Jan 26, 2016. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An (Old) Way To Pick (New) Stocks  [View article]
    Do you know which companies on your list have never reduced their dividend? I know that GIS is one, but I don't know if any others qualify.
    Jan 26, 2016. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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