Seeking Alpha

Be Here Now

Be Here Now
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Be Here Now's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Realty Income: Why Now Is Not A Good Time To Sell This REIT Nugget [View article]
    What 'undervalued company with a good dividend and growth prospects' did you buy? I am looking for the same and have not found any.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Energy Exposure For BDCs [View article]
    koleff,

    Where is the evidence for 'maximal superior investment returns' of PSEC's CLO portfolio? I have not seen this anywhere.
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Energy Exposure For BDCs [View article]
    koleffstephan,

    >PSEC has minimal exposure and maximal superior investment returns<

    How did you arrive at "maximal superior investment returns"?

    When I do research on PSEC, I reach a very different conclusion. Starting at the first date on which longrundata.com can find a quote for PSEC, it has an annualized total return of 4.98%. SPY has beaten that handily at 8.16%.

    For an apples to apples comparison, look at MAIN. Starting at the first date on which longrundata.com can find a quote for MAIN, it has an annualized total return of 19.83%. PSEC has returned only 2.25% annually in that time.

    Please tell me what I am missing. Where is the PSEC maximality?

    Thanks for the PSEC but no thanks. I'll take MAIN.
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Energy Exposure For BDCs [View article]
    This illustrates how much incorrect dividend information there is on the Internet. NASDAQ and Divdata are not authoritative sources for dividend information, and if you rely on them, you may have an unpleasant surprise. Stick with company web sites and their SEC filings.
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: Why Now Is Not A Good Time To Sell This REIT Nugget [View article]
    I agree with your conclusion and I am long O and many other REITs.

    We have seen a number of articles and comments to the effect that rising rates will be a negative for REITs. In other words, when rates rise, REITs fall, and vice versa. I have done some research on this issue and have come to a different conclusion.

    I regularly compare the yield on the 10 year Treasury (TNX) to the price performance of VNQ.[1] You can see several different correlations. From early 2007 to the bear market low in early 2009, the Treasury yield and VNQ were correlated to the downside; conventional wisdom is that they should be inversely correlated. Since early 2009, the Treasury yield is virtually unchanged, but VNQ has been on a tear; no net correlation. However, if we look at individual years during that time we do see correlations. During 2011 and 2012, Treasury yields fell and VNQ rose. During 2013, yields rose and VNQ was unchanged. During 2014, yields fell and VNQ rose. As I write this, VNQ continues relentlessly up, as Treasury yields fall and inflation is dangerously close to becoming deflation. So the conclusions you reach depends on the time period you study.

    I found the same inconsistency in another study over a longer time span. What actually happens is that for short periods, roughly one year, there can be an inverse correlation between REITs and Treasury yields, but for longer periods, there is little or no correlation.[2]

    [1]http://on.mktw.net/1KT...

    [2]http://bit.ly/1eGmyMB
    Jan 20, 2015. 01:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 New Red Flags Waving [View article]
    "...they do not believe the Fed would not[?] be able to raise rates because there is very little economic growth both in sight and in the pipeline."

    I believe you did not mean to include the second 'not'.

    Thanks for the reminder about Dr. Copper[1]. Its message reinforces the recent pricing action in the TIPS market[2].

    All in all a thought provoking article.

    [1] http://bit.ly/1yDwWRk
    [2] http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 19, 2015. 11:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing Risk Versus Reward For High Yield BDCs [View article]
    Hardog,

    Check the dividend info on the PSEC web site[1]. Anything else you might read is an opinion, not a fact, including any opinions expressed by me.

    [1] http://bit.ly/Pecw9g
    Jan 18, 2015. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp: Why Now's A Good Time To Sell [View article]
    I'm with Chuck.
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp: Why Now's A Good Time To Sell [View article]
    Another exercise is a chart comparing the 10 year Treasury yield (TNX) to VNQ.[1]

    Since the bear market low in March 2009, the TNX has had a net change of close to zero, and VNQ has be almost straight up. If REITs were correlated with Treasuries, or inversely correlated with Treasury yields, you might expect that REITs would have been mostly flat. Not the case.

    What actually happens is that for short periods, roughly one year, there is an inverse correlation between REITs and Treasury yields, but for longer periods, there is little or no correlation. The charts in the article referenced above show the same effect, or lack thereof.[2]

    [1]http://on.mktw.net/1KT...

    [2]http://bit.ly/1eGmyMB
    Jan 18, 2015. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp: Why Now's A Good Time To Sell [View article]
    justaminute,

    You did not go far enough. A split means nothing.
    Jan 18, 2015. 11:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp: Why Now's A Good Time To Sell [View article]
    I find that dividend reliability is the number one SWAN factor for me, and O is at the top of that class. I would no more sell O than I would sell MO or VTR.
    Jan 18, 2015. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp: Why Now's A Good Time To Sell [View article]
    Depending on the time period, you can find direct correlations and inverse correlations. Very interesting article.
    Jan 18, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Weight And Rebalance Your Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    Cliff,

    Fidelity has an easy on-off toggle for dividend reinvestment.
    Jan 17, 2015. 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 BDC Issues For 2015: Part 6 [View article]
    TCPC is doing better than the group as a whole [1] by a considerable margin. This is an industry wide selloff.

    [1]http://yhoo.it/1xxsdLs#{%22range%22%3A%221y%...
    Jan 16, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Weight And Rebalance Your Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    I have a vague memory of the same article. My plan for rebalancing the TIRA I mentioned above is to not sell anything, take the RMD with dividend cash, and try to invest the remainder in existing positions to maintain the same $ dividend from each position. Emphasis on 'try', I do not expect this to work to the exact $.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,529 Comments
5,783 Likes