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  • The Surprising Link Between Stock Price Volatility And Returns [View article]
    cjcuthbert,

    I tried your algorithm two ways:

    First, as described.

    Second, did not multiply each individual result by 100. The output from STDEV was different by a factor of 100.

    Thus, either method works, as one might expect. Just be consistent when comparing results.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital Continues To Outperform All Other BDCs [View article]
    plug583,

    There is no simple answer to your question. Each BDC is different, so each must be analyzed separately.

    There are three major considerations.

    First, how will rising rates affect a BDC's interest costs?

    Second, how will rising rates affect a BDC's interest income?

    Third, how will rising rates affect the financial soundness of the companies a BDC invests in?

    Interest costs are a function of 1) the proportion of its debt carried at fixed interest, and 2) the terms of its variable rate debt. You have to analyze the weighted average cost of debt at various interest rates to get an answer. For those with no variable rate debt, rising rates will have no effect on costs and so would be unaffected. Those with no fixed rate debt would likely have their interest costs rise the most. Most BDCs are somewhere between these extremes.

    The effect on interest income can be analyzed similarly.

    However, the effect on its portfolio companies is mostly not visible, since BDCs invest either mostly or entirely in unlisted companies for which there is no public financial data.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which BDCs To Buy After Selling Prospect Capital? [View article]
    Bart and HYD:

    Look at HTGC: http://bit.ly/1Ix7b5M
    Jun 23, 2015. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital: An Investment For All Interest Rate Environments [View article]
    Bart,

    What does Portfolio123 mean by "and the dividends paid over the last 52 weeks"? Is this simply accumulated dividends, or reinvested dividends?
    Jun 23, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Surprising Link Between Stock Price Volatility And Returns [View article]
    For those of us who are not quite as on top of things as we would like, can you explain the process by which standard deviation is calculated for security prices. I would like to download some price history from Yahoo Finance (or some such) and then do my own calculations.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital: An Investment For All Interest Rate Environments [View article]
    Bart,

    31.01/14.9 = 2.081:1 = +108.1%
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital: An Investment For All Interest Rate Environments [View article]
    Invest Yourself,

    I also do not consider future dividends. Numbers I report for historical returns are just that - historical. My spreadsheet has a separate row for each of the future dividends that have been declared but not yet paid. The total return calculation for those rows are empty and will remain so until each dividend is actually paid.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital: An Investment For All Interest Rate Environments [View article]
    Michael Orwin,

    BartAtTheRanch made a very common mistake with percentages. Doubling is not +200%, it is +100%. Quadrupling is not +400%, it is +300%.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's NAV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation Compared To Several BDC Peers (Post Calendar Q1 2015 Earnings) - Part 2 [View article]
    Why no mention of MAIN's special dividends? They are becoming reliable, so I expected you to factor them into your calculations.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations, Goals And The Stock Selection Process [View article]
    "You do the best you can, with what you have, while you have it. And you keep an open mind to changes."

    Those are two of the guiding principles of my life.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations, Goals And The Stock Selection Process [View article]
    statisticool,

    Change is the only thing we can count on (even death is a change). Perhaps this is one reason why mutual funds and ETFs are popular with many investors. If you own a fund, you are implicitly expecting its managers to change the fund's investments as its conditions change, and you get institutional continuity of management that an individual cannot hope to duplicate. If you invest in individual securities, you must monitor those conditions yourself and make changes yourself, unless you never sell ala Buyandhold 2012.

    The fact that many of SBI's specific suggestions have not stood the test of time is not surprising at all and does not invalidate their emphasis on quality. What would have been surprising would have been little or no change.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital: An Investment For All Interest Rate Environments [View article]
    Bart,

    I would not rely on Yahoo Finance for accurate dividend information. The MAIN web site is authoritative. The fact that Yahoo disagrees is a warning about Yahoo.
    Jun 23, 2015. 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital: An Investment For All Interest Rate Environments [View article]
    $15.065 is all dividends paid to now and declared for payment through September. When the September payment is made, your original investment will have returned 101% in dividends.
    Jun 22, 2015. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For REITs In 2015 [View article]
    James,

    If someone is talking about a strategy or stock on TV, I would never know about it. I stopped watching all TV investing programs years ago, after finding Seeking Alpha.
    Jun 22, 2015. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital: An Investment For All Interest Rate Environments [View article]
    Bart,

    I calculate total dividends paid as of the most recent dividend payment date, and I also calculate the value of an initial investment with dividends reinvested, also as of the most recent dividend payment date (6/15/2015).

    If you had invested $10,000 in MAIN at its initial closing price of $14.90 on 10/09/2007, you would have bought 671 shares. With dividends reinvested on each succeeding payment date, then as of COB on 6/15/2015, you owned 1352 shares worth $42,758.
    Jun 22, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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