Seeking Alpha

Be Here Now

Be Here Now
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Be Here Now's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • VDC: If You Can Trade It For Free, It Belongs In Your Portfolio [View article]
    There is very little difference between VDC and XLP except that 1) VDC pays one dividend per year while XLP pays quarterly, 2) VDC expense is 3 basis points less than XLP, and 3) XLP is much more liquid. Investors who want regular income have voted with their checkbooks, and if I were to own one of these it would also be XLP.
    Aug 21, 2015. 01:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria: Dividend Increase On The Way, Here's What Investors Should Expect [View article]
    Oops is right. Mighty MO closed down today, not up.
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria beats by $0.03, beats on revenue [View news story]
    XLP was sold heavily yesterday and today, and mighty MO is a significant part of XLP. The recent runup in XLP (July and early August) was not confirmed by volume, unlike MO which ran up on strong volume. What this tells me is that the MO selling pressure is coming from ETF owners but not individual owners. Certainly not from me.

    I think this is part of a broader, market-wide pattern. The price action of the S&P over the past 8 months looks like a massive distribution top, the downside volume has been greater than the upside volume, and today the S&P broke down decisively through its 200 DMA.

    My prognostication is that we could easily be entering a period of significant price decline in SPY. If so, XLP will be sold down with SPY, just not as much, which is normal, and MO will be sold down to some extent with XLP.
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Not The U.S., Is Now Confirming The Austrian Thesis [View article]
    It was the Cuyahoga River, not the Hudson.

    I remember Japanese junk. Then along came the Z car.
    Aug 20, 2015. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Convert A Portfolio Of Index Funds To Dividend Stocks? [View article]
    If you want to convert your funds to dividend stocks, and are concerned about capital gains taxes, one simple strategy comes to mind:

    1) Calculate your current after tax yield from SPY (or whatever funds you own).
    2) Calculate your theoretical after tax net from selling SPY.
    3) Calculate your theoretical after tax yield from investing 2) in your selection of dividend growth stocks.
    4) If 3) is greater than 1) then you have a logical reason to bite the bullet and pay the capital gains tax.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10%-Yielding HDLV May Be A Good Choice If Interest Rates Remain Low [View article]
    The price / product supplements clearly state that they pay a coupon, which is consistent with being Notes (as in ETN). A coupon is interest so is taxed as ordinary income.
    Aug 20, 2015. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On UBS's ETRACS 2X Leveraged ETNs [View article]
    NV_GARY,

    Sorry, I do not follow CEFL so I have no idea.
    Aug 18, 2015. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On UBS's ETRACS 2X Leveraged ETNs [View article]
    The UBS web site publishes the components of each index[1].

    [1] http://bit.ly/1hzx2Nq
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis May Be Gaining Ground [View article]
    Michael,

    I have followed technicals for decades and my experience, like yours, is that when any correlation method becomes popular, it ceases to work. My experience is with Joe Granville and his On Balance Volume. When this was a niche method, it worked fairly reliably. Once it became well known, it ceased working. This is just one, there are many others; the Death Cross and the Golden Cross come to mind.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On UBS's ETRACS 2X Leveraged ETNs [View article]
    FrankEllis,

    "The current out-of-favor pricing is actually beneficial because distributions buy a greater number of shares at the lower price..."

    While this is true, there is a countervailing force working against you. To understand this you must understand what happens when leverage is reset each month.

    After the last trading day of a month, the Current Principal Amount [CPA] is recalculated. This is the indicative value at the close on that day. The absolute amount of leverage per share is adjusted to match the new CPA. If the new CPA is less than the previous CPA, then the absolute amount of leverage per share must be decreased. The only way this can happen is for UBS to sell some shares in the underlying index. This will cause the dollar amount of the next coupon to also decrease, assuming that the underlying index constituents do not change their dividends during that time.

    Thus, while your ETN share count increases with your reinvestment, the coupon amount per share decreases.

    If the new CPA is greater than the previous CPA then the exact opposite happens, and your DRiP is supercharged.
    Aug 17, 2015. 07:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis May Be Gaining Ground [View article]
    Black Monday exploded the EMH myth long ago.

    EMH = efficient market humbug
    Aug 17, 2015. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On UBS's ETRACS 2X Leveraged ETNs [View article]
    Fees are deducted from the indicative value, i.e. the NAV, with exceptions noted in the pricing supplements. The exceptions are the quarterly payers. One of the fees, I think the tracking fee, is deducted from the coupon amount. I researched this in the past but my memory is a bit hazy beyond the fact that one I researched did this, I don't remember which, but it was quarterly.

    For those who don't know, trades center closely around the indicative value.
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durability Test: W.P. Carey [View article]
    The foray into BDC lending is worrying. These are distinctly different businesses. I find it hard to believe that WPC could be as competent a small business investor (and advisor!) as MAIN or ARCC.

    This reminds me a bit of PSEC going into the REIT business. Diversification for its own sake? Conglomeration? I am at a loss to understand this.

    Once again, worrying.
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis May Be Gaining Ground [View article]
    There are more facts than anyone can possibly know or account for, therefore it is not possible to not ignore facts. All explanations are approximations.
    Aug 16, 2015. 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis May Be Gaining Ground [View article]
    Michael,

    The law of large numbers exempts no one. In your opinion, when will the law of large numbers catch up with AAPL? Is it already happening?
    Aug 16, 2015. 12:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,412 Comments
7,482 Likes